I do agree that more delays only hurt GT5 and that a vague release date also hurts it but I do believe that its release will be "holiday season"-ish and, thus, I include a GT5 boost for the PS3 over the holidays even though that the boost will be less than it would be if it hadn't received yet another delay.

You were right to assume a bump, despite the delay. I'm just saying (and it looks like you agree) that the longer the game is pushed back into the 'holiday season' the less of an overall bump the PS3 will get during the holidays. It'll still get one, no doubt, but it won't be as great.

i agree with ur last statment. the mario anniversary Wii should keep Wii atlest 1m ahead of the hd consoles.

I`m the first to say that Kinect will SELL but we got to realize something: Wii sold like crazy because it was a novelty (Wii remote) and because of Wii Sports.
From all the games i have seen, i haven`t seen one that might appeal to people as Wii Sports appealed and that`s why Wii will have a chance. Nintendo has already proved that they can make games to are liked by casual and core gamers and that is in people`s mind to this day - casual gamer or not.
If i were Nintendo i would maximize my marketing to remember people of that while mentioning new titles like Wii Party - perfect for the holiday season -, DKR, Kirby, Just Dance 2 - perfect for the holiday season -, Goldeneye, Black Ops, Epic Mickey, etc.

For me, Nintendo has the nostalgia factor going for them as well as great upcomong games. If they don`t know how to use that it will be a shame.

Would you care to make a bet?

Possibly but i really doubt it. The holidays are going to belong to the 360 and the PS3.

It wont.  Considering that the PS3 right now is the evolution of the wii; and the half billion budget behind kinect publicity; the Wii has no chance unless they make a price cut of $50-100.

some evolution. can't even beat its predecessor

anyways, i don't know too much about release dates, but if it's as the OP says and only kirby and epic mickey, then there's a good chance it won't outsell the twins. are DKC and Wii party not coming out this year? because if they are, i don't see why it can't beat both HD consoles (not combined)

It's noot just Kirby and Epic Mickey.

It's DKC, Kirby, Wii Party, Just Dance 2, Goldeneye, and Epic Mickey (and Black Ops, but that' not an exclusive). I believe It all depends how much of an effect the Kinect $500 million marketing campaign will have.

Though some will disagree, imo it will show which is stronger - a critical mass of games (which I believe is what the Wii has this holiday season, though on their own they are not console movers) or a huge, HUGE marketing campaign.

I see things more or less this way:

Japan - Wii 1st, PS3 2nd, X360 3rd

America - X360 1st, Wii 2nd, PS3 3rd

Europe - PS3 1st, Wii 2nd, X360 3rd

Now how much hardware they'll sell and which one shall come on the top overall is pretty hard to predict but my bets are with the PS3 since it will be a close second in Japan, a close third in Americas and a distant first in Europe due to GT5.

While I felt tempted to say Wii will get smashed, he was the one smashing last holidays but you had a 2D Mario game. I doubt DKCR will be anywhere close to it, and it will be a big deal for me if it sells more than 4m or so. But still the Wii is the Wii.