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10 Week Countdown 2010

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theprof00 said:

Is this a standard measure for determining accuracy?

EDIT: ah nevermind the questions about the formula, it's an average to smooth out bias towards under and over predicting.

I've been wondering a little about it myself. I'd heard that stock markets use a system where a 2% increase on day one and a 2% decrease on day two brings you on exactly the same value. While when you would normally use percentages it would be 100*1,02*0,98 = 99,96.

I searched for it and a site told me it is: (new - old) / ((new plus old)/2)

So I compared its effects to our own equation and it seems they are pretty much the same for the range: 50% underpredicting to 100% overpredicting.

More extreme under and overpredicting does show significant differences

 

Take real sales at 100

if you had predicted 0 or infinity our method results in infinity points while the other method results in 200 points max.

This other method penalties bigger mistakes in predicting less hard.



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theprof00 said:

tagged

let's see some scores!, looks like koffieboon is off to a roaring start

EDIT: oh roo, can you send me the spreadsheet?

nevermind, does anyone know the formula for point totaling? Is it simply the difference between predicted and actual?

 

Also, despite my low ps3 prediction, I'm very happy with those sales.

Roaring start??? I lowballed everything, partly because of the upward adjustments in Others. And next week will certainly see the same problem with specifically PSP.



And so my process of submitting at the last minute and doing absolutely no research shows it's true colours.



Some very credible sources are saying GT5 will release on 30th November in US....1st December in EU, 2nd in Japan

LOL



All hail the KING, Andrespetmonkey

non-gravity said:

If TWRoO doesn't mind me posting them (because I can imagine you would want to do this for your own game) these are the results

I too lazy to compose the Handheld table, but BHR-3 won.

 

Squilliam is very impressive.

He is quite impressive, always being civil, good debater.

On other thoughts, are you going to keep up with these tables weekly? That would be great appreciated. Don't worry about handhelds tables, but if you have time include them in the future. cool, and gooh job.



What is with all the hate? Don't read GamrReview Articles. Contact me to ADD games to the Database
Vote for the March Most Wanted / February Results

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Michael-5 said:

On other thoughts, are you going to keep up with these tables weekly? That would be great appreciated. Don't worry about handhelds tables, but if you have time include them in the future. cool, and gooh job.

Last year I think TWRoO did:

A weekly totals table to see who won the week. (though now we have might have 3 if we do weekly console, handheld and overall table)

Besides that there were rankings for Wii, PS3, 360, DS, PSP, Consoles, Handhelds and Overall that combined all weeks.

 

It is rather a lot of work and TWRoO kept this up each week last year. I'm going to be free every Friday (when the numbers mostly come up) so I'll see what I can do.



Handheld table

  Entrant DS PSP Week 1
1 BHR-3 13 5 18
2 postofficebuddy 12 14 26
2 theprof00 7 19 26
4 jonop 4 24 28
5 Michael-5 10 19 29
6 kopstudent89 32 5 37
7 Carl2291 17 24 41
8 Rainbow Yoshi 20 22 42
9 darthdevidem01 17 26 43
10 haxxiy 32 14 46
11 snfr 13 35 48
11 TWRoO 13 35 48
13 Veggie 13 41 54
14 non-gravity 20 35 55
15 Luthor 32 24 56
16 koffieboon 24 35 59
17 smeags 32 35 67
         
  Mr.Average 18 23 41

Ow wow I learned how to sort these tables in Excel. This is gonna be so much easier :p



@non-gravity, can I ask how you coloured your tables?

To get a background colour on a column like that is way too much effort using VGC tables... but yours seem to be styled differently too.



TWRoO said:

@non-gravity, can I ask how you coloured your tables?

To get a background colour on a column like that is way too much effort using VGC tables... but yours seem to be styled differently too.

I took the Excel table to Word 2007 first and then just posted to them here.

It seems this does keep the Excel tables intact.



Ah, weird... and cool... that should save me a lot of time as none of the formatting sticks when you copy from excel.