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My Prediction on Kinect sales

Forums - Sales Discussion - My Prediction on Kinect sales

first off, I would like to say that this is my opinion but I have had it for a while now and would like to hear other people's opinion.

Now i would like to say this while i am at it, the Kinetic and MOVE are not the same, shouldn't be compared and in entire different categories. the move is a different controller like the analog for the PS1 in where that had its own analog only games and hybrids like the Move. The kinect is like the SegaCD and is a type of an Expansion onto the console again with its own games but no hybrids.

Now i would like to say that the closest thing to compare to the Kinect is the EyeToy and that is exactly what is going to happen to the Kinect, it will follow the exact same path as the eye toy in my opinion. 

the kinect will sell big at first, so in this Q4 of 2010 and Q1 of 2011 will be the biggest period for Kinect sales, as it will be a Must have for 360 owners. It wont sell big on people buying the console just for the Kinect since its far to expensive, especially since its main market is the already Wii owners who can buy 2 wii's for one kinect/360 bundle. And since the 360 market is small due to splitting with 360 and PS3 in half and with the audience of 360 causal gamers who play violence games like halo, cod, gow they are not the type to turn around and buy kinect animal game. but people will buy on simply they want to have the 'New Thing" like 3D tv and the sega CD, but since the market is limited by 360 sales here is my sales numbers predicition. 

Q4 2010-Q1 2011 -> 2-5 million sales 

Q2 2011 -> on wards -> 5-15 million sales

Life time sales: 15-20 million units which will be 1/5 of 360 owners depending on the 360 sells 75 million units by 2015. 

While that isn't bad, but software sales will be very limited, this type of hardware will see that its owners buy 1-3 games each, just like the eye toy with most people buying the one game that came with it and thats it nothing else. Kinect will be the same, as i cant see people buy titles for the kinect in large numbers and since none are hybrid publishes wont make top quality games for a limited market and if we are to see poor software results from kinect titles post release, then there will be a cut in kinect titles since it will be too expensive. 

Kinect will last a year then fade away, Wii stayed alive due to a strong first party support from 20 years of games from Nintendo and an already existing fan base and also it was cheap. Kinect has an small fan base with its already existing fanbase not connected to the type of Kinect games. Move has its hybrid titles to keep the controller selling steadly. But kinect will rise then decline. I cant see people standing up and full body movement all the time for gaming, Wii users sit down majority of the time. 

 



Of Course That's Just My Opinion, I Could Be Wrong

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I cant see people standing up and full body movement all the time for gaming, Wii users sit down majority of the time. 

 


I just want to comment on this.

 

I'm an athletic guy, I love moving around and I've been playing sports since I was 3 years old, but when it comes to video games, I hate having to display that type of physical exertment. What I just quoted from you is the exact reason why I'm disliking Move and Kinect at the moment, and why I will most likely not be able to play Skyward Sword with the WMPlus for longer than 20 minutes at a time. It's not relaxing. I play video games in a relaxed state.



I think that prediction is extremely optimistic.

I'm expecting 10 million at the most, and even that seems too optimistic to me.



Sounds like reasonable estimates.  Though I wouldn't be surprised if M$ eventually eliminated the non-kinect SKUs altogether and only sold the 360 with kinect.



If the eyetoy is like kinect then why isn't sony having full body motion control to the games that make sense to have it ??Why not in the volleyball of kinect sports, for example ? Why not have it in the fight ?? Why not play this fighting game the way it's supposed to be played without having the need to hold 2 big ass move controllers (that makes it awkward to say the least).   Why not make gladiator better by letting us use the shield just with our left hand without having the need for a second move controller or pushing the T button if we only have one move controller ?? Control the weapon with the move controller and control the shield by making  defensive move with your left hand (right hand for left-handed people) ?

In the end why isn't sony, effectively killing kinect's marketing by offering some non-controller experiences in addition to the games that need, by design, the move controller ?



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johnglen said:

If the eyetoy is like kinect then why isn't sony having full body motion control to the games that make sense to have it ??Why not in the volleyball of kinect sports, for example ? Why not have it in the fight ?? Why not play this fighting game the way it's supposed to be played without having the need to hold 2 big ass move controllers (that makes it awkward to say the least).   Why not make gladiator better by letting us use the shield just with our left hand without having the need for a second move controller or pushing the T button if we only have one move controller ?? Control the weapon with the move controller and control the shield by making  defensive move with your left hand (right hand for left-handed people) ?

In the end why isn't sony, effectively killing kinect's marketing by offering some non-controller experiences in addition to the games that need, by design, the move controller ?

I have been asking these same questions now for a year and no one who ever says "Kinect is just eyetoy" has ever given me a response.  If Eyetoy can do everything that Kinect can do, why HASN'T it?



mchaza said:

Kinect will last a year then fade away, Wii stayed alive due to a strong first party support from 20 years of games from Nintendo and an already existing fan base and also it was cheap. Kinect has an small fan base with its already existing fanbase not connected to the type of Kinect games. Move has its hybrid titles to keep the controller selling steadly. But kinect will rise then decline. I cant see people standing up and full body movement all the time for gaming, Wii users sit down majority of the time. 

 


I just want to comment on this part, Wii had most of it's sales at the $249 price point.  The Xbox with Kinect bundle is $299.   I don't think that is a huge difference right there and you can bet it will be down to $249 within the foreseeable future.



me thinks both Move and Kinect will NOT be very big

 

neither has a killer app like the Wii had with Wii Sports,

not just any sports game, but Wii Sports for crying out loud!!

the Kinect software lineup is very weak, weaker than the Move line up

 

Microsoft better hope Nintendo doesn't cut the price of the Wii a few weeks before Kinect comes out, because that will KILL Kinect sales.  Parents would see a $ 150 Wii versus a $ 300 Kinect bundle, and guess which one they will buy....

especially in this economy

 

I think the only reason Nintendo wouldn't cut the price of the Wii to ruin the Kinect launch, is if Nintendo is confident Kinect will fail even without Nintendo cutting the price of the Wii.

 

It would be especially damaging if MS advertises the price of the Kinect bundle for $ 300 in TV commercials, and then Nintendo immediately cuts the price of the Wii just before the Kinect launch.

Kinect would be dead....end of story.

 

 

 

 



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Why was wii sports a killer app and kinect sports isn't ??Games like volleyball and track'n'field look fantastic and play the way they are supposed to be played (using motion controls that is) . Why isn't kinectimals a killer app for children, it looks freakin awesome (the animals there are like the cutest thing ever in a videogame). Why isn't dance central a killer app, it only looks like the best dance game ever.

I think that in terms of pure motion-control games kinect's launch line up is full of killer apps. Hell the fighting game looks like it controls like a blast . For hardcore genres kinect has a serious problem and some extreme imagination is needed from game developers to make hardcore games, somewhat, work but for games that mimic real life (sports, dancing , fitness , fighting e.t.c )  and don't require a stick kinect has a huge advantage compared to the other motion control solutions. It just looks natural playing the volleyball game for example...



mortono said:

I think that prediction is extremely optimistic.

I'm expecting 10 million at the most, and even that seems too optimistic to me.


well it isn't as bad as other people are saying and that is 30 million which will be around every 2nd 360 by 2015 



Of Course That's Just My Opinion, I Could Be Wrong