By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales Discussion - NPD to STOP reporting monthly hardware sales (Starting right NOW) :(

Bitmap Frogs said:
makingmusic476 said:

Ultimately, however, I think ioi's lack of detailed citations for his sources is a large part of why sites like GAF will have trouble ever accepting his data


This is a real problem.

Brett has never come clean about his sources, probably because they're so few that it's impossible for him to get consistent data. The proof is in the pudding: Brett has consistently missed trend changes, his margin of error is not within 10% as it's often tossed around here - it's around 10% averaging everything (which means big spikes happen) and only on the big ticket numbers.

Ultimately this means his numbers are not reliable.

GAF staff might not like Brett but since his numbers aren't good, there isn't room to argue. 

Personally, I'll pray for leaks to force NPD's hand and save the day.

First of all, as was said earlier, if you don't have faith in the numbers, why are people here.

But more to the point, I imagine it is hard to get good solid information on smaller titles. They have never been part of the NPD public releases. And where the numbers have been small, small errors become bigger (proportionately).

Plus, if you are trusting NPD, remember whom they don't include (Toys R Us and Wal-Mart), which might make the data very different on some games.

Mike from Morgantown



      


I am Mario.


I like to jump around, and would lead a fairly serene and aimless existence if it weren't for my friends always getting into trouble. I love to help out, even when it puts me at risk. I seem to make friends with people who just can't stay out of trouble.

Wii Friend Code: 1624 6601 1126 1492

NNID: Mike_INTV

Around the Network

From comments on Wired: 

http://www.wired.com/gamelife/2010/10/npd/#comments

Posted by: johnlucas | 10/13/10 | 7:41 am |

There’s no excuse for this ignorance. It’s time for another competitor to step in & run NPD out of this realm. VGChartz is just the start. There’s no reason for all of this cloak & dagger secrecy. If the game industry wants to hit the bigtime then it’s going to have to act like a bigtime industry. TV has Neilsens, Movies have Box Office, Music has Billboard. If they can do this on a weekly basis in Japan, there’s no excuse for this BS in America. While some don’t care about the numbers, others want to have a deeper understanding of how the videogame industry works. Do your job NPD or get out.
John Lucas



Read More http://www.wired.com/gamelife/2010/10/npd/#comments#ixzz12Gl8E2HC


      


I am Mario.


I like to jump around, and would lead a fairly serene and aimless existence if it weren't for my friends always getting into trouble. I love to help out, even when it puts me at risk. I seem to make friends with people who just can't stay out of trouble.

Wii Friend Code: 1624 6601 1126 1492

NNID: Mike_INTV

mike_intellivision said:

Plus, if you are trusting NPD, remember whom they don't include (Toys R Us and Wal-Mart),

NPD has the data from Wal-Mart since last year (was announced on their website)



mike_intellivision said:

From comments on Wired: 

http://www.wired.com/gamelife/2010/10/npd/#comments

 

Posted by: johnlucas | 10/13/10 | 7:41 am |

There’s no excuse for this ignorance. It’s time for another competitor to step in & run NPD out of this realm. VGChartz is just the start. There’s no reason for all of this cloak & dagger secrecy. If the game industry wants to hit the bigtime then it’s going to have to act like a bigtime industry. TV has Neilsens, Movies have Box Office, Music has Billboard. If they can do this on a weekly basis in Japan, there’s no excuse for this BS in America. While some don’t care about the numbers, others want to have a deeper understanding of how the videogame industry works. Do your job NPD or get out.
John Lucas

Agreed. I have never seen GfK American numbers published (yes, they track Americas, too). Time for them to step up?



drkohler said:
mike_intellivision said:

Plus, if you are trusting NPD, remember whom they don't include (Toys R Us and Wal-Mart),

NPD has the data from Wal-Mart since last year (was announced on their website)

No, they don't have data from Wal-Mart since last year. What they do have is polls of customers who leave Wal-Mart. consumer tracking != retail tracking.

They have it on their website - http://npd.com/corpServlet?nextpage=consumer-tracking_s.html




If you drop a PS3 right on top of a Wii, it would definitely defeat it. Not so sure about the Xbox360. - mancandy
In the past we played games. In the future we watch games. - Forest-Spirit
11/03/09 Desposit: Mod Bribery (RolStoppable)  vg$ 500.00
06/03/09 Purchase: Moderator Privilege  vg$ -50,000.00

Nordlead Jr. Photo/Video Gallery!!! (Video Added 4/19/10)

Around the Network
Bitmap Frogs said:
makingmusic476 said:

Ultimately, however, I think ioi's lack of detailed citations for his sources is a large part of why sites like GAF will have trouble ever accepting his data

This is a real problem.

Brett has never come clean about his sources, probably because they're so few that it's impossible for him to get consistent data. The proof is in the pudding: Brett has consistently missed trend changes, his margin of error is not within 10% as it's often tossed around here - it's around 10% averaging everything (which means big spikes happen) and only on the big ticket numbers.

Ultimately this means his numbers are not reliable.

GAF staff might not like Brett but since his numbers aren't good, there isn't room to argue. 

Personally, I'll pray for leaks to force NPD's hand and save the day.

Has NPD revealed their sources?



Switch Code: SW-7377-9189-3397 -- Nintendo Network ID: theRepublic -- Steam ID: theRepublic

Now Playing
Switch - Super Mario Maker 2 (2019)
Switch - The Legend of Zelda: Link's Awakening (2019)
Switch - Bastion (2011/2018)
Switch - Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (2014/2017)
3DS - Star Fox 64 3D (2011)
3DS - Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney (Trilogy) (2005/2014)
Wii U - Darksiders: Warmastered Edition (2010/2017)
Mobile - The Simpson's Tapped Out and Yugioh Duel Links

theRepublic said:
Bitmap Frogs said:
makingmusic476 said:

Ultimately, however, I think ioi's lack of detailed citations for his sources is a large part of why sites like GAF will have trouble ever accepting his data

This is a real problem.

Brett has never come clean about his sources, probably because they're so few that it's impossible for him to get consistent data. The proof is in the pudding: Brett has consistently missed trend changes, his margin of error is not within 10% as it's often tossed around here - it's around 10% averaging everything (which means big spikes happen) and only on the big ticket numbers.

Ultimately this means his numbers are not reliable.

GAF staff might not like Brett but since his numbers aren't good, there isn't room to argue. 

Personally, I'll pray for leaks to force NPD's hand and save the day.

Has NPD revealed their sources?


Last I heard, they quoted direct tracking over 50% of the market (60 something % I guess?) and estimated the remaining (mostly, Wall Mart and Toys'r'Us).

@Mike: dude, really. Are you proposing for vgchartz to become a sect? I'm sorry for you, but I think ioi's numbers have a long way to go before being 100% legit. Heck, you are acknowledging yourself this site depends on NPD's public releases - which for all we know, might be the reason behind their move. Afterall, everytime they release information they're just helping Brett polish his formulas.





Current-gen game collection uploaded on the profile, full of win and good games; also most of my PC games. Lucasfilm Games/LucasArts 1982-2008 (Requiescat In Pace).

Bitmap Frogs said:


Last I heard, they quoted direct tracking over 50% of the market (60 something % I guess?) and estimated the remaining (mostly, Wall Mart and Toys'r'Us).

@Mike: dude, really. Are you proposing for vgchartz to become a sect? I'm sorry for you, but I think ioi's numbers have a long way to go before being 100% legit. Heck, you are acknowledging yourself this site depends on NPD's public releases - which for all we know, might be the reason behind their move. Afterall, everytime they release information they're just helping Brett polish his formulas.

My point was that I wondered why someone would come to this site for data if they did not trust the data for their use.

It is not 100% accurate -- but no one's data is -- not even NPD.  But almost everyone seems to bow down to NPD data as if it were perfect.

Most people don't even realize that not having Wal-Mart and Toys R Us has the potential to introduce bias into NPD. (They estimate these using past trends -- but this generation is not like the past).  Customer surveys help -- but they have their own issues.

Also, while it is safe to say that the VGC used to correct based upon NPD (and other tracking) data. But those associated with the site have noted that in this thread that shipment data is now used to make corrections.

Finally,  the bigger errors seemed to have come on smaller releases -- which never get any public data. So we don't know how well NPD does on them either.

Mike from Morgantown



      


I am Mario.


I like to jump around, and would lead a fairly serene and aimless existence if it weren't for my friends always getting into trouble. I love to help out, even when it puts me at risk. I seem to make friends with people who just can't stay out of trouble.

Wii Friend Code: 1624 6601 1126 1492

NNID: Mike_INTV

Bitmap Frogs said:

Last I heard, they quoted direct tracking over 50% of the market (60 something % I guess?) and estimated the remaining (mostly, Wall Mart and Toys'r'Us).

@Mike: dude, really. Are you proposing for vgchartz to become a sect? I'm sorry for you, but I think ioi's numbers have a long way to go before being 100% legit. Heck, you are acknowledging yourself this site depends on NPD's public releases - which for all we know, might be the reason behind their move. Afterall, everytime they release information they're just helping Brett polish his formulas.

The two trackers in Japan each claim to cover a different 90% of that market.  Even then they can get very different results from each other.



Switch Code: SW-7377-9189-3397 -- Nintendo Network ID: theRepublic -- Steam ID: theRepublic

Now Playing
Switch - Super Mario Maker 2 (2019)
Switch - The Legend of Zelda: Link's Awakening (2019)
Switch - Bastion (2011/2018)
Switch - Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (2014/2017)
3DS - Star Fox 64 3D (2011)
3DS - Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney (Trilogy) (2005/2014)
Wii U - Darksiders: Warmastered Edition (2010/2017)
Mobile - The Simpson's Tapped Out and Yugioh Duel Links

I think the Japan trackers each cover 50% of the market, not 90.