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GT5 vs Forza 3: GT5 will?

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GT5 vs Forza 3: GT5 will?

match first week forza 3 sales (250,000) 32 7.84%
 
double (500,000) 36 8.82%
 
triple (750,000) 40 9.80%
 
x4 (1,000,000) 59 14.46%
 
x5 (1,250,000) 23 5.64%
 
x6 (1,500,000) 218 53.43%
 
Total:408

Yeah. As much as I have been critizing GT5 delays and lack of advertising lately I'm getting the feeling it's sales will be pretty much like the previous ones once it gest out. Depending when it releases it could sell over 5m in three weeks, 2m and some week one.



 

 

 

 

 

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This thread has 1 fatal flaw.

Forza 3 opened to 250k Americas week 1 sales.

Worldwide week 1 sales were closer to 500k

Most people here are voting for GT5's worldwide week 1 sales, but your only comparing the data for Forza 3's Americas sales.

So my prediction, Americas 500k, worldwide, 1.5-1.8 million.



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Michael-5 said:

This thread has 1 fatal flaw.

Forza 3 opened to 250k Americas week 1 sales.

Worldwide week 1 sales were closer to 500k

Most people here are voting for GT5's worldwide week 1 sales, but your only comparing the data for Forza 3's Americas sales.

So my prediction, Americas 500k, worldwide, 1.5-1.8 million.

nope according to VG chartz Forza's first week sales were 250,000 world wide 

now there is already 250,000 american pre orders so its already bet it

and sorry i had too low of numbers you can only have 6 slots and its too late to change. 

those who predicted 250,000 have failed from not reading the OP



Of Course That's Just My Opinion, I Could Be Wrong

mchaza said:
Michael-5 said:

This thread has 1 fatal flaw.

Forza 3 opened to 250k Americas week 1 sales.

Worldwide week 1 sales were closer to 500k

Most people here are voting for GT5's worldwide week 1 sales, but your only comparing the data for Forza 3's Americas sales.

So my prediction, Americas 500k, worldwide, 1.5-1.8 million.

nope according to VG chartz Forza's first week sales were 250,000 world wide 

now there is already 250,000 american pre orders so its already bet it

and sorry i had too low of numbers you can only have 6 slots and its too late to change. 

those who predicted 250,000 have failed from not reading the OP

Forza Motorsport 3 week 1 sales were 470,692 according to VGChartz

http://www.vgchartz.com/game.php?id=30434

If your using weekly sales ending October 24th, 2009, then of course Forza Motorsport 3 only sold 246,536 units, but this was before the game was even released in Americas, and only accounts for 2 days of EMEAA sales, and 3 days of Japanese sales.

If your blatently going to ignore Americas week 1 regional sales simply because the game came out a week later in Americas, thats just making an unfair comparision.



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GT5 can outsell Forza3 whithin a fortnight (Japan sales will probably help but it's possible) IF it releases no later than mid-december.



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Right now, I don't feel the hype that can push this game past 2 mill first week... But i could be wrong.



Michael-5 said:
mchaza said:
Michael-5 said:

This thread has 1 fatal flaw.

Forza 3 opened to 250k Americas week 1 sales.

Worldwide week 1 sales were closer to 500k

Most people here are voting for GT5's worldwide week 1 sales, but your only comparing the data for Forza 3's Americas sales.

So my prediction, Americas 500k, worldwide, 1.5-1.8 million.

nope according to VG chartz Forza's first week sales were 250,000 world wide 

now there is already 250,000 american pre orders so its already bet it

and sorry i had too low of numbers you can only have 6 slots and its too late to change. 

those who predicted 250,000 have failed from not reading the OP

Forza Motorsport 3 week 1 sales were 470,692 according to VGChartz

http://www.vgchartz.com/game.php?id=30434

If your using weekly sales ending October 24th, 2009, then of course Forza Motorsport 3 only sold 246,536 units, but this was before the game was even released in Americas, and only accounts for 2 days of EMEAA sales, and 3 days of Japanese sales.

If your blatently going to ignore Americas week 1 regional sales simply because the game came out a week later in Americas, thats just making an unfair comparision.

Fine for me. Also consoles should be compared launch-aligned, then.



Stwike him, Centuwion. Stwike him vewy wuffly! (Pontius Pilate, "Life of Brian")

A fart without stink is like a sky without stars.

TGS, Third Grade Shooter: brand new genre invented by Kevin Butler exclusively for Natal WiiToo Kinect. PEW! PEW-PEW-PEW!

        

Alby_da_Wolf said:
Michael-5 said:
mchaza said:
Michael-5 said:

This thread has 1 fatal flaw.

Forza 3 opened to 250k Americas week 1 sales.

Worldwide week 1 sales were closer to 500k

Most people here are voting for GT5's worldwide week 1 sales, but your only comparing the data for Forza 3's Americas sales.

So my prediction, Americas 500k, worldwide, 1.5-1.8 million.

nope according to VG chartz Forza's first week sales were 250,000 world wide 

now there is already 250,000 american pre orders so its already bet it

and sorry i had too low of numbers you can only have 6 slots and its too late to change. 

those who predicted 250,000 have failed from not reading the OP

Forza Motorsport 3 week 1 sales were 470,692 according to VGChartz

http://www.vgchartz.com/game.php?id=30434

If your using weekly sales ending October 24th, 2009, then of course Forza Motorsport 3 only sold 246,536 units, but this was before the game was even released in Americas, and only accounts for 2 days of EMEAA sales, and 3 days of Japanese sales.

If your blatently going to ignore Americas week 1 regional sales simply because the game came out a week later in Americas, thats just making an unfair comparision.

Fine for me. Also consoles should be compared launch-aligned, then.

But, how will you know exactly how many copies get included in the console bundle?

Also speaking of bundles, GT5 will be bundled with the console at launch, and in Japan they get that damn sexy blue PS3. My prediction for 1.5-1.8 million units is for non-bundled units.



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Michael-5 said:
Alby_da_Wolf said:
Michael-5 said:

[...]

Forza Motorsport 3 week 1 sales were 470,692 according to VGChartz

http://www.vgchartz.com/game.php?id=30434

If your using weekly sales ending October 24th, 2009, then of course Forza Motorsport 3 only sold 246,536 units, but this was before the game was even released in Americas, and only accounts for 2 days of EMEAA sales, and 3 days of Japanese sales.

If your blatently going to ignore Americas week 1 regional sales simply because the game came out a week later in Americas, thats just making an unfair comparision.

Fine for me. Also consoles should be compared launch-aligned, then.

But, how will you know exactly how many copies get included in the console bundle?

Also speaking of bundles, GT5 will be bundled with the console at launch, and in Japan they get that damn sexy blue PS3. My prediction for 1.5-1.8 million units is for non-bundled units.

Bundled copies aren't trackable precisely, unless manufacturers or developers release their data.

About your prediction, I don't know, GT4 did around 40% better than that with a starting user base twice as bigger, but for GT3 we have weekly data only for Japan, and just there it did more than 550k 1st week with a PS2 user base in Japan that was just ~4.4M, while now PS3 is 5.7 there, and what's more, PS2 WW was around 11M when they launched GT3 in the rest of the world, while PS3 is more than 38M WW now.

I guess also that the choice of the new launch date could change GT5 first week quite wildly, a reliable prediction is almost impossible.



Stwike him, Centuwion. Stwike him vewy wuffly! (Pontius Pilate, "Life of Brian")

A fart without stink is like a sky without stars.

TGS, Third Grade Shooter: brand new genre invented by Kevin Butler exclusively for Natal WiiToo Kinect. PEW! PEW-PEW-PEW!

        

Alby_da_Wolf said:
Michael-5 said:
Alby_da_Wolf said:
Michael-5 said:

[...]

Forza Motorsport 3 week 1 sales were 470,692 according to VGChartz

http://www.vgchartz.com/game.php?id=30434

If your using weekly sales ending October 24th, 2009, then of course Forza Motorsport 3 only sold 246,536 units, but this was before the game was even released in Americas, and only accounts for 2 days of EMEAA sales, and 3 days of Japanese sales.

If your blatently going to ignore Americas week 1 regional sales simply because the game came out a week later in Americas, thats just making an unfair comparision.

Fine for me. Also consoles should be compared launch-aligned, then.

But, how will you know exactly how many copies get included in the console bundle?

Also speaking of bundles, GT5 will be bundled with the console at launch, and in Japan they get that damn sexy blue PS3. My prediction for 1.5-1.8 million units is for non-bundled units.

Bundled copies aren't trackable precisely, unless manufacturers or developers release their data.

About your prediction, I don't know, GT4 did around 40% better than that with a starting user base twice as bigger, but for GT3 we have weekly data only for Japan, and just there it did more than 550k 1st week with a PS2 user base in Japan that was just ~4.4M, while now PS3 is 5.7 there, and what's more, PS2 WW was around 11M when they launched GT3 in the rest of the world, while PS3 is more than 38M WW now.

I guess also that the choice of the new launch date could change GT5 first week quite wildly, a reliable prediction is almost impossible.

I think you read my other post in "GT5 will fail...." for that 40% better. GT4P sold 40% better then GT5P in Japan, and it was released only a year before the launch of GT4, where GT5P had 2 years.

As for user base, I don't really corrolate sales with user base. As Halo shows, Halo 3 had a 40% attach rate, but Reach only has about 12%, and it's still selling better. Early into a consoles life, there is little to no competition, and games have long periods of time to sell. Thats why I think GT1 and GT3 sold better then GT2 and GT4.

The only attachment rate arguement I make is that GT1 and GT3 sold better then GT2 and GT4, and GT5 is being released late into the consoles life, like GT2 and GT4. Also with PS3 total sales likely to be about 2/3rds PS1 sales, and half PS2 sales, it would be substantially more difficult for GT5 to sell as well as prior GT's. I mean GT's on PS2 did outsell GT's on PS1 generally, so I expect GT5 to sell 1-2 million worse then past GT games. 



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