He has a reason to be troubled by the 3DS, the recent spate of Super Gamecube games has been deeply troubling and if Nintendo continues on the 3DS with that, then its going to be in trouble again

Why do you think he was railing against Galaxy 2 and Other M for so long?

With Move and Kinect, Nintendo is looking to the 3DS for another hardware mechanic gimmick just like the Wii did for player controls.

I hate to use the word "gimmick" because it is understood as a one-trick pony, while glossing over the great software library of the Wii. However, I still cannot stop myself from thinking, would the Wii  have beeen as successful as it is with conventional controllers?

Personally, I don't know. The software was developed around the controller and it proved to be a goldmine. That being said, there were plenty of great software titles for the GameCube and it got absolutely curb stomped ala American History X style by the PS2. Factor in, the unknowns from what would have been with a traditional controller and all I can conclude is, I don't know it depends.

This being said, I honestly believe Nintendo will not see hardware numbers in the next generation equivalent to the Wii's numbers. Reasons? Move offers consumers who want Blu Ray for the movie theatre at home experience with a better alternative in more accurate user controls for their and their children's gaming needs. Furthermore, Microsoft with Kinect is taking gaming to a whole 'nother level in controller-less gaming. Microsoft doing Kinect first, attributes the creation of controller-less gaming to Microsoft and if Nintendo responds then they will be ripped for copying from Microsoft.

I just don't see how Nintendo replicates the success of the Wii and DS especially if the 3DS is going down the road of N64 as Malstrom is saying. All that is left for Nintendo is to focus on putting out the best quality software and retaining their blue ocean market. Nintendo is more than capable of both.

The thing is that Malstrom shows why that isn't the case, and why the GC games didn't sell despite a lot of gamers liking them.

The GC didn't have games that appealed to the mainstream. That's why they didn't sell. The Wii does. And unless the Move and Kinect have mainstream games (instead of Wii ripoffs), those will not be what you claim they are.

I believe this as well, but for the whole different reason, and there's nothing Nintendo can do, nor anyone else. I mean severe drop in demand.

2D Mario and new expanded audience game reveal at E3 2011 and release Q4 2011 - Q1 2012 would fix this problem nicely and support hardware sales momentum. They won't sell the system on 3D alone for prolonged time period the same way they didn't sell DS on touch screen alone, but Mario, Brain Training and Nintendogs did the trick leaving PSP behind. At least I hope people at Nintendo are not out of their minds not to release new 2D Mario game.

Malstrom's argument for the success of the Wii boils down to a great software library for core Nintendo players and an untapped market. Whereas Sony and Microsoft focus on hardware and the core, Nintendo focuses on games, which will sell to any gamer, lapsed or core. This is Malstrom's argument oversimplified without all the needless "professor with a cigar in his mouth" commentary.

The problem is, with Move and Kinect, Nintendo no longer has a free reign on the Blue Ocean market. Kinect moreso than Move because the initial launch strategy Sony did with the Move did not focus on marketing because they thought core Sony players would pick it up and it would gain momentum like a grassroots political effort. With the Kinect, you have a very serious threat and very, very big fish in the Blue Ocean. From what I have seen and read, Microsoft is serious on encroaching on and taking away from Nintendo's successbase of this generation.

If all was equal with each console of equivalent power without any controller, Blu Ray, or 3D gimmicks, the results have shown that Nintendo does not compete very well on an even playing level. All you have to do is look at the Playstation and Playstation 2 in comparison to the N64 and GameCube. Nintendo got beat down and violated like a cherry prisoner in the US prison system in those generations.

How much cartridge vs. CD and mini-disc vs. DVD had to do with Nintendo getting whallopped is unknown, but undoubtedly a factor. That being said, the Playstation vs. N64 and Playstation 2 vs. GameCube generations were more equal than this generation has been in similarities to gaming experiences.

By equal in this generation would mean each console has a Wii-like gimmick or better concerning controllers. As for Blu Ray vs. other disc formats, the PS3 is evidence of how little the latest fangled disc format can help sell a console by itself.

The way this generation finishes out will tell a far greater story for the relative places of each console in the next generation. Wii will have been effectively countered by Move and Kinect and the software 1st month sales will convey whether Nintendo will have success in the next generation on a similar level to the Wii.

Personally, I have a hunch that Nintendo will not be ontop next generation unless they pull some hardware gimmick out of left field that allows them to find another Blue Ocean. I just don't see it coming. What we will have is parity and as the Playstation and Playstation 2 gens have shown, when there is parity, Nintendo loses.

I focus on the hardware because hardware has a definite novelty factor to it. The novelty factor for the 360 and PS3 did not last very long because they were viewed as a very similar gaming experience to the original Playstation with the controllers and focus on graphics. Contrary, the novelty factor for the Wii has lasted a long time because Nintendo went down to it's gut and created an out of this world, innovative console with the Wii. Henceforth, when the choice for your lapsed gamer or nongamer is between the two HD twins with a traditional gaming experience vs. the Wii with new innovative controls and games aimed at the lapsed, nongamer and family friendly populations, most chose the Wii and have stuck with it.

I agree, a new Mario game has almost always been a panacea for lagging hardware sales. Well...with the exception of Super Mario Sunshine.

Then again, I have never like the concept of a silver bullet and putting all your eggs in one basket. If the mindset at Nintendo is to release a Mario game every other year, then it is the symptom of far deeper structural problems than we know about.

Mario should not be seen as a savior, Mario should be seen along with Zelda and others as a formidable lineup who will clear the floor everytime they enter the battlefield. I would include Metroid in the same lines, but I cannot as Other M is looking to trend lower than the worst selling Metroid game of all time, Super Metroid (1.42 million).

I am looking at you Donkey Kong...Yes you, do you still have the banana power to run with Mario? I hope so, but we will see these holidays.

"The problem is, with Move and Kinect, Nintendo no longer has a free reign on the Blue Ocean market."

Just because there is competition doesn't mean the blue ocean suddenly becomes red. They have to actually get in on the market, and the games have not proven to do that.

I don't really see his problem with the 3DS. It'll start out at a higher price and it'll grab the people who absolutely must have the latest 3D gaming system whilst the wider market will stay/buy out of the cheaper DS range. Then after about a year or so it'll come down in price, maybe even 6 months if rumours of a PSP2 launch are true and then it'll start to move into the range of a true DS replacement. If it can do everything the DS can do, why not focus on how it does more than the DS especially in that critical first 6 months or so?

I honestly think Malstrom just likes to go against the grain with the "conventional wisdom," sometimes just for the sake of going against it. Often he is correct because the conventional wisdom is frequently wrong - Everyone thought Nintendo was going to go third party, and we all know how that turned out - But sometimes he is wrong (or over exagurates). Now that the conventional wisdom seems to be that Nintendo will crush the competition with the 3DS, he is backing off the bandwagon and taking a closer look at it, being far more critical of it. While I agree with Malstrom's posts like 90% of the time, I am not with him in these sudden doomsday theories of the 3DS.

I guess he is saying that Nintendo is kind of going back to being like Sony and MS, too "core based" and reliant on hardware and technolgy, which I can kind of see. (This shows in the Wii lineup of 2010 with games like Other M and Galaxy 2, which have not picked up Wii sales). But when he says that 3DS sales will wane, that puzzles me. If you look at the lineup, the sheer strength of the library is absolutely massive compared to most Nintendo platforms; both first and third party. Malstrom even said once himself; the console with the most/best games generall sells the most hardware, and this is what the 3DS appears to be doing. I see is sort of like another PS2, rather than an N64, in that it is coming off a major success, with even stronger third party support, and many many quality games from all genres.I just can't see a handheld with a library like that and such strong 3rd party support to perform poorly.

I'm not sure Nintendo necessarilly needs to implement the Wii strategy as strongly in the handheld sector, since the competition isn't nearly as strong as it is in home consoles. However, I'm 100% with him that Nintendo NEEDS a brand new 2D Mario for the system. I can't imagine them NOT releasing it, if they like making money at all..

Besides this, I believe he is jumping the gun. The original DS didn't have a 2D Mario until a couple years into its life. I believe a similar situation will happen with the 3DS. Also, Nintendo will always be looking to reach new markets, I can't see them stopping this strategy with 3DS. They are simply starting it out with more established franchises in order to get a quick and stable install base from the getgo.