2.2 million according to this, prologue had quite ab it of hype around it actually unlike GT5, it was also 3 years ago when there were hardly any big name games out for the PS3.

See this is exactly what i mean with the Playstation fanboys, see how defensive you all get so suddenly? if this was a Xbox game and i was saying it could do 8 million sales it would be a completely different story, thered all be whining about how it was impossible then.

GT5P came out early in 2008, there were hardly any big name franchise games for the PS3, even Motorstorm sold 3.5 million because there was nothing any good to buy for years thats why the sequel tanked. Everybodies hooked up on Call of Duty now its the biggest craze in gaming since Pokemon.

As i said nobody is talking about GT5, if Street Fighter is getting more web hits than Gran Turismo then it shows what little interest there is, and the games a few weeks away, something like that would never happen with Halo, GTA or COD yet this games supposed to outsell em all eh?

Like i said before when it comes to software sales Xbox trumps the PS3, Halo has more than doubled PS3s biggest exclusive MGS4 and GT5 is kinda the last chance for Sony fans to have a game on equal footing with Xboxs best. And theres obviously good reason why because it has sold very well in the past, however it wull certainly not outsell any of the previous 4 GTA games, it wont pass MW2s PS3 sales, it wont pass GTA4s sales. It will come out it will sell several million becoming the best selling PS3 exclusive and it will be considered a disappointment.

Then ill come back and ill say i told you so. I did it when people said Killzone 2 was gonna sell 3-4  million in a few months, i did it when people said Resistance 2 was gonna sell 2 million by Xmas, i did it when people said God of War 3 was gonna sell 5 million and become the best selling PS3 exclusive.

Every time i voice my opinion on something like this i try to be realistice, every time PS fanboys hate the truth and say "you mad" "Xbox fanboy" "you dont know what youre talking about" etc yet every single time ive been right and PS fanboys exaggerate their games.

Its 3m disk/download sales.

Even if 2.2 were true youd have to be pretty ignorant to think the full release wont easily pass that.

You shouldn't use install base arguements as anything. Halo: Reach for instance was released on an install base 3x the size of Halo 3, but it's only selling about 8% better. You could also argue that since PS3 has a smaller install base then PS1 and an even smaller install base than PS2, then GT games on PS3 will sell the most poorly of the bunce. After all PS1 GT games sold more poorly then PS2 GT's games.

Install base arguements are stupid, but 10 million is a reasonable estimate on GT5 sales. It's just not because the install base grew since GT5P.

1/10 install base is likely to make a difference, but not always (e.g. Halo 1) and where do we cut the line when a difference is made? 10x, 5x, 3x? My point was that you can make a userbase arguement on anything, and no matter how you make your userbase arguements there is always 1 against GT5, so I just avoid them all together

Also GT4 as GT3.5? Your not a big racing gamer are you? GT4 had over 600 cars, the first game to do so, where GT3 only had 170 or something like that. Also double the tracks. The engine may have been a very similar engine, but any racing fan would update their game because of all the new cars released in the 3 years between the two GT games, as well as the additional new cars.

I mean with that Logic, why is Forza 3 selling on par with Forza 2?

Comparing GT5/GT5P to GT4/GT4P is meaningless? ha! I guess comparing any two games is meaningless then..silly point.

For my comment on GT4P, GT games actually sell over long periods of time. Yes they are strongest in the first year, but it's not like a common FPS that gets 80% or more of it's sales in year one, and 40% of its lifetime sales in week 1. GT appeals to a broad audience, hardcore, casual, car nuts, parents, etc.

I also said hype is Japan is less. Overall GT5 hype is about the same as GT4, except in the Americas it it's probably a little less.

As for the thread itself, why would I add a poll? I don't care how well you think the game will do. I only want to get a list of reasons why people think it sell better, or worse then past installments. 10million is avergae for GT, so if you beleive that, then you must have a balanced number of pros/cons.

As for pros/cons, I can see loyal fans ignore the cons, and haters ignore the pros. So thats why I said in the OP that you should understand this is a subjective list. Doesn't have to mean anything.

Except I m comparing GT5 THE REAL ONE to GT5pro : the demo like game, while u are compared Halo4 to Halo3 that was not a demo BUT the very first MEGA anticipated Halo on 360.

and I NEVER SAID GT5 would do 10 M BECAUSE of the superior install base (as if it was the main reason !)

I SAID the superior install base will help GT5 to sell more that is why, du to other reason, I think it could do 10M LTD

http://www.polyphony.co.jp/english/list.html

Straight from the source.

VGChartz doesn't track digital distribution sales, so to be fair Halo 3 could be 1 million higher then it's posted at here, and other games on both the PS3 and 360 could be a little higher.

Alan Wake sold poorly because of Microsoft. The marketing budget for that game was a lot smaller then it should have been.

Everything else I 100% agree with, God of War 3 being the best example.

If I were comparing GT5 to GT5P then wouldn't I be saying 5 million sales for GT5 as well? So I dunno what your talking about. I only compared GT5 to GT4 and GT5P to GT4P. I only said GT5 sales compared to GT1-4 could be lower if we used an install base arguement (Since there are less PS3's then PS1's and PS2's).

As for your last comment, OKAY. lol enough with the caps, thats cool. I only said the supperior install base won't help much (look at Halo ~ 8%). However GT5 will get around (I think a bit less) then double GT5P sales because it's GT5 mainly, not a demo.

Considering Heavy Rain sold close to double Alan Wakes sales, I think Alan Wake sales were poor. Heavy Rain is a better game, but they both appeal to a similar audience, so it makes no sence that Alan Wake sold that much less then Heavy Rain. (800k vs 1.5 million). Also if you look at weekly sales, Alan Wake hasn't even made the top 200 in the past few editions, and Remedy cancelled the 3rd DLC. Remedy expected more sales, MS dissapointed me here. I wanted to see the game get within 300k of Heavy Rain (in reflection of quality).