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Forums - Sales Discussion - Bungie calling out numbers for Halo Reach, saying they are WAY off.

Torillian said:
Viper1 said:

ATTENTION EVERYONE.

You cannot use the online activity as a measure of sales.   The capacity of online users as a percentage of console owners today and at Halo 3's launch are not equal.  It has grown greatly.

There is also the propensity of X360 owners to dive into multiplayer first now more so than at Halo 3's launch.

 

The factors between the 2 titles are not comporable and cannot be used a means to calculate user sales.

Out of curiosity do we have any data on the percentage of online users when Halo 3 launched and a comparison to now? 

I agree with your general sentiment that the two numbers are not comparible, I'm just curious if you know of any of those numbers.

Wish I did.  I've seen them before but I wasn't vested enough in remembering them at the time.



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BenVTrigger said:

like I said you guys do realize this includes single player campaign play correct?

This isn't just people playing online competitive multiplayer.



yea i really have zero idea how bungie gets their figures. i just threw out a guess as to why the figures were much higher. Thanks for the info though.



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I believe Major Nelson's stats are tracked by UU, and of course Reach hasn't sold as much as MW2 yet therefore less UU. But I've played both this week and have seen 700-800K online in Reach while I haven't seen MW2 above 200K.



There are 40m X360s worldwide, give or take. You're not opening to much more than 4m on a base that size - no matter how good a game is, only a certain percentage of the audience needs it immediately, its a pretty hard limit. DQIX opened to 2.3m, on a 30m DS base in Japan, Pokemon Black / White opened to 2.6m on 31m base in Japan. Modern Warfare 2 opened to 8m on a 60m combined PS3 / X360 base, and 4.9m on the 33m X360 base...but that was partly driven by holiday madness. This is September. Halo 2 and Halo 3 both opened in the 3m range.



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When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

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BenVTrigger said:
Jadedx said:

Give us numbers of users Bungie or STFU.


Listen I'm a HUGE fan of Vgchartz and never question numbers but you honestly trust the estimate here over Bungie's statistical internal data?

No Way.  And I'm sure Bungie is going to end up posting some exact number if Major Nelson and NPD don't correct.

So do you think my prediction of 4.5 million week one sales is accurate? If VGChartz is correct about sales, Reach only just sold more units then pre-orders (2.6 million pre-orders, 4 million sales). If Reach followed the trends Halo 3 and ODST did, it should have done A LOT better.

Do you think VGChartz will "adjust" their data when moe information comes in?



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JamaicameCRAZY said:
BenVTrigger said:

like I said you guys do realize this includes single player campaign play correct?

This isn't just people playing online competitive multiplayer.



yea i really have zero idea how bungie gets their figures. i just threw out a guess as to why the figures were much higher. Thanks for the info though.

Internal tracking. They just record how many people play on X-Box servers. MS can track anything people do on their 360's, so long as you are connected online.



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Viper1 said:
Torillian said:
Viper1 said:

ATTENTION EVERYONE.

You cannot use the online activity as a measure of sales.   The capacity of online users as a percentage of console owners today and at Halo 3's launch are not equal.  It has grown greatly.

There is also the propensity of X360 owners to dive into multiplayer first now more so than at Halo 3's launch.

 

The factors between the 2 titles are not comporable and cannot be used a means to calculate user sales.

Out of curiosity do we have any data on the percentage of online users when Halo 3 launched and a comparison to now? 

I agree with your general sentiment that the two numbers are not comparible, I'm just curious if you know of any of those numbers.

Wish I did.  I've seen them before but I wasn't vested enough in remembering them at the time.

A week after Halo 3 came out, I remember seeing 1.3 million users in online matchmaking. I think it was the second saturday after release. Before that I think 800-900k was the best it got to, and most commonly it was at 600k. With Reach I've seen 800-900k max, and averages around 650k, so same as Halo 3 at the time.



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Michael-5 said:
BenVTrigger said:
Jadedx said:

Give us numbers of users Bungie or STFU.


Listen I'm a HUGE fan of Vgchartz and never question numbers but you honestly trust the estimate here over Bungie's statistical internal data?

No Way.  And I'm sure Bungie is going to end up posting some exact number if Major Nelson and NPD don't correct.

So do you think my prediction of 5.5 million week one sales is accurate? If VGChartz is correct about sales, Reach only just sold more units then pre-orders (2.6 million pre-orders, 4 million sales). If Reach followed the trends Halo 3 and ODST did, it should have done A LOT better.

Do you think VGChartz will "adjust" their data when moe information comes in?

What data, from where? If you believe that Halo Reach sold more than MW2, you don't think Bungie or MS would be talking about it. Jeez.



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Michael-5 said:
JamaicameCRAZY said:
BenVTrigger said:

like I said you guys do realize this includes single player campaign play correct?

This isn't just people playing online competitive multiplayer.



yea i really have zero idea how bungie gets their figures. i just threw out a guess as to why the figures were much higher. Thanks for the info though.

Internal tracking. They just record how many people play on X-Box servers. MS can track anything people do on their 360's, so long as you are connected online.

ok thanks again



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       Coffee is for closers!

psrock said:
Michael-5 said:
BenVTrigger said:
Jadedx said:

Give us numbers of users Bungie or STFU.


Listen I'm a HUGE fan of Vgchartz and never question numbers but you honestly trust the estimate here over Bungie's statistical internal data?

No Way.  And I'm sure Bungie is going to end up posting some exact number if Major Nelson and NPD don't correct.

So do you think my prediction of 4.5 million week one sales is accurate? If VGChartz is correct about sales, Reach only just sold more units then pre-orders (2.6 million pre-orders, 4 million sales). If Reach followed the trends Halo 3 and ODST did, it should have done A LOT better.

Do you think VGChartz will "adjust" their data when moe information comes in?

What data, from where? If you believe that Halo Reach sold more than MW2, you don't think Bungie or MS would be talking about it. Jeez.

Typo, I edited it, but you must have quoted me first. I meant 4.5 million so like 20% ish better then Halo 3.



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