Thanks again. Its good to have a logical thread on Vgchartz.
I can't talk about Kinect here as this is really about Move. I only use Kinect as an example to help explain my points.
I just want to make it clear that what I have said is an attempt to understand how Sony is going about their Move strategy. Its not to say that they will be wildly successful with it, but I want to understand why they are doing what they are doing in a fashion which gives them the benefit of the doubt and explains their actions as if they are moving in a deliberate fashion. We should take Nintendo as an example, their first realisation was that they couldn't compete in the market in a traditional sense in the way that worked for them with the Snes, N64 and GC. So we shouldn't get caught up on the idea that Sony can't compete because the way they competed previously didn't work. We need to get past that step 1: "We cannot compete in the status quo" to at least Step 2: "How can we compete?" or Step 3: "We have a plan". People who were stuck on step 1 predict things like "they will leave the market", or "they will remain uncompetitive" when talking about Nintendo.
I do believe we will see plenty of advertising to build awareness. They have to make sure their target markets understand what Move is. They just cannot convey on advertisements things like how good Move is or how balanced the controller is or anything like that. Getting people to understand that when they pick up a Move controller that it is a Playstation 3 accessory and that it is designed to be like the Wiimote is a significant hurdle in itself. TV advertising is a good compliment to word of mouth. It definately helps when the people on the ground know when their friend hands them a Move controller what the thing is that they are holding is. Knowing what it is, is actually a good way to break through the trepidation less tech savvy people feel when they are given new technology to use.
Im not saying that they are on a strict time-table like say for instance the WW1 train movement logistical plan from Germany which forced them to declare war or they'd miss their own train. Im just saying that they have 12 months from September 2010 until September 2011 with which to develop a launching pad to get Q4 2011 right. They are likely going to stagger releases throughout the year in order to build momentum and to coincide with new games they are developing.
Yes that ship could have sailed already. In any case I believe that most gamers are skeptical of motion controls and im pretty sure that even some Wii owners are now skeptical as to the merits of motion controls. Theres skepticism that its even a worthwhile gaming interface to use and theres skepticism about if it offers anything of value over and above the Wii and games. Im just saying that they cannot bring Move to life in one quarter, no matter what they do. Its a journey. We've seen that sales in the console industry can increase from terrible beginnings and they can decrease rapidly from heady heights or in the case of the Xbox 360 they can seem to stay at around the same level year after year.
Did most people buy a PS3 at launch? At this point most people who owned the PS3 got it after it came down in price to $400 and got a few good games, both multiplat and exclusive. By next year most people who bought the PS3 will have gotten in from the same quarter they released Uncharted 2/Slim console. Just because they haven't got everything now at launch doesn't mean that it won't be the case in 6-12 months time. People aren't going to overlook the interface simply because it didn't appeal to them in the 3 days after it was released.
People gave the same "Sony doesn't seem to care, Microsoft doesn't seem to care" explanations in the past in relation to sagging console sales. However 2008 happened for the better in the Xbox 360s favour when people had written off the console in 2008 during the year and Sony was able to cut the price in 2007 and 2009 with the latter coming without significant losses if you go by comments they made about their gaming division being profitable for the previous 3 quarters.