My year end prediction speaks of my disagreement but I admire your big balls. If it does come true, kudos!

My year end prediction speaks of my disagreement but I admire your big balls. If it does come true, kudos!

Considering what I'm starting off with, I bet I'm gonna have a great reputation on here, :P.

I predict that, for the month of December 2010 as a whole, the Nintendo Wii will be up in terms of year on year sales. What this essentially means is that Wii will have a record breaking month of December for three years in a row.

My reasons for this prediction would be these:

1) The Wii is coming off a significantly larger Black Friday week in the Americas than last year. This is a good indication as to what the Wii may do later and also means that Wii will have more holiday momentum.

2) From now on, the Wii has a lot more hardware moving software left than it did last year. Last year, it only had the release of New Super Mario Bos. Wii in Japan (which was quite significant, unfortunately for this prediction). This year, it still has Donkey Kong Country Returns's in EMEAA and Japan as well as Epic Mickey's release in the Americas. Also, Super Mario All-Stars has yet to release outside of Japan as well. Also, Nintendo's most recent hardware moving titles such as Donkey Kong Country Returns in Americas and Epic Mickey in EMEAA have only been out for a week and may still push hardware in their respective regions. Finally, titles that were released a while ago, such as Just Dance 2 and Wii Party are only now picking up their pace and may yet assist in selling Wiis.

3) One really useful advantage that the Wii has this year that it did not have last year is bundles. Last year, it had but the traditional Wii Sports bundle. This year on the other hand, customers can choose from a bundle of Wii Sports/Resort or Wii Sports/NSMB in the US and Japan. In EMEAA, these two options are available alongside a Wii Sports/MK bundle and a Wii Sports/WFP bundle. These are all extremely popular and well known games and will most likely boost Wii sales heavily. To add on to this, the Wii that comes in the NSMB bundle is red and the Wii that comes in the other two bundles is black. Not only that, all these bundles include Wii Remote Plus remotes rather than traditional Wii Remotes.

Granted, these aren't the most convincing arguments, but pretty much everything indicates that it will perform better than last year. If nothing else, I am sure that the Wii will have a better December outside of Japan than last year.

Also, I refuse to be officially served crow until the entire month of December has passed, we have the NPD results for the month and any adjustments to be made in accordance with Nintendo's Quarterly Financials of Q3 have been made.

P.S. If Wii does really well but is not up YOY, don't downplay its sales by pointing at this thread. I'm pretty much the only one who thinks this can happen and it most definitely has not underperformed expectations. Oh, and I'm probably gonna edit this with an important argument I forgot or to correct a silly spelling mistake within the next five minutes, :P.

EDIT:

Just so that people can see what I'm predicting and what my chances are, I'll show Wii's sales by region in the weeks of December for last year:

Dec 5 WW 1.567m Americas 925k EMEAA 537k Japan 104k

Dec 12 WW 1.511m Americas 740k Japan 139k EMEAA 632k

Dec 19 WW 1.774m Americas 813k Japan 200k EMEAA 760k

Dec 26 WW 1.984m Americas 1.051m Japan 230k EMEAA 702k

Jan 2 WW 907k Americas 308k Japan 177k EMEAA 423k

This was the reason you were so disappointed a BF sales?

At any rate, yes, I see it happening, but only being above by, let's say 15,000 console AT THE MOST. If not, it will likely be just under.

Also, you know you said you thought you were missing something? You should have added a poll, to gauge a better opinion

When I read the sales data for last year I couldn't quite believe it. But that's why they call it Nintendo magic no?

Yeah, I thought that it would have been cool for the Wii to catch up with last year on BF, :P. Oh, and why do you see it happening just by a little bit? From now on, logically, the Wii should be at 1m next week and continue to float decently above par for the rest of the year in Americas. In EMEAA, it should be a little under next week, but grow at a faster rate due to bundles. Even though the Wii will be heavily down in Japan, huge gains in Americas and EMEAA will offset that more than just marginally.

Though, realistically, I can't see it being on par next week in Americas and not for most of the other weeks either, :P, so yeah, you're probably right, though I still believe it could be up by a few 100k.

Yeah, honestly, those umbers seem ridiculous -- the Wii has a larger gain after Black Friday than on it, xD. Nintendo magic, it is.

THE WII IS DOOOOOOMED!!!!!!1

NOOOOOOOOOOOOEEEEZZZZZ!!! :(

It's cool to believe that people still believe that this year wil be the downfall of the Wii etc., when, as you rightly say, Nintendo magic is keeping it alive.

Also, you explained to yourself the reason I think it'l only be up by a little, saves me typing time