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Forums - Sales Discussion - Americas Pre-order Chart 21st August

iWarMachine on 25 August 2010
arcane_chaos said:

I know GT is a huge series,(Sony's greatest flagship series) that's why I don't get all these concerns and doubts about how GT5 will sell, based on previous  sales records I think it will be just as big or possibly bigger than it's previous titles. 


And it seems that people forget about GT5p...it sold 3.5M...i'm agree with HexenLord, once the advertising rolls out, we will see 100k Pre-orders every week.



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postofficebuddy on 25 August 2010
HexenLord said:
arcane_chaos said:

I am still puzzled by all this concern/doubt about GT5, I'm no fan(and maybe that's why) but I'll will just sit back and watch expectations be blown just like Uncharted 2, and Heavy Rain

I don't think you understand the force of the GT racing series. Its the Halo of PS games. Its the Call of Duty of drivers. 

 

I'm honestly not concerned with sales, despite the low pre-order numbers for a vast number of reasons.

 

Too many people are in doubt of a solid release date. Even though we are drawing very near to the Nov. 2 release date and they still haven't pushed it back further, too many people are still in doubt that this is actually it. Lots of people want it, but too many people are too used to waiting for it. This isn't helping pre-orders. Most people don't like ordering a game a year before it comes out. Once major advertising kicks in, the pre-orders will sky-rocket. It will do at least 500k U.S. pre-orders. Doesn't seem like much? GT games have a notorious history is pushing out 100k weeks for a few months on end. This console generation has certainly given rise to a new breed of 'core' gamers, where attachment rates are at a MUCH higher % than before for most games. 

 

Most people honestly doubt its release. Once they realize its out and in stores, the fury shall be unleased. Most people's "3 million WW sales" will be U.S. alone by the end of 2011, with ~1.5m in Japan and upwards of 5.5-6M in Others by the same date. It may take it until sometime 2012 to break the 10M mark, but it will happen.

 

Another reason it doesn't have tons of pre-orders is because of the current 'situation'. A lot of people who want GT5 don't own a PS3 yet. HW sales will be up for the entire month after the release. 

 

I know people like to babble on about how one game can't push HW like that and it won't sell that much because the PS3 doesn't have a huge user-base ATM..... etc. Look at it this way. Its one of the largest selling franchises on Playstation. To put it in retrospect for some people:

Grand Theft Auto Series (for Ps1/2/3)

GTA1 (PS): 2.32M

GTA2 (PS2): 3.42M

GTA3 (PS2): 11.6M

GTA: Vice CIty (PS2): 14.2M

GTA: San Andreas (PS2): 18.42M

GTA4 (PS3): 6.7M

Total for GTA Games on main PS console (not including addons): 56.65M

Average for GTA Games (56.65 million / 6 games): 9.44M

______________________________________________________________________________________________

 

Gran Turismo Series (PS1/2 Only)

GT1 (PS1): 10.85M

GT2 (PS1): 9.37M

GT3 (PS2): 14.89M

GT4 (PS2): 10.55M

Total for GT Games on main PS console: 45.66M (Actually 50.85M including 4/5 Prologue... with 5 Prologue being undertracked by ~1M)

Average for GT Games: 11.41M

___________________________________________________________________________________

As you can see, even with the GTA games being the top sellers on the PS2 several times over, the GT racing series has remained strong throughout its history with the PS. IT HAS THE POTENTIAL. If you look at GT4s sales, it sold 770k week one in the U.S., which is about where GT5 will probably end up opening... but GT4 still went on to sell 10 million.


This, this, this, this, this a thousand times over! We keep going back to that comparison of GT5 vs MW2 (PS3) preorders but what seems to be getting overlooked is the fact that if GT5 actually did match MW2 preorders it would completely and utterly annihilate GT4 sales. 770k first week vs. over 1.5 million first week. On top of that GT4 wasn't bundled in America and released in February, GT5 will be bundled and is releasing right before the holidays. As you point out even if GT5 falls a fair bit short of MW2 preorders around 500k it would still probably outsell GT4 in Americas. To give it a bit more perspective, GT5 has a pretty fair shot at outselling or selling close to Uncharted 2's first week worldwide just in Americas. Go check that game's sales.



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Barozi on 25 August 2010
TauKappaNASA said:

Is AC brotherhood to soon after AC II? I dont recall how ACII's preorders were going but I have a feeling they were much higher then brotherhood


AC2 had 100k preorders and ACBH has 135k with 13 weeks to go. Up on both platforms.



yo_john117 on 25 August 2010
Barozi said:
TauKappaNASA said:

Is AC brotherhood to soon after AC II? I dont recall how ACII's preorders were going but I have a feeling they were much higher then brotherhood


AC2 had 100k preorders and ACBH has 135k with 13 weeks to go. Up on both platforms.

I would have thought with Assassins Creed: Brotherhood releasing only a year later then AC2 that sales would be much lower......maybe the fact that the genre its in hardly has any games like it so people want more...



saicho on 26 August 2010
HexenLord said:
arcane_chaos said:

I am still puzzled by all this concern/doubt about GT5, I'm no fan(and maybe that's why) but I'll will just sit back and watch expectations be blown just like Uncharted 2, and Heavy Rain

I know people like to babble on about how one game can't push HW like that and it won't sell that much because the PS3 doesn't have a huge user-base ATM..... etc. Look at it this way. Its one of the largest selling franchises on Playstation. To put it in retrospect for some people:

Grand Theft Auto Series (for Ps1/2/3)

GTA1 (PS): 2.32M

GTA2 (PS2): 3.42M

GTA3 (PS2): 11.6M

GTA: Vice CIty (PS2): 14.2M

GTA: San Andreas (PS2): 18.42M

GTA4 (PS3): 6.7M

Total for GTA Games on main PS console (not including addons): 56.65M

Average for GTA Games (56.65 million / 6 games): 9.44M

______________________________________________________________________________________________

 

Gran Turismo Series (PS1/2 Only)

GT1 (PS1): 10.85M

GT2 (PS1): 9.37M

GT3 (PS2): 14.89M

GT4 (PS2): 10.55M

Total for GT Games on main PS console: 45.66M (Actually 50.85M including 4/5 Prologue... with 5 Prologue being undertracked by ~1M)

Average for GT Games: 11.41M

___________________________________________________________________________________

As you can see, even with the GTA games being the top sellers on the PS2 several times over, the GT racing series has remained strong throughout its history with the PS. IT HAS THE POTENTIAL. If you look at GT4s sales, it sold 770k week one in the U.S., which is about where GT5 will probably end up opening... but GT4 still went on to sell 10 million.

On the other hand, when you compare GT to GTA like that, it also shows that it's possible for the sale to drop 65% when the franchise moving from PS2 to PS3 since GTA games went from 18.42 to 6.7.

Or once can argue that GTA games never got super popular until it went 3D in GTA3. Since then, the series averaged 14.74 M per game and it's a more popular franchise on PS2. Yet GTA 4 sold 6.7 M on PS3.



MikeB predicts that the PS3 will sell about 140 million units by the end of 2016 and triple the amount of 360s in the long run.

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HexenLord on 26 August 2010
saicho said:

On the other hand, when you compare GT to GTA like that, it also shows that it's possible for the sale to drop 65% when the franchise moving from PS2 to PS3 since GTA games went from 18.42 to 6.7.

Or once can argue that GTA games never got super popular until it went 3D in GTA3. Since then, the series averaged 14.74 M per game and it's a more popular franchise on PS2. Yet GTA 4 sold 6.7 M on PS3.


A possibility, but its not very probable. GTA wasn't a game that people went out and bought a PS just to play. Especially when the game went Multi-plat, there were more options for them. Some already had a 360 thanks to the earlier release, and didn't have to bother with purchasing a PS3. Besides, a lot of the old GTA game sales were to minors, something that has been restricted quite a bit in the last 3-4 years.

 

GT is still exclusive and a flagship title. Its one of the games that people will own a playstation just to play, even if its their only game. GTA didn't have that advantage, even after going multiplat.

 

Even if it doesn't break the lowest of GT sales (9.37 million), it won't be very far behind. With all of the innovative features GT is going to include over the previous games in the series (and other games currently on the PS3), its userbase should actually expand quite nicely. Sales may be low at first due to a much smaller userbase for the PS3 over the previous consoles at the time of other games' releases, but the PS3 should sell upward of ~50 million more consoles in its lifetime, with roughly 10% of those users willing to purchase GT5



Killiana1a on 26 August 2010

Does Gran Turismo 5 need to be bundled with a PS3 to sell 10 million?

People compare the GT series with Grand Theft Auto and Modern Warfare 2. I can't recall any of the PS2 Grand Theft Auto games in a bundle; same for GTA 4. Modern Warfare 2 was bundled for a fraction of the time Gran Turismo games have been bundled.

If I remember correctly, Gran Turismo 3 and 4 were bundled for well over a year and a half each, while Modern Warfare 2 bundles nowadays, not even a year after it's release, are nonexistent in GameStops and upwards to $450 on Amazon.



kain_kusanagi on 26 August 2010
HexenLord said:
saicho said:

On the other hand, when you compare GT to GTA like that, it also shows that it's possible for the sale to drop 65% when the franchise moving from PS2 to PS3 since GTA games went from 18.42 to 6.7.

Or once can argue that GTA games never got super popular until it went 3D in GTA3. Since then, the series averaged 14.74 M per game and it's a more popular franchise on PS2. Yet GTA 4 sold 6.7 M on PS3.


A possibility, but its not very probable. GTA wasn't a game that people went out and bought a PS just to play. Especially when the game went Multi-plat, there were more options for them. Some already had a 360 thanks to the earlier release, and didn't have to bother with purchasing a PS3. Besides, a lot of the old GTA game sales were to minors, something that has been restricted quite a bit in the last 3-4 years.

 

GT is still exclusive and a flagship title. Its one of the games that people will own a playstation just to play, even if its their only game. GTA didn't have that advantage, even after going multiplat.

 

Even if it doesn't break the lowest of GT sales (9.37 million), it won't be very far behind. With all of the innovative features GT is going to include over the previous games in the series (and other games currently on the PS3), its userbase should actually expand quite nicely. Sales may be low at first due to a much smaller userbase for the PS3 over the previous consoles at the time of other games' releases, but the PS3 should sell upward of ~50 million more consoles in its lifetime, with roughly 10% of those users willing to purchase GT5

The PS3 is NOT the PS2. This generation's PS2 is the Wii and Sony and Microsoft are tied. 50 million more? This generation only has another two, maybe three, years left. Sony would have to sell twice as much in half the time plus another almost 20 million more to get 50 million additional machines in homes by the end of this generation. It's just not going to happen unless SOny decided to sell the thing for $49.99.

As for GT5, it's going to sell fine, but you seem to be under the impression that racing sim games are as populare as they were ten years ago. I don't know, they might be, but it seems like FPS has taken the crown as the most popular genre. GT used to be the only high quality racing sim available. Not so any more. Forza 3, Dirt 2, NFS Shift, etc have splintered the market. Sure there are plenty of die hard GT fans who bought their PS3s in anticipation of GT5, but all those casual racing fans who inflated GT3's numbers have probably already purchased a high quality racing sim that abated their need for speed last year and continues to abate it today. Some might still pick up a copy of GT5, but you can't expect GT5 to enter the same market GT3 did?

Polyphony has made the same mistake that Sony made with the PS3. They went too big, took too long, and spent too much money. Their competitores did it faster, cheaper, and have already made their profit. By the time GT5 hits the market it will be entering a world full of racing games of all kinds of genres that consumers will already have in their homes putting smiles on their faces. People tend not to pay for the same thing twice even for a minor upgrade. Forza 3 and NFS Shift give quality racing sim fans what they crave just as well as GT5 will, but they are already doing it while GT5 is still sitting on the starting line. Sure once it hits the gas it will be impressive, but you can't win a race if you don't turn the key.



DirtyP2002 on 26 August 2010
rossoner said:
Reach said:
postofficebuddy said:

Why does it seem like people completely disregard Asia and Japan in these arguments? Kinect will be lucky to cross 500k in Japan. Move will likely sell 2-3 million lifetime there, probably more if there's a killer app connected to it like Ninokuni and there's a large number of multi-controller owners. And if it get's a large enough base of RTS games it could corner the console market in Korea and Hong Kong. And I've mentioned this several times already but are people even aware that it's basically being bundled for free in mainland Europe where Move hype is much higher than Kinect hype.

haha u are so wrong Move will be killed by Kinect and Wii everywhere except maybe Japan. but even in Japan... Japanese dont play socom and Killzone mate.


Based on what? In EU move is among top preorders( at every retailer) while kinect is nowhere to be found. Does that mean kinect ll fail in EU?


Sir? Just check some websites and look what they are pushing.

There are quite a few retailers not even offering Kinect for preorder in Europe yet.

 



Imagine not having GamePass on your console...

HexenLord on 26 August 2010
kain_kusanagi said:
HexenLord said:


A possibility, but its not very probable. GTA wasn't a game that people went out and bought a PS just to play. Especially when the game went Multi-plat, there were more options for them. Some already had a 360 thanks to the earlier release, and didn't have to bother with purchasing a PS3. Besides, a lot of the old GTA game sales were to minors, something that has been restricted quite a bit in the last 3-4 years.

 

GT is still exclusive and a flagship title. Its one of the games that people will own a playstation just to play, even if its their only game. GTA didn't have that advantage, even after going multiplat.

 

Even if it doesn't break the lowest of GT sales (9.37 million), it won't be very far behind. With all of the innovative features GT is going to include over the previous games in the series (and other games currently on the PS3), its userbase should actually expand quite nicely. Sales may be low at first due to a much smaller userbase for the PS3 over the previous consoles at the time of other games' releases, but the PS3 should sell upward of ~50 million more consoles in its lifetime, with roughly 10% of those users willing to purchase GT5

The PS3 is NOT the PS2. This generation's PS2 is the Wii and Sony and Microsoft are tied. 50 million more? This generation only has another two, maybe three, years left. Sony would have to sell twice as much in half the time plus another almost 20 million more to get 50 million additional machines in homes by the end of this generation. It's just not going to happen unless SOny decided to sell the thing for $49.99.

As for GT5, it's going to sell fine, but you seem to be under the impression that racing sim games are as populare as they were ten years ago. I don't know, they might be, but it seems like FPS has taken the crown as the most popular genre. GT used to be the only high quality racing sim available. Not so any more. Forza 3, Dirt 2, NFS Shift, etc have splintered the market. Sure there are plenty of die hard GT fans who bought their PS3s in anticipation of GT5, but all those casual racing fans who inflated GT3's numbers have probably already purchased a high quality racing sim that abated their need for speed last year and continues to abate it today. Some might still pick up a copy of GT5, but you can't expect GT5 to enter the same market GT3 did?

Polyphony has made the same mistake that Sony made with the PS3. They went too big, took too long, and spent too much money. Their competitores did it faster, cheaper, and have already made their profit. By the time GT5 hits the market it will be entering a world full of racing games of all kinds of genres that consumers will already have in their homes putting smiles on their faces. People tend not to pay for the same thing twice even for a minor upgrade. Forza 3 and NFS Shift give quality racing sim fans what they crave just as well as GT5 will, but they are already doing it while GT5 is still sitting on the starting line. Sure once it hits the gas it will be impressive, but you can't win a race if you don't turn the key.

 

And whats your point? You're saying that if the generation only has another 3 years, that NO ps3 consoles will be sold after the next gen of consoles is released? Sorry, but research tells otherwise. For example, do you know that the PS2 has outsold the Xbox 360 since the 360 was released? But... but.... but.... that can't be, the last generation was over 4 years ago! The PS3 will be on store shelves for at least another ~5 years before it finally gets pulled of. I'd say an average of 10 million per year won't be too hard to do, considering the PS3 is just now reaching its peak. 

 

Btw, I'm not under the impression that racing games were as popular before. I know they aren't. Mainly because of the poor quality of games that have surfaced in the last ~3-4 years. Need for Speed and Midnight Club series have thrown out half a dozen shoddy titles in that amount of time that put a sour taste in everyones mouth. GT5 won't have cataclysmic early sales because of this. Reviews and innovations are whats going to help it stay on its feet and keeps its 'legs' moving for the next few years. 

 

People tend not to pay for the same thing twice even for a minor upgrade? I take it you've never went to school and taken courses on market research or analytical studies? People spend tens of thousands of dollars to buy new cars when their 'old' one isn't even old yet. People sell their house and buy different ones even though they already own one. People buy new computers when they 'feel' like their old one is slightly outdated. The average cell phone user upgrades his/her phone once a year even though they one they have works just fine. Saying people won't buy GT5 because there are already games out there like Forza 3 and NFS: Shift isn't by any means different from these situations. There are 30 million PS3 owners that don't own an Xbox or Forza. Over 80% of the racing sim fans didn't buy NFS: Shift because they either didn't have interest in it or know the poor quality of NFS games.

 

So by your logic of people not buying the same thing twice even if its an upgrade... then Halo: Reach CERTAINLY doesn't have 1 million pre-orders right now... because Halo 3 has been on the market for years now. Wait, what? Halo DOES have over a million pre-orders? IMPOSSIBLE.