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Forums - Sales Discussion - 10 Week Countdown 2010

Edited week 1 and week 2 on my PS3 prediction chart.

Total is now up to 6295k as a result of things.



                            

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Lol, except for the 360 (by only 16k), I predicted less then average on every console. Man, I know I'm going to be wrong, system sales always jump more in the holidays then I expect.



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I am close of Mr Average except for the Wii of course...



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Michael-5 said:

Lol, except for the 360 (by only 16k), I predicted less then average on every console. Man, I know I'm going to be wrong, system sales always jump more in the holidays then I expect.

I am less than average on them all but DS (my current predictions are not the same as shown on VGC as I just edited them), I think people are expecting more of Kinect than (imo) it can manage to increase sales, whilst I think fans of Wii are remembering last years incredible turn-around but perhaps fogetting the price-cut and Wii Fit shortly before the 10 weeks, and NSMB during.... I generally underestimate PS3 slightly so perhaps I should bring that up to scratch to avoid it being my downfall. I think people are assuming the 3DS imminent release will impact DS sales more than it will... personally I think the current DS hardware market has probably not even heard of the 3DS.... while PSP I believe is on more of a decline than people seem to realise, and people predicting it to have a price cut are taking a risk (which will likely pay off if there is a cut, but otherwise not)

Oh, and Wii's "Mr. Average" is inflated by almost 200k by Luthors prediction alone



guys

Guys

guys

There is a GRAN TURISMO awards ceremony on Wednesday.......Yamauchi-San will be there

Its called SEMA.....google it if you want

Its HEAVILY HEAVILY likely that GT5's release date will be announced at it

PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE let us edit till THURSDAY TWROO

PLEASEEEEEEEEEEEE

{the sales for the week won't be out till Friday anyway!}



All hail the KING, Andrespetmonkey

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theprof00 said:
darthdevidem01 said:
postofficebuddy said:
darthdevidem01 said:
theprof00 said:

wow darth wii down over 55% from last 10 weeks 2009 o.0

Trust me I TRIED to make it higher...in fact I have literally randomly added 100K near the end for 3 weeks....otherwise it was even lower

The problem is I simply don't see a remedy for price cut and NSMB wii this year.

Not to mention we need to consider that MOVE/Kinect MIGHT eat into Wii's potential market

I can't make up imaginary figures for Wii and I can't buy into the "It sells amazing during holidays" thing either because there were legitimate reasons for its last years holiday performance.

I might edit the figure and make it higher tomorrow.....but right now I can't see how I can make it higher.


I have the same conundrum. I really am trying to justify an increase in several weeks. I just keep coming up short, primarily because of how I think things will play out in Japan. I know everyone mocks the whole 'Wii iz doomzed' thing but I really do think things have taken a turn for the worst for the Wii there. I really, really hope I'm wrong.

Yeah I am also trying to "justify" increasing its sales

But I just can't find a justification.....I mean looking at its current sales compared to last year and the year before

Then seeing how increases generally wok out....

Its hard.......

It was harder "assuming" week 7 will be GT5 week though!

howabout the fact that it's still the cheapest console, and will be bouyed by things like metroid, kirby, and dkc and typical walmart deals.

Keep in mind that this is a recession year in the US, and there are going to be a hell of a lot of sales.

Metroid? Please

considering the backlash the game got, and the fact that its trending below all recent Metroid games in sales....it aint selling consoles in the holidays.

Kirby...maybe

DKCR...yes this is a wild horse

I can't assume Walmart deals will happen....they could happen for PS3, PSP, DS or 360 too



All hail the KING, Andrespetmonkey

darthdevidem01 said:

guys

Guys

guys

There is a GRAN TURISMO awards ceremony on Wednesday.......Yamauchi-San will be there

Its called SEMA.....google it if you want

Its HEAVILY HEAVILY likely that GT5's release date will be announced at it

PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE let us edit till THURSDAY TWROO

PLEASEEEEEEEEEEEE

{the sales for the week won't be out till Friday anyway!}


What, did you talk to ioi? We'll already have a slight advantage in predicting week 1 on Wednesday anyway.



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5. Super Street Fighter 4

darthdevidem01 said:

guys

Guys

guys

There is a GRAN TURISMO awards ceremony on Wednesday.......Yamauchi-San will be there

Its called SEMA.....google it if you want

Its HEAVILY HEAVILY likely that GT5's release date will be announced at it

PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE let us edit till THURSDAY TWROO

PLEASEEEEEEEEEEEE

{the sales for the week won't be out till Friday anyway!}


Or we could wait until next year when Gran Turismo 5 releases just in time for the 10 week countdown 2011.



darthdevidem01 said:
theprof00 said:

howabout the fact that it's still the cheapest console, and will be bouyed by things like metroid, kirby, and dkc and typical walmart deals.

Keep in mind that this is a recession year in the US, and there are going to be a hell of a lot of sales.

Metroid? Please

considering the backlash the game got, and the fact that its trending below all recent Metroid games in sales....it aint selling consoles in the holidays.

Kirby...maybe

DKCR...yes this is a wild horse

I can't assume Walmart deals will happen....they could happen for PS3, PSP, DS or 360 too

True, but you also should take into account the typical wii user isn't a dedicated type of gamer, and how wii tends to be a christmas gift type of console. People who simply aren't into games would put off getting one until christmas time.

Anyway, I can't expect them to drop more than 4.5m in sales from last year. That would truly be a debacle.



TWRoO said:
Michael-5 said:

Lol, except for the 360 (by only 16k), I predicted less then average on every console. Man, I know I'm going to be wrong, system sales always jump more in the holidays then I expect.

I am less than average on them all but DS (my current predictions are not the same as shown on VGC as I just edited them), I think people are expecting more of Kinect than (imo) it can manage to increase sales, whilst I think fans of Wii are remembering last years incredible turn-around but perhaps fogetting the price-cut and Wii Fit shortly before the 10 weeks, and NSMB during.... I generally underestimate PS3 slightly so perhaps I should bring that up to scratch to avoid it being my downfall. I think people are assuming the 3DS imminent release will impact DS sales more than it will... personally I think the current DS hardware market has probably not even heard of the 3DS.... while PSP I believe is on more of a decline than people seem to realise, and people predicting it to have a price cut are taking a risk (which will likely pay off if there is a cut, but otherwise not)

Oh, and Wii's "Mr. Average" is inflated by almost 200k by Luthors prediction alone

Yea, I can easily find my name becaue I'm under Luthor in Wii, he really expects Wii to do well.

As for 3DS, I think a lot of people know about it, my dad knew about it and he doesn't even play games. It's pretty epic, 3D gaming. However most people don't know when the 3DS is comming.

As for Kinect, to be honest, I think I underestimated it still despite having an average estimate on sales.

As for PS3, I think the average looks about right, no real exclusives this fall except for GT5 with no known release date and Move, which I can't see pushing PS3 ALL Holiday.

We can all be wrong about Wii if they make, even a slight price cut, and it would be smart for Nintendo to make a price cut the day Kinect releases. Also I think DKCR, and a Red Wii Anniversary edition should push some console sales.

PSP is the hard one to predict IMO, after God of War, what does it have? It's popularity has dropped substantially, and PSP Go might see a crazy price cut like in Japan.



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