30 million?! Bwahahahahaha! 

I don't understand this comment:

"The kinect is like the SegaCD and is a type of an Expansion onto the console again with its own games but no hybrids."

How does Kinect have no hybrids? What is Child of Eden, Harry Potter, Forza, and Fable 3? Those are all hybrid games that either can be played with controller and Kinect or they have sections just for Kinect. All hybrid games will have a front cover that says "BETTER WITH KINECT SENSOR"

The Kinect is not like the Sega CD because the developer can release a game on 1 disc that supports both controller and Kinect. With Sega CD the developer had to make the game for both Genesis cartridge systems and Sega CD disc systems. The capabilities of the Sega CD and the Genesis were widly different (Sega CD could have video clips and much more advanced audio) while the capabilites of a Kinect game and non-Kinect game are virtually the same.

There are 3 kinds of Kinect hybrid games:

1.) Play entire game how you choose with controller or Kinect. ie. Child of Eden

2.) Play part of the game with controller and part with Kinect. ie. Harry Potter

3.) Play the game with both Kinect and controller at the same time. ie. Racing game with head tracking

As far as trying to predict long term sales, I think it's a pointless exercise because it largely depends upon what Nintendo's response is to Kinect.

Some people can't decide if it's an eyetoy , the new sega cd or the new sega 32x. One thing is certain ....that for these people it will simply be the stuff of their nightmares when the first sales' numbers start coming in....

I agree with the initial post, except I think more then 1-3 games will be sold on the hardware. I think the average will be like 2.5-3, so 2-4 games seems more plausible. Eyetoy is only a 2D camera, and doesn't have the same library of games as the Kinect, Kinect owners will definatly have more Kinect games.

BTW, for pricing, you can get a Kinect/360 Arcade bundle for $300 in US. Thats only 1.5 times as much as a Wii, and it probably won't hurt Wii sales too much, but I think it will push 360 sales, especially for those torn between getting an HD console, or a Wii (as a 360 Kinect is an HD console, with substantial motion gameplay games).

P.S. Kinect will have hybrid games. As in games like Forza Kinect will be playable with a steering wheel or the typical controller, but also playable with Kinect. If you include those games, Kinect owners should have 3-4 games on average that are Kinect usable. Kinect is a bit differenct then the Sega CD, but your comparision is still pretty valid.

Yeah about the Eyetoy comparison:

"Now i would like to say that the closest thing to compare to the Kinect is the EyeToy and that is exactly what is going to happen to the Kinect, it will follow the exact same path as the eye toy in my opinion."

Kinect already has more 3rd party support in just it's launch day lineup than the Eyetoy had in it's entire run. Kinect also has a billion dollar marketing campaign backing it up including TV ads, a massive promotional tour, a major Burger King promotion including Burger King games and Kinectimals toys, a Justin Bieber concert tour promotion, etc. Sony never put this much advertising support behind Eyetoy. Microsoft is financing and promoting Kinect like a new console launch. 

Designed for EyeToy

These games require the EyeToy to be played. All produced by Sony unless noted.

    * 2003
          o EyeToy: Play
          o EyeToy: Groove
    * 2004
          o Disney Move (Ubisoft)
          o EyeToy: Antigrav
          o EyeToy: Monkey Mania
          o EyeToy: Play 2
          o Nicktoons Movin' (THQ)
          o Sega SuperStars (Sega)
          o U Move Super Sports (Konami)
    * 2005
          o Clumsy Shumsy (Phoenix Games Ltd. [UK/NL])
          o EyeToy: Chat - a videophone system for use with the network adapter
          o EyeToy: EduKids
          o EyeToy: Kinetic
          o EyeToy: Operation Spy (known as SpyToy in Europe)
          o EyeToy: Play 3
          o Yetisports Arctic Adventure (JoWooD Entertainment AG)
    * 2006
          o Eyetoy: Kinetic Combat
          o Eyetoy: Play Sports
          o Rhythmic Star (Namco)
    * 2007
          o Bob the Builder (Blast! Entertainment Ltd)
          o EyeToy: Astro Zoo
          o Thomas & Friends: A Day at the Races (Blast! Entertainment Ltd)
    * 2008
          o EyeToy Play: Hero
          o EyeToy Play: PomPom Party

The big "what if" for me around Kinect is whether MS would consider making it mandatory - i.e. say early next year having it bundled with every new 360.

I think they seem willing to take a modest loss if necessary to get Kinect into living rooms, or at least cut any profit on 360 sales down to break even, so I could actually see MS do this.

If they do, then of course unless 360 sales collapse - which seems pretty unlikely - then Kinect would sell very well indeed as every new owner would have one whether they use it or not.

This approach would also mean most new 360 owners would at least dabble in some Kinect titles and further bolster the platform.

By making Move an accessary Sony are taking a very big risk it simply sells to a minority of owners.

MS I think are determined to try and push Kinect to a majority of owners - at least going forward - and making it effectively mandatory would do that.

On the other hand, we all know one of the main Xbox team who left was complaining that MS wouldn't listen to him when he said Kinect should be mandatory, so maybe they will take the same route as Sony and just have it as an optional accessary.

Honestly I think that the total number of Kinects sold won't be known to the public.

Microsoft will just call it a success, or saying it met their expectations.

Nonetheless, we should look at kinect performance to get a glimpse of what the nextbox may be.

Well Wii Fit and Wii Fit Plus did very well, and they too are optional peripherals. The 360 doesn't have the same audience, but I can definatly see a few 5 million selling Kinect games (other then Kinect Adventures). A Wii with a Wii Balance board is the same price as a 360 Arcade/Kinect bundle, so you never know.

I think Kinect will sell 3 millions lifetime or less, as well as Move.

Yup.  Agreed.  My point is simply, if I was MS I wouldn't make Kinect optional.  I'd make it mandatory in that it's bundled with every 360 console going forward.