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Immortal on 05 December 2010
thx1139 said:

To early to tell.  BF weekend the Wii had the best deals.  BestBuy had huge supplies and had all 3 colors available for $169.95 and other retailers had great deals as well.  Since then the deals have been minimal.  I suspect that Wii was frontloaded for this weekend in NA.  So you saw Wii down YoY overall and only close because NA was up YoY and that was because of great deals.


While that's probably true, Wii had been getting closer to last year's performand anyway and would have been only slightly under its 2009 performance had it not been for the release of NSMB the week before. I doubt it would have been too much off last year even without the deals and, with DKCR, DEM and the increasing effect of the Red Wii in the holidays, it should still get close to my prediction as I do have it hugely under last year for this week, which hasn't had many deals going on according to your observations. Anyway, there's pretty much no doubt it'll be up YOY in EMEAA because of the bundles and should be enough to counter the YOY losses in Japan and then some so Americas can be a little down as well.



 

“These are my principles; if you don’t like them, I have others.” – Groucho Marx

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Immortal on 05 December 2010
Chibi.V.29 said:

Ok then i bet you that the wii will not have a market share of 50% in 2012 :D i would happily give you my girlfriend, my home and both my parents if you win cos you wont :D

Are you willing to put that on paper, :P?

Anyway, it's too early to make a bet right now since the Wii could suddenly just die randomly in 2011, but I'm willing to make that bet in mid-2011 if I still think it can have 50% market share.



 

“These are my principles; if you don’t like them, I have others.” – Groucho Marx

*Sound Of Rain on 05 December 2010
Immortal said:
*Sound Of Rain said:

I agree that the Wii will outsell its last years numbers! I also see the Wii having a very strong 2011 with its sales being at the 100 Million mark by years end. If anything 360 will be in trouble in 2011.


D:.

You stole my idea!

That was gonna be my next thread about how the Wii is gonna sell 100m before 2012, :P. It's actually pretty probable. Since Wii will probably be left at 84-85m by the end of the year (more if this prediction comes true), and it has Zelda SS, TLS, a possible DQX and VS, along with god knows how many other titles announced at E3, it should break 100m easily without a price cut.

Do you think that Wii could still outsell PS2 in lifetime sales worldwide? I am one of the few people who do...



Immortal on 05 December 2010
*Sound Of Rain said:
Immortal said:
*Sound Of Rain said:

I agree that the Wii will outsell its last years numbers! I also see the Wii having a very strong 2011 with its sales being at the 100 Million mark by years end. If anything 360 will be in trouble in 2011.


D:.

You stole my idea!

That was gonna be my next thread about how the Wii is gonna sell 100m before 2012, :P. It's actually pretty probable. Since Wii will probably be left at 84-85m by the end of the year (more if this prediction comes true), and it has Zelda SS, TLS, a possible DQX and VS, along with god knows how many other titles announced at E3, it should break 100m easily without a price cut.

Do you think that Wii could still outsell PS2 in lifetime sales worldwide? I am one of the few people who do...

Are you reading my mind or something, :P? I think it stands a very good chance. It'll only be barely though. Probably something like PS2 153m, Wii 155m.



 

“These are my principles; if you don’t like them, I have others.” – Groucho Marx

stopstopp on 05 December 2010
*Sound Of Rain said:
Immortal said:
*Sound Of Rain said:

I agree that the Wii will outsell its last years numbers! I also see the Wii having a very strong 2011 with its sales being at the 100 Million mark by years end. If anything 360 will be in trouble in 2011.


D:.

You stole my idea!

That was gonna be my next thread about how the Wii is gonna sell 100m before 2012, :P. It's actually pretty probable. Since Wii will probably be left at 84-85m by the end of the year (more if this prediction comes true), and it has Zelda SS, TLS, a possible DQX and VS, along with god knows how many other titles announced at E3, it should break 100m easily without a price cut.

Do you think that Wii could still outsell PS2 in lifetime sales worldwide? I am one of the few people who do...


Nintendo will stop making Wii's before it passes PS2, and will make a new system.



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thx1139 on 05 December 2010
Immortal said:
thx1139 said:

To early to tell.  BF weekend the Wii had the best deals.  BestBuy had huge supplies and had all 3 colors available for $169.95 and other retailers had great deals as well.  Since then the deals have been minimal.  I suspect that Wii was frontloaded for this weekend in NA.  So you saw Wii down YoY overall and only close because NA was up YoY and that was because of great deals.


While that's probably true, Wii had been getting closer to last year's performand anyway and would have been only slightly under its 2009 performance had it not been for the release of NSMB the week before. I doubt it would have been too much off last year even without the deals and, with DKCR, DEM and the increasing effect of the Red Wii in the holidays, it should still get close to my prediction as I do have it hugely under last year for this week, which hasn't had many deals going on according to your observations. Anyway, there's pretty much no doubt it'll be up YOY in EMEAA because of the bundles and should be enough to counter the YOY losses in Japan and then some so Americas can be a little down as well.

Why is it going to be up in EMEAA. It was down 75,000 from last year this past week. So all of a sudden it is going to go from down like 20% to up YoY.  I dont get it.

Also some one thinks the Wii could have 50% market share next year. That is comical. This Holiday is the last that the Wii will have a chance at winning out right over one of the consoles.  Reason being. Read  the recent NY Times article below.  More and more press will be saying things like this and more and more consumers will be aware of this.  This year the word just started, but next year that sentiment will be prevail.

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/03/technology/personaltech/03KINECT.html?_r=1&scp=2&sq=kinect&st=cse



Its libraries that sell systems not a single game.

Immortal on 05 December 2010
thx1139 said:
Immortal said:
thx1139 said:

To early to tell.  BF weekend the Wii had the best deals.  BestBuy had huge supplies and had all 3 colors available for $169.95 and other retailers had great deals as well.  Since then the deals have been minimal.  I suspect that Wii was frontloaded for this weekend in NA.  So you saw Wii down YoY overall and only close because NA was up YoY and that was because of great deals.


While that's probably true, Wii had been getting closer to last year's performand anyway and would have been only slightly under its 2009 performance had it not been for the release of NSMB the week before. I doubt it would have been too much off last year even without the deals and, with DKCR, DEM and the increasing effect of the Red Wii in the holidays, it should still get close to my prediction as I do have it hugely under last year for this week, which hasn't had many deals going on according to your observations. Anyway, there's pretty much no doubt it'll be up YOY in EMEAA because of the bundles and should be enough to counter the YOY losses in Japan and then some so Americas can be a little down as well.

Why is it going to be up in EMEAA. It was down 75,000 from last year this past week. So all of a sudden it is going to go from down like 20% to up YoY.  I dont get it.

The MKW and WFP bundles. The NSMB bundle took two weeks to really boost the Wii in EMEAA so I'm guessing the MKW bundle will do the same. With the WFP bundles on top of that... it's gonna sell a lot.

EDIT: For your other comment, I seriously doubt that's gonna affect Wii sales at all. The Wii stopped selling to people who are influenced that easily back in early 2009. Now, it's selling to people who won't just let peer/media pressure force them onto a console, Nintendo fans who haven't bought a Wii yet and people with budgets.



 

“These are my principles; if you don’t like them, I have others.” – Groucho Marx

TWRoO on 05 December 2010
Immortal said:
Chibi.V.29 said:
Immortal said:
Conegamer said:

Still, if that's the case, let's say the wii ends up 100k behind this year.

This is the year that the Wii has been "doomed" too many times to count, yet is only 100k behind the 360 which had Halo Reach, Slim model, Kinect, lots of advertising and a price cut. The Wii has had nothing but software and bundles. I think Nintendo has far more cards yet to lay on the table than 360, so I don't think anyone is worried!


Yeah, honestly, that's something HD fans seem to forget too many times (though I don't believe 360 had a price cut this year. I thought it had held price since 2008). Just because the Wii has been falling for a while and PS360 have been rising doesn't mean it'll continue. They seem to think that the Wii won't come first next year 'cause it's declining. They don't seem to realize that this is the year when both HD consoles peak and it's downhill for them too. If older market trends mean anything, they're gonna fall much faster. Wouldn't even be shocked to see Wii at 50% market share for 2011 or 2012.


I will quite happily make a bet with you this moment saying that the wii will not have a 50% market share XD in 2011

2011, actually, probably not. But I'd be willing to make that bet for 2012, even if the PS3 gets the price cut to $199.

Before you sign away your girlfriend... ignoring heavy adjustments, for the Wii to reach 50% marketshare it has to outsell the combined sales of the PS3 and 360 within your timeframe by 11 million.

for example if the Wii can somehow equal the HD twins between now and January, then somehow matches it's best year so far for 2011 (ie sells 24.4 million in 2011) then the combined sales of the PS3 and 360 would have to be less than 13.4 million. (which is a figure both of the HD consoles are going to at least get close to this year)



*Sound Of Rain on 05 December 2010
stopstopp said:
*Sound Of Rain said:
Immortal said:
*Sound Of Rain said:

I agree that the Wii will outsell its last years numbers! I also see the Wii having a very strong 2011 with its sales being at the 100 Million mark by years end. If anything 360 will be in trouble in 2011.


D:.

You stole my idea!

That was gonna be my next thread about how the Wii is gonna sell 100m before 2012, :P. It's actually pretty probable. Since Wii will probably be left at 84-85m by the end of the year (more if this prediction comes true), and it has Zelda SS, TLS, a possible DQX and VS, along with god knows how many other titles announced at E3, it should break 100m easily without a price cut.

Do you think that Wii could still outsell PS2 in lifetime sales worldwide? I am one of the few people who do...


Nintendo will stop making Wii's before it passes PS2, and will make a new system.

Wii is still selling over 1 Million during the Holiday's and is $200...Wii isn't going anywhere anytime soon.



Immortal on 05 December 2010
TWRoO said:

Before you sign away your girlfriend... ignoring heavy adjustments, for the Wii to reach 50% marketshare it has to outsell the combined sales of the PS3 and 360 within your timeframe by 11 million.

for example if the Wii can somehow equal the HD twins between now and January, then somehow matches it's best year so far for 2011 (ie sells 24.4 million in 2011) then the combined sales of the PS3 and 360 would have to be less than 13.4 million. (which is a figure both of the HD consoles are going to at least get close to this year)


I think we were talking about individual years, not altogether, :P. That's impossible, :P. I may be fanboyish, but I'm not delusional.



 

“These are my principles; if you don’t like them, I have others.” – Groucho Marx