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Wii Prediction

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Considering what I'm starting off with, I bet I'm gonna have a great reputation on here, :P.

I predict that, for the month of December 2010 as a whole, the Nintendo Wii will be up in terms of year on year sales. What this essentially means is that Wii will have a record breaking month of December for three years in a row.

My reasons for this prediction would be these:

1) The Wii is coming off a significantly larger Black Friday week in the Americas than last year. This is a good indication as to what the Wii may do later and also means that Wii will have more holiday momentum.

2) From now on, the Wii has a lot more hardware moving software left than it did last year. Last year, it only had the release of New Super Mario Bos. Wii in Japan (which was quite significant, unfortunately for this prediction). This year, it still has Donkey Kong Country Returns's in EMEAA and Japan as well as Epic Mickey's release in the Americas. Also, Super Mario All-Stars has yet to release outside of Japan as well. Also, Nintendo's most recent hardware moving titles such as Donkey Kong Country Returns in Americas and Epic Mickey in EMEAA have only been out for a week and may still push hardware in their respective regions. Finally, titles that were released a while ago, such as Just Dance 2 and Wii Party are only now picking up their pace and may yet assist in selling Wiis.

3) One really useful advantage that the Wii has this year that it did not have last year is bundles. Last year, it had but the traditional Wii Sports bundle. This year on the other hand, customers can choose from a bundle of Wii Sports/Resort or Wii Sports/NSMB in the US and Japan. In EMEAA, these two options are available alongside a Wii Sports/MK bundle and a Wii Sports/WFP bundle. These are all extremely popular and well known games and will most likely boost Wii sales heavily. To add on to this, the Wii that comes in the NSMB bundle is red and the Wii that comes in the other two bundles is black. Not only that, all these bundles include Wii Remote Plus remotes rather than traditional Wii Remotes.

Granted, these aren't the most convincing arguments, but pretty much everything indicates that it will perform better than last year. If nothing else, I am sure that the Wii will have a better December outside of Japan than last year.

Also, I refuse to be officially served crow until the entire month of December has passed, we have the NPD results for the month and any adjustments to be made in accordance with Nintendo's Quarterly Financials of Q3 have been made.

P.S. If Wii does really well but is not up YOY, don't downplay its sales by pointing at this thread. I'm pretty much the only one who thinks this can happen and it most definitely has not underperformed expectations. Oh, and I'm probably gonna edit this with an important argument I forgot or to correct a silly spelling mistake within the next five minutes, :P.

EDIT:

Just so that people can see what I'm predicting and what my chances are, I'll show Wii's sales by region in the weeks of December for last year:

Dec 5 WW 1.567m Americas 925k EMEAA 537k Japan 104k

Dec 12 WW 1.511m Americas 740k Japan 139k EMEAA 632k

Dec 19 WW 1.774m Americas 813k Japan 200k EMEAA 760k

Dec 26 WW 1.984m Americas 1.051m Japan 230k EMEAA 702k

Jan 2 WW 907k Americas 308k Japan 177k EMEAA 423k

Total WW 7.744m Americas 3.837m Japan 851k EMEAA 3.056m

EDIT 2:

Here are my predictions for the remaining weeks of the year:

Dec 4 Americas 750k Japan 50k EMEAA 500k WW 1.3m

Dec 11 Americas 800k Japan 100k EMEAA 700k WW 1.6m

Dec 18 Americas 850k Japan 125k EMEAA 850k WW 1.825m

Dec 25 Americas 1.1m Japan 150k EMEAA 950k WW 2.2m

Jan 1 Americas 300k Japan 125k EMEAA 450k WW 875k

Total Americas 3.8m Japan 550k EMEAA 3.45m WW 7.8m

So basically, Americas will be practically even for the Wii, Japan will be significantly down from last year and EMEAA will be up substantially. Also, the Wii will be down hugely for the first week, but up at least marginally for every week that follows, except the last one.

EDIT 3:

Here I'll post the sales that the Wii gets for each of these weeks and will update whenever we get new numbers and/or adjustments are made.

Dec 4

590,510 56,717 510,719 1,157,946

This doesn't look good. Whilst the others are marginally ahead of schedule, Americas is well below par. Adjustments may still occur, however, and it seems that the better deals will be around starting next week so, if EMEAA and Japan do as planned, it's still possible.

Dec 11

Why bother, :/? EMEAA comes in 125k behind schedule and MC claims Japan's 20k under. Good luck selling 950k in Americas...

Scratch that! Americas is 75k ahead(!!!!) so even though I'm off this week too, there's still a chance!



 

“These are my principles; if you don’t like them, I have others.” – Groucho Marx

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lousboi said:


Thank you for that intuitive and informative post. I can see the fallacy in my argument now.

:P.



 

“These are my principles; if you don’t like them, I have others.” – Groucho Marx

I see it! I SEE IT!



Above: still the best game of the year.

Beuli2 said:

I see it! I SEE IT!


Thank god. With all those views and no posts, I was thinking that I forgot some really obvious thing and everybody on VGC was cackling behind my back, :O.



 

“These are my principles; if you don’t like them, I have others.” – Groucho Marx

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Immortal said:
Beuli2 said:

I see it! I SEE IT!


Thank god. With all those views and no posts, I was thinking that I forgot some really obvious thing and everybody on VGC was cackling behind my back, :O.

Yeah, you kinda forgot to add that the Wii is doomed :/



Above: still the best game of the year.

Beuli2 said:
Immortal said:
Beuli2 said:

I see it! I SEE IT!


Thank god. With all those views and no posts, I was thinking that I forgot some really obvious thing and everybody on VGC was cackling behind my back, :O.

Yeah, you kinda forgot to add that the Wii is doomed :/

Darn it! I knew I'd forgotten something. Now this thread shall forever hang on the wall of shame, :(.

Well, I added last year's sales and if things continue the way they look like they're going to then Wii should be down every week in Japan, up every week but next (maybe even next) in EMEAA and sometimes up or down depending on the week in Americas.

Next week looks terrible though -- last year Wii went up 50% to over 9000, err, I mean, 900000, in Americas after BF. Don't know if that can happen again. I'll be pleasantly surprised if it crosses 800k. Japan had NSMBWii and this time it'll have nothing. 70k or so seems to be the upper limit for Wii sales in Japan next week, unfortunately. In EMEAA, with the MK bundle catching on (NSMB bundle only gave a real boost a week after its inception) and the WFP bundle, being up YOY is possible, but rather unlikely. I'd put it at around 500k.



 

“These are my principles; if you don’t like them, I have others.” – Groucho Marx

I don't think the Wii will be up in terms of year on year sales. But I'm expecting strong sales mainly in EMEAA because of the new bundles (maybe a record, who knows...). Moreover, I'm expecting strong sales in January and February because we will have the release of Mario Sports Mix in Americas/EMEAA and the release of The Last Story in Japan.



adsl said:

I don't think the Wii will be up in terms of year on year sales. But I'm expecting strong sales mainly in EMEAA because of the new bundles (maybe a record, who knows...). Moreover, I'm expecting strong sales in January and February because we will have the release of Mario Sports Mix in Americas/EMEAA and the release of The Last Story in Japan.


Why not? America has a lot more software and momentum than last year. It could be up YOY. Japan seems to be the only weak link here and I'm sure DKCR can remedy that to an extent.

Besides, it'll break Japanese records next year with TLS and DQX. If they're released around the same time in November or December, we could see the Wii doing something like 1m in a single week, xD.



 

“These are my principles; if you don’t like them, I have others.” – Groucho Marx

Immortal said:
adsl said:

I don't think the Wii will be up in terms of year on year sales. But I'm expecting strong sales mainly in EMEAA because of the new bundles (maybe a record, who knows...). Moreover, I'm expecting strong sales in January and February because we will have the release of Mario Sports Mix in Americas/EMEAA and the release of The Last Story in Japan.


Why not? America has a lot more software and momentum than last year. It could be up YOY. Japan seems to be the only weak link here and I'm sure DKCR can remedy that to an extent.


I hope I'm wrong, but I have been tracking the weekly sales in the last couple of moths and most of the times the Wii is down year on year. It's sad, but it's true. I would like to see the console braking new records again just to prove the analysts that Move and Knect can't stole the Wii marketing by releasing tons of copies of the Wii games.