I. Overfishing of the Blue Ocean

"What was once a Blue Ocean with a sole fishing vessel with a Nintendo logo and Mario's face on it is now accompanied by Sony and Microsoft vessels where fishing lines will tangle and red blood in the water will be apparent from land."

There's really no proof Sony or Microsoft are capable of this, at least anywhere near the level Nintendo is at. I'd give Kinect some time on the market (to gauge its success) before giving them the benefit of the doubt.

II. Complete, Entire, Utter Underestimation of Online Gaming

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III. Lack of Top Notch Western 3rd Party Support

Neither of the above stopped the Wii from dominating this gen, so I'm not sure why these are brought up. The third party bit especially, as that's something they plan on correcting (see 3DS) - which, if they do, will turn into a strength the Wii never had.

IV. Overreliance on an Unreliable Gaming Market

If Nintendo continues to release compelling software for this "unreliable" market, there isn't a problem.

V. Overreliance on Milked Out Memes

I actually don't understand what your point is here, could you clarify?

Dude this article of yours has so many flaws....

1-Nintendo created a blue ocean once, they can do it again.

2-Casual players and non-gamers before the Wii all ready has a concept in their minds now that says "Nintendo is fun"

3-With the support that the 3DS is getting there is no reason so that the Wii2 would not get the same support.

4-Nintendo main on-line plan will come up with the 3DS and will be fully effective on the Wii2

5-Iwata pretty much can make anything print money (A balance board for example)

5-Iwata pretty much can make anything print money (A balance board bathroom scale for example)

Nintendo is not some God company with a hidden secret to recreating US dollar mint presses. They got lucky with the Wii mainly due to abandoning the "core" gamer and focusing on the mothers and sisters with a gimmick, never done before control scheme to get them hooked. If this is the secret then Microsoft just one upped then with Kinect's revolutionary no controller device.

As for the 3DS, I will not pay more than $150 for a handheld. Last time I bought a handheld was in 2004, the Gameboy Advance, and I put less time on it that year than on my PS2.

Likewise, why would I plug $250 on a 3DS when I can pay at max $200 for an entry level iPhone and play games, take pictures, record video, and check the Internet? I value multiple uses for a piece of hardware over $200, Nintendo is not doing it with the 3DS.

1. Overfishing the Blue Ocean:

First of all, Sony and MS are not truely reaching Nintendo's blue ocean until they make a mega hit like Wii Fit or Mario Kart that has sold in the 20 million range. Thus far, they have not come near that. Kinect and Move do not count, as they are hardware, not games.

Second, even if they DO manage to discover the secret, the answer to this is simply that Nintendo must find a NEW Blue Ocean. Sony and MS may be trying to get to Nintendo's blue ocean, but judging from the games used by their respective motion controllers, they are doing an unsatisfactory job. Simply making your own version of a motion controller does not mean you are in Nintendo's blue ocean. It is the GAMES that they need to make change, and I don't see either company doing this, especially Sony. The controller is just a means to an end. Do not mistake similar control schemes to similar games and markets.

Nintendo simply will not allow Sony and MS to fight them in a red ocean. They tried that with Sega and only barely edged a victory, and got dominated when they tried it in the early 2000s against Sony and MS. For Nintendo, it is basically Blue Ocean or bust from here on out. The larger corporations will outgun Nintendo if they try to compete directly with them like they did with the Gamecube.

2. Underestimation of Online Gaming

I am having trouble seeing your logic on this one, as the Wii does not really emphasize fleshed out online gaming and yet it is Nintendo's most successful console to date. Why would the next Nintendo be any different? Local multiplayer is Nintendo's forte, so I wouldn't expect to see them abandon it anytime soon. Besdies, local multiplayer is one of the main features that makes home consoles unique and appealing. The HD consoles are taking a PC approach to multiplayer, which is, as you say, several people sitting alone in their rooms with headsets playing online. And not that there is anything wrong with that, but that is not what Nintendo prefers, and judging by the Wii sales compared to its competitors, it is not what the average gamer prefers either. Online multiplayer is fine, but local multiplayer should NEVER be neglected in favor of it.

3. Lack of Top Notch Western 3rd Party Support

Again.. It didn't hurt the Wii, why would it hurt Nintendo's next console? Of course more third party support would only help Nintendo, but Nintendo is a large enough and quality 1st party developer that they can almost singlehandedly keep their console alive on their own. I think it would better serve Nintendo to farm out some more franchises to second parties like they did with Metroid Prime, F-Zero, Other M, etc. That way they can be be more assured of quality and they'll be able to focus their attention on other games.

But if the 3DS is any indication, it looks like Nintendo is improving their third party lineup. At the end of the day though, this one is in the hands of the third parties. Nintendo can get on their knees and beg, but if the third parties do not want to make games for their console, Nintendo can't force them to obviously.

4. Overreliance on an Unreliable Gaming Market

This is a baseless and weak argument. People who buy a Wii are no different than people who buy HD consoles. They are not from mars. They are simply people who want good games. And there is no evidence to support that the Wii audience buys less games. In fact, they buy more. How many games on the HD consoles have sold 10 million?

And to counter your questions, how exactly can you be sure that the CORE gamers are reliable? If we look at the massive decline of the Japan games industry for instance, we can see that as of late they have not been reliable of all, and are taking up new hobbies. You (like most other hardcore gamers) are falling for this myth of "casual" gamers that magically come in droves and then dissapear.

V. Overreliance on Milked Out Memes

Did you consider that Other M didn't sell because it might just not be that good of a game? It is also littered with cutscene after cutscene, as well as very linear, limiting gameplay. It is a very cinema heavy game, and this is a quality that Wii and its userbase tends to be very against, as many are made up of retro gamers and the expanded audience. Nintendo overusing their mascots is a legitimate complain, but again.. didn't hurt the Wii.. why on earth would it hurt the NEXT Nintendo console? Mascots mean very little. It's the type of GAMES that Nintendo needs to make different. Mario Kart Wii has sold numbers in the 20 MILLIONS. Does that look like the fans are getting tired of that franchise to you?

Believe it or not, I also think there is a decent chance the next Nintendo console will not be #1. But you seem to be giving all the wrong reasons for it. You seem to be emphasizing that Nintendo must focus more on the hardcore, but it is this focus that got them in trouble with the N64 and Gamecube, and is part of the reason they started to decline in 2010.. You are criticizing things that MADE the Wii successful, and yet saying these SAME things will cause Nintendo to falter next gen.. Where is the logic in that?

If Nintendo declines next gen, there will be two major reasons for it. The first:
- They will have lost touch with the mass market again. They are already starting to do this with games like Galaxy 2, Kirby, and Other M.
- They will again fall for trying to fight MS and Sony directly, and beat them at their own game so to speak. This strategy failed with the Gamecube and it will fail if Nintendo tries it again. Look what happened when Nintendo went their own direction. They left the competition in the dust. Now instead of Nintendo conceding their strategy and making an HD console like everyone expected, the REVERSE has happened, and MS and Sony are now making motion controlled so called "casual" games.

Nintendo's next console could sell 200 million, or it could sell 20 million. It will all depend on their strategy, and if they try to keep in the spirit of the NES and the Wii by creating new gamers and appealing to the mass market, including retro gamers with "fresh" feeling games, OR if they try to compete head to head with the Goliath corporations and stress horsepower and an ever shrinking niche of hardcore gamers .

V. Overreliance on Milked Out Memes

I actually don't understand what your point is here, could you clarify?

There is one key point that many people overlook, Nintendo's recent domination with the Wii and DS just become real after a man named Satoru Iwata become the president, and for me he is the number one person in the industry and whiles he is at the command in nintendo with the help of Miyamoto & Co. i must say Nintendo is like a God company with the hidden secret to fell what people want and the moment when they want, and again its not the controllers or lack of it its the experience that u will get from the software that will make a difference and nintendo makes better games than anyone will do.

As for the 3DS a few words for u - GLASS FREE 3D - also, sorry but can the iphone 4 plays Avatar in glass free 3d ? can it play Resident Evils relevations ? can it takes 3d photos ? can it plays Resident evil revelations ? Dude IPHONE 4 DOES NOT HAVE BUTTONS (i rather buy a nexus 2)