Okay well It's probably a really bad idea posting a thread like this because all it's going to do is cause a flame war, and ultimatly get locked up, but I want to give it a try.

What I want to do is make a list of pros/cons as to why the game will sell better or worse then other GT games have in the past. As people put in their opinions I will add their logic to the pros or cons side. Please no estimates on sales, and respect your fellow forum members, people will have very different opinions, and a lot of people will follow theirs very strongly.

Also please no insulting other members. If you raise a valid point, but do so with added insults to another member, I will just ignore your post until you or someone else says it without talking down to someone with a different opion. No one here is an analyst, so this list is completly subjective. Many of the points listed in the Pros/Cons sections will likely have little to no effect, so don't be offended because they are listed.

DAMMIT!!! There is a typo in the thread topic, and I can't fix it. It's suppose to say Success or Failure.....

Pros

-Improvement in Game Design: The game has been rebuilt from the ground up, with improved graphics, physics, incorporation of a dynamic weather system, day and night cycle, redesigned career mode (GT Life), Improved Photo Mode, PS Eye head tracking, and machine damage, which was only present in GT2 before. (Cross-X, Michael-5)

-1,000 Plus Cars, more then any other racing game

-20 Track Locations, with over 70 track variations, more then any GT game except GT4 (Cross-X)

-New features such as NASCAR, Kart-Racing, and a Track editor (Cross-X, Michael-5)

-Lack of compedetive racing games on the PS3. NFS, and Midnight Club have lost popularity, and the only other new compeditors are Codemaster's games, and Motorstorm (oniyide)

-Delays may have built hype(ethomaz)

-First occurance of Lamborghini and Bughatti in a console GT game (In older GT games, Lamborghinis was modeled, but sold unter another name)

-Limited Edition Blue GT5 PS3 Bundle (Japan only). Google it, it's gorgeous!! Also Limited edition Collecters Edition Bundle with a GT5 faceplate in Europe, and possibly Americas.

-This GT has taken the longest time to develop, and has had the most expesnive budget (cost 100x more to develop then GT1). Generally games in development this long sell well because of the sheer quality of the game. Also games of this calibur are rarely designed to make a profit in software sales, but designed to make a profit by pushing console sales. A good analogy is Ocarina of Time, as it too had the longest development cycle, and highest review scores in the franchise (also in Video game history, but thats besides the point).

Neutral

-Brand Power. It's GT, so it's likely to sell as well as other GT's (CGI-Quality, Michael-5)

Cons

-Long 5 year wait, fans may have moved onto other franchises, on different consoles or may have just lost interest alltogether (BengaBenga, Michael-5)

-No set release date, it may release "all of a sudden" for the more casual audience, or they might just not realize when it's released, and get other games this holiday season.

-The gaming industry has changed in the past 5 years.  A lot of people have changed their gaming habbits and shifted towards FPS or third person shooters, as shown by the amount and popularity of FPS games. (damndl0ser)

-Game Design Flaws: Other current gen simulations do not have these issues - Only cosmetic damage to most cars (paint scratch, penalties for large collisions), structural deformation limited to a small fraction of playable vehicles. Also some cars will be very expensive to get, collecting them may be close to impossible. Still No Porsche, Only 70 track variations, GT4 and Forza Motorsport 3 have more.(Cthulhu, Michael-5)

-GT4 Prologue, (an essentially Japanese exclusive Prologue), sold 6.76% more units then GT5P in Japan in about 1/3rd the time (12 months vs 33 months). The hype for this game may be a lot weaker in Japan. Note: The game was released in europe a mere month before the release of GT4, so ignore GT4P sales in EMEAA.

-When GT3 and GT5 were reveiled, they were "showcase" software for their respective consoles. However GT3 released early into the consoles lifetime, when the game still had the wow factor, and before other "showcase" games appeared. GT5 has been delayed so frequently, that wow factor has disappeared and other "showcase" games have been released in the meantime. (thx1139) I would also like to add, this is one reason why GT1 also was more successful. (Michael-5)

-Segmentation of the (hard) core market this gen is greater than previous gens (ImJustBayuum)

-No PS3 game has yet crossed the 10 million total, why will GT5 be different(Note: MW2 will likely get around 10 million lifetime sales)? GT games generally sell as well as the best selling console games (GT1 was 1st on PS1, GT2 was 3rd, GT3 was 2nd on the PS2, and GT4 was fifth). In order for GT5 to do as well as past GT games, it would have to get the same sales as MW2 at least. (Frieza, Michael-5)

-Will most likely not be bundled as exensively as GT3 was in Americas, so even if it manages to sell well, it most likely will not surpass the 11 million barrier other GT games have not surpassed.

what other franchises would they move on to???? Its not like they are throwing out racing games like FPSs. and the sim racing games are even rarer, the only game I know that is like GT5 is Forza and if you dont have a 360 that game might as well not exist

So a lack of competitive Racing games on the PS3? Other then NFS (which has seen better days), the PS3 doesn't seem to me to have as many racing games. Sure there is Motorstorm, F1 2010 and other Codemaster racers, blur, Mod Nation Racers, and Ferrari Challenge among others. However the big local compeditors NFS, Midnight Club, Test Drive, have all reduced in popularity.

I put this as a pro under your name, if you don't like the way I labeled it, just ask me to change it and I will.

which would be in favor FOR GT5, none of those games you mentioned outside of the Codemasters are a SIM racer, so GT5 doesnt really have any competition. Its kinda of like comparing Street Fighter to Tekken sure there both fighters but the game mechanics are different enough that they really dont compete directly against each other IMO.

Were there any other SIM racers on the PS2/PS1? How is the situation on the PS3 different?

Also to more casual gamers that comparision between Street fighter and Tekken may be invalid. I'm not a big fighting game fan, but when Street Fighter IV came out I debated getting it or Soul Calibu 4 used (a very different fighter). Ended up with SC4.

Of course GT5 will be sold extremely well. It's GT after all.

But I do think the delay will have caused a lot of people to have lost interest, so it will likely sell less than its potential.

Anyway, just buy the best racer this  gen: GRiD

Not sure there's ever been a whole lot of casual appeal to GT games. GT games seem to be for serious gamers. NFS, kart racing and other arcade style racing games are for the cfasual crowd I think. So point 3 under the cons might not be all that big of a factor.

Cons? Impossible GT is GT after all.

The hype today is bigger than last month or year... the delay worked in favor to Sony.

I did say that some of these factors might not make a big difference, if any. It's a subjective list.

IMO I think a large portion of GT5 sales are to casual gamers. Don't you think someof the sales are to people who are just looking for a good racing game, one with real world cars? Imagine if Parents want to buy their kid a PS3 and want a good E-rated game, doesn't racing naturally come into mind?

Using Halo as an example (it may be poor). Halo 3 outsold Killzone 2 almost 5 to 1. Is it 5 times better of a game, that has 5 times as large of a fanbase? Bet a lot of those sales are because casual gamers recognize Halo as "the FPS" and when looking at Killzone, they just might not know what it is.

I would put this under the cons.  The gaming industry has changed in the past 5 years.  Lots of people have changed their gaming habbits and went towards FPS or third person shooters.  I think the gigantic sales of these games are proof that people have moved over from racing and platformers etc...  

While I do believe GT 5 will have really good sales, it simply will not have the kind of sales the previous games have had.   Unless of course Sony decides to bundle it for the next year or 2.