I'd say 2012. By the way things are going, and with 2011 being right around the corner, I don't think there's going to be any *big* things coming soon, other than games.

By 2012, they'd have already probably thought of a way to make it *more* slim, or some sort of technique that'll decrease it's cost.

2011 most likely with around 15 million.

I don't expect a massive decline after 2011. It will sell a lot after reaching $199. I think it will sell an additional 30 million in 2012-2014.

in 2016 with the realease of GT6...prologue

Other consoles sold most of their units below $200 because they didn't cost $600 since day one, They got that price ($200) in less than 2-3 years when many of the best games were coming or already came. When PS3  be at $200 or $250 , it will  already have gotten its best games and will be in its 5th year. Is not the same situation than other gen. consoles.

PS3 has already peaked.

I say 2011 for now.  This is because every year I have had the PS3 (Since Launch) the next year looks even better.  Next year I see Killzone 3, SOCOM4, Resistance3, Infamous2, and yet another ratchet and clank.  I also predict a price cut to $249 and some major marketing.  This is the first year I can honestly say: "How could next year get better than this?"  However, I could very much so be wrong because you never know what SONY has up their sleeves.  For instance if in 2012 games like Uncharted3, another amazing IP from Guerilla Games, and another price drop to $199 happens: PS3 could easily continue to climb through 2012 and 2013 ESPECIALLY if MOVE takes off in 2011.

Sorry, if I missed a question, just repost it. I do want to answer all your questions.

a. If you actually compare numbers, the 360 Slim design boost got a larger increase in sales then a price drop. Both are meaningful, but the redesign does push more consoles. It's hard to analyse the PS3 redesign as it came with a price drop.

b. I feel that Sony removed backward compatibility with the PS3 to cut off PS2 software sales, and to cut costs. I have heard a few "expert" opinions by analysts to support my beleif, but I don't make it a habit to save every link I see in the hopes of winning a debate in a forum. The only purpose I intended by bringing up backward compatibility was that at the time PS2 was still selling well, and it was infringing on PS3's market share. PS3 is nowhere nearly as popular as the PS2 was.

c. I have a PS1, and Twisted Metal is a small franchise. I'm a huge fan of Twisted Metal on PS1 and Black for PS2, but the PS3 version looks bad. I'm hoping it's just pre-production and unpolished. The most popular Twisted Metal was #2, which sold 2.27 million, then the other console Twisted Metals sold 1.25-1.51 million. Not exactly a mega franchise, and it won't adjust sales significantly. GT is the last big Sony franchise awaiting a proper PS3 interation, I've looked into it and I just can't think of any other games that would likely push console that aren't already on the PS3.

d. GT5 will boasts sales, no doubt about that, especially in EMEAA and Japan. However one game will not make up for the difference the Slim PS3 model was released. You know before the PS3 Slim, 360 outsold the PS3 every consecutive week, except for big game launches. GT5 will be big, but nowehre nearly as big as a console redesign, and GT will probably boost PS3 sales throughout 2011, not so much at launch. (It's not a headstrong game, meaning it's sales are very spread over time, unlike CoD and Halo which get a bulk of their sales week 1).

e. How come? I understand I may be completly wrong about my predictions, and I respect your beleifs. I just base my opinions on common trends. I've been keeping up with VGChartz data since early 2008, I've looked at sales for a moderatly long enough time to understand how significantly a game boosts a consoles sales, and I understand to a degree how consoles sell. I know what facors boosts consoles sales, and I've seen first hand for the last 3 years, what big changes cause sales increments. In the last 2 years I noticed that the PS3/360 Slim effects have been huge, and push significantly more consoles then just a price cut, a mega franchise, and a good fall lineup. I'm by far not an expert, but I do my research, and try not to make claims without any supporting evidence.

No matter how this debate ends, I am not telling you that your wrong, I am just saying that I disagree, and I just like to explain why.

BTW, what do you mean by "just" opinionated?

I agree, if you look at trends for the PS2, GCN, XB, DS, PSP, and GBA, you will see that most consoles have sales peaks 2-3 years after launch, DS was the expection and too 4 years, but it's also the best selling system, and will have a much wider sales period (in terms of years).

If you compare PS3, Wii and 360 sales, you will see PS3 follows PSP very closely (PSP was released a year and a half before the PS3, and had peak sales in 2008). Wii follows PS2 sales curves slowly, and the 360, I really don't know. It's sales keep going up, and up, at a very linear rate, but it's likely to peak this year.

Just have to follow trends, and before you know it successor consoles will come.

Thats completly cool, I would still love hearing your reasons so that any future opinions I have will be more generalized, and realistic. You learn a lot more about the market by listening, then by talking.

Why are trends irrelevant this generation? If you think game sales this generation are any different then they were in the past you are severly mistaken. PS3 follows PSP sales almost perfectly, it's followed that trend accuratly, and I just see no reason why it would stop.