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Ssliasil's NFL Power Rankings---By Math. (weekly updates)

Forums - General Discussion - Ssliasil's NFL Power Rankings---By Math. (weekly updates)

Most Power Rankers base their rankings on opinion and win-loss percentiles...I've instead developed an equation that does the work for me, it works as follows...

Total yards / Opponents Total yards (X)

+

Points / Opponent Points (Y)

+ Or -

Turnover Ratio / 10(Z)

All / 3

= E

Or in semi-math terms...

(X+Y+Z) / 3 = E

The higher the Evaluation Score (E) the better....Round to the nearest hundredth


--------------------THE RANKINGS: Week 13----------------------



1.) Philadelphia Eagles --- (1.23 + 1.23 + 1.5) / 3 = ***** 1.32 *****

2.) New England Patriots --- (0.91 + 1.41 + 1.4) / 3 = ***** 1.24 *****

3.) Pittsburgh Steelers --- (1.10 + 1.40 +1.1) / 3 = ***** 1.20 *****

4.) Green Bay Packers --- (1.13 + 1.66 + .8) / 3 = ***** 1.196 *****

5.) Atlanta Falcons --- (1.04 + 1.30 + 1.0) / 3 = ***** 1.11 *****

6.) Kansas City Chiefs --- (1.12 + 1.24 + 0.7) / 3 = ***** 1.02 *****

7.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers --- (0.96 + 0.97 + 0.9) / 3 = ***** 0.94 *****

8.) New York Jets --- (1.17 + 1.15 + 0.4) / 3 = ***** 0.91 *****

9.) Chicago Bears --- (1.00 + 1.28 + 0.3) / 3 = ***** 0.86 *****

10.) Cleveland Browns --- (0.87 + 0.96 + 0.7) / 3 = ***** 0.84 *****

11.) New York Giants --- (1.32 + 1.24 - 0.1) / 3 = ***** 0.82 *****

12.) St. Louis Rams --- (0.94 + 0.97 + 0.5) / 3 = ***** 0.80 *****

13.) Baltimore Ravens --- (1.12 + 1.29 - 0.2) / 3 = ***** 0.74 ****

14.) New Orleans Saints --- (1.27 + 1.32 - 0.4) / 3 = ***** 0.73 *****

15.) San Diego Chargers --- (1.41 + 1.27 -0.5) /3 = ***** 0.726 *****

16.) Detroit Lions --- (0.97 + 0.91 + 0.1) / 3 = ***** 0.66 *****

17.) Oakland Raiders --- (1.02 + 1.05 - 0.2) / 3 = ***** 0.623 *****

18.) Houston Texans --- (0.96 + 0.90 + 0) / 3 = ***** 0.62 *****

19.) Tennessee Titans --- (0.81 + 1.12 - 0.2) / 3 = ***** 0.58 *****

20.) Indianapolis Colts --- (1.12 + 1.09 - 0.6) / 3 = ***** 0.54 *****

21.) Dallas Cowboys --- (1.01 + 0.88 - 0.3) / 3 = ***** 0.53 *****

22.) Washington Redskins --- (0.84 + 0.76 + 0) / 3 = ***** 0.533 *****

23.) Cincinnati Bengals --- (0.94 + 0.79 - 0.3) / 3 = ***** 0.48 *****

24.) Miami Dolphins --- (1.12 + .90 - 0.6) / 3 = ***** 0.473 *****

25.) Seattle Seahawks --- (0.78 + 0.83 - 0.2) / 3 = ***** 0.470 *****

26.) Denver Broncos --- (0.94 + 0.77 - 0.5) / 3 = ***** 0.40 *****

27.) Minnesota Vikings --- (1.12 + .90 - 1.1) / 3 ***** 0.31 *****

28.) Buffalo Bills --- (0.82 + 0.73 - 0.8) / 3 = ***** 0.25 *****

T29.) Jacksonville Jaguars --- (0.93 + 0.86 -1.1) /3 = ***** 0.23 *****

T29.) San Francisco 49ers --- (0.97 + 0.32 - 0.6) / 3 = ***** 0.23 *****

31.) Carolina Panthers --- (0.77 + .50 -0.7) / 3 = ***** 0.19 *****

32.) Arizona Cardinals --- (0.69 + 0.59 - 1.0) / 3 = ***** 0.09 *****


---------------------INTERESTING NOTES-------------------------


  • The Packers *By Far* sport the NFL's best scoring defense and the 7th best scoring offense, allowing just 15.2 points per game and 25.2 points scored per game; They hold a league leading 1.66 Score:Score Ratio.
  • The Chicago Bears Offense and Defense are playing at EXACTLY the same level with each posting and allowing 3604 yards respectively.
  • Statistically the Arizona Cardinals are BY FAR AND BEYOND the worst team in the league with a -10 Turnover Ratio and the leagues worst Yard:Yard ratio.
  • If things keep going this way for the 49ers, their opponents will have scored double their offensive points by week 17, and they STILL might make it to the playoffs!
  • Expect the top 4 to flip flop every week from here out, especially if the Packers and Patriots keep playing at such a phenomenal level.

 



...uhh...ill just put my favorite quote of all time here.

"Welcome to Pain, the second of three...You have dealt the first...now deal with me!!"

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Titans, you break my heart.



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Not really expecting this topic to take off considering 85% of the sites users are EEMEA, Canadian or South American, but i will continue to update this topic weekly for the few NFL fans here :P



...uhh...ill just put my favorite quote of all time here.

"Welcome to Pain, the second of three...You have dealt the first...now deal with me!!"

Interesting to see how some teams are rated: The Lions in 17th - they're better than their record would indicate indeed, but still a shock to see them so high. And my Rams ahead of the Ravens?? Just goes to show stats can't tell you everything I guess! 

Are you set on this equation or are you considering adding further variables? Strength of schedule perhaps, home/away records, amongst others?



Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned for Sega. - Jason Lee, Mallrats.

http://theaveragejoe.sportsblognet.com/ - Mainly American Football, snippets of Basketball, European Football and Hockey. 

If you just go by turnover ratios, you would also get already a good idea on who are going to be the most likely Super Bowl contenders. That is what power rankings are for, right?



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Oh I'll very likely add some more variables once I figure a way to mathematically include them.  I just wanted to do this to show how teams are performing based on their statistics rather than record like most PR, so im pretty set on doing it via Math heh.



...uhh...ill just put my favorite quote of all time here.

"Welcome to Pain, the second of three...You have dealt the first...now deal with me!!"

Ssliasil said:

Oh I'll very likely add some more variables once I figure a way to mathematically include them.  I just wanted to do this to show how teams are performing based on their statistics rather than record like most PR, so im pretty set on doing it via Math heh.


Oh it's a great way of looking at it, much like Hollinger's basketball rankings. Sure, some people might complain about certain positions but there's always a benefit to looking at base numbers as well as current form. 



Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned for Sega. - Jason Lee, Mallrats.

http://theaveragejoe.sportsblognet.com/ - Mainly American Football, snippets of Basketball, European Football and Hockey. 

Thoughi can probably update it later showing ESPN's Power Rankings as well as NFL.coms.  That wont be much of an issue.



...uhh...ill just put my favorite quote of all time here.

"Welcome to Pain, the second of three...You have dealt the first...now deal with me!!"

Shouldn't head to head games also play a factor? The Saints have beaten several of the teams ranked in front of them. Yards don't mean anything if you can't get the win. *looks at Rams, Browns, and Bucs*


Those three that high kinda stuck out to me.



outlawauron said:

Shouldn't head to head games also play a factor? The Saints have beaten several of the teams ranked in front of them. Yards don't mean anything if you can't get the win. *looks at Rams, Browns, and Bucs*


Those three that high kinda stuck out to me.


To be fair, 4 of the 6 games the Rams have lost have come by a combined 10 points or so, and the Bucs are 7-5 in arguably the best division in the league. Granted, they're quite high, but the Bucs are a top 12-13 team in my opinion, while the Rams shouldn't be too far out of the top 15. 

Personally, the biggest stand out is the Jacksonville Jaguars. The numbers say they're that bad, but their record suggests playoffs. Any ideas as to why they stand out so much from the formula?



Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned for Sega. - Jason Lee, Mallrats.

http://theaveragejoe.sportsblognet.com/ - Mainly American Football, snippets of Basketball, European Football and Hockey.