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Forums - General Discussion - 3D Revenue Already Decreasing

STEKSTAV said:
vlad321 said:
STEKSTAV said:

http://hothardware.com/News/3D-Dominates-The-Cinema-Reels-In-33-Of-All-Box-Office-Revenue-Since-December/
http://blog.boxofficespy.com/2010/03/3d-movies-spike-box-office-revenue-3d.html
http://www.filmofilia.com/2010/03/24/3d-movie-fans-expand-box-office/
http://www.digitaltvnews.net/content/?p=12312

Its not all doooooomed because of a decline in 3d revenue tickets from a couple of movies. Got to remember that the 3D push we see today haven't been on the market that long. look at the DVD vs Blu Ray for example, imagine if Blu Ray had taken 33% of the market since the release of the medium. 3D revenue sits at 33% since the big push with Avatar last December! Thats a major increase from what we've seen of 3D before.

 

That entire graph seems to be just projections and based on almost no data to back it up.

"The DisplaySearch 3D Display Technology and Market Forecast Report is a comprehensive analysis of the stereoscopic 3D display technologies and their market forecasts through 2018. The report profiles about 150 3D display-related companies, with a breakdown by technology for 3D display and supply chain. 3D image creation and processing, human factors, content delivery and standardization are also discussed in the report. The Excel database provides a pivot table with market forecasts for units, revenues and ASPs, by nine size breakdowns, and ten applications: TV, mobile phone, digital camera/camcorder, digital photo frame, head-mounted display, notebook PC, monitor (<39.x”), 40 ” monitor, public display, cinema and other applications.

The report analyzes over a dozen 3D display technologies, focusing on six categories in the market forecast: passive glasses with one panel, passive glasses with two panels, active glasses, no glasses (auto-stereoscopic), head-mounted display and holographic/volume. The report also covers touch screens for 3D displays. For more information on this report, please contact Charles Camaroto at 1.888.436.7673 or 1.516.625.2452, or contact@displaysearch.com or contact your regional DisplaySearch office in China, Japan, Korea or Taiwan."

In the end it is a forecast, much like Sony forecasted 13m units sold last year to the laughter of internet know-it-alls, but a forecast at that. And in other words, estimates, guesses, predictions.. but with the method of how they collected data and analyzed trends, sure looks like a valid one to make such a forecast about the future. So i disagree that the graph is just some made up, cross our fingers and put our faith in higher powers-graph.

Yeah and Sony predicted that the PS3 will sell like hot bread when it would first launched and we saw how accurate those predictoins were.



Tag(thx fkusumot) - "Yet again I completely fail to see your point..."

HD vs Wii, PC vs HD: http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=93374

Why Regenerating Health is a crap game mechanic: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=3986420

gamrReview's broken review scores: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=4170835

 

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vlad321 said:
STEKSTAV said:
vlad321 said:
STEKSTAV said:

http://hothardware.com/News/3D-Dominates-The-Cinema-Reels-In-33-Of-All-Box-Office-Revenue-Since-December/
http://blog.boxofficespy.com/2010/03/3d-movies-spike-box-office-revenue-3d.html
http://www.filmofilia.com/2010/03/24/3d-movie-fans-expand-box-office/
http://www.digitaltvnews.net/content/?p=12312

Its not all doooooomed because of a decline in 3d revenue tickets from a couple of movies. Got to remember that the 3D push we see today haven't been on the market that long. look at the DVD vs Blu Ray for example, imagine if Blu Ray had taken 33% of the market since the release of the medium. 3D revenue sits at 33% since the big push with Avatar last December! Thats a major increase from what we've seen of 3D before.

 

That entire graph seems to be just projections and based on almost no data to back it up.

"The DisplaySearch 3D Display Technology and Market Forecast Report is a comprehensive analysis of the stereoscopic 3D display technologies and their market forecasts through 2018. The report profiles about 150 3D display-related companies, with a breakdown by technology for 3D display and supply chain. 3D image creation and processing, human factors, content delivery and standardization are also discussed in the report. The Excel database provides a pivot table with market forecasts for units, revenues and ASPs, by nine size breakdowns, and ten applications: TV, mobile phone, digital camera/camcorder, digital photo frame, head-mounted display, notebook PC, monitor (<39.x”), 40 ” monitor, public display, cinema and other applications.

The report analyzes over a dozen 3D display technologies, focusing on six categories in the market forecast: passive glasses with one panel, passive glasses with two panels, active glasses, no glasses (auto-stereoscopic), head-mounted display and holographic/volume. The report also covers touch screens for 3D displays. For more information on this report, please contact Charles Camaroto at 1.888.436.7673 or 1.516.625.2452, or contact@displaysearch.com or contact your regional DisplaySearch office in China, Japan, Korea or Taiwan."

In the end it is a forecast, much like Sony forecasted 13m units sold last year to the laughter of internet know-it-alls, but a forecast at that. And in other words, estimates, guesses, predictions.. but with the method of how they collected data and analyzed trends, sure looks like a valid one to make such a forecast about the future. So i disagree that the graph is just some made up, cross our fingers and put our faith in higher powers-graph.

Yeah and Sony predicted that the PS3 will sell like hot bread when it would first launched and we saw how accurate those predictoins were.

Exactly.. so we can agree that 3D is doomed and not doomed at the same time, depending on whatever happens in the future?



Hang on, let me see if i understand this argument

 

Because some shitty kids movie made on a $10 budget didn't have the same proportion of its sales in 3d as Avatar, which is truly the only good (from a technical point of view) 3d movie ever made, 3D is domed?

 

That makes my brain hurt.

 

Also, lol, people watched avatar in 2d? Hahaha, newbs



Previews before the movie Inceptions were mostly 3d movies, and not one of them looked appealing.

Last 3d movie i saw was Clash of the Titans and vowed never to spend extra bucks for 3d movies.

Avatar in 3d was great and The Christmas Carole in 3d was very good, but others were not worth the extra money.



If this is true, I am quite happy.

3D has had its core following on the PC since mid 90s which has been growing. That will never change...

People that know what Edimensional wired glasses are from back in the day and who know products like Zalman monitor, 3D vision, IZ3D, Tridef...etc...will always be doing 3D.

What Holywood and the electronic companies realized in 2009 is that they can finally make shitload of money off the average consumer by pushing 3D. So theaters are pumping out everything in 3D, TV manufacturers are making new TVs and rediculous standards which forcing you to buy a new 3D TV to enjoy 3D blurays and 3D PS3 gaming. There ae over 10 million existing TVs, monitors and projectors capable of displaying 3D content like 720p PS3 gaming. But who cares about them...

Hence I hope this new 3D push fails... ITs nothing but a money grab by companies who did not give 2 shits about stereoscopic 3D when the foundation for it was being built.

Don't get me wrong Its cool to have content and movies in 3D, but other than Avatar which was a true 3D movie experience, all this 2D to 3D bullshit is worthless. Not to mention that the World cup final in 3D was quite a bust.



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avatar was mindblowing in 3D but that was because it was designed as such from the beginning and it had a very talented and influential director with a clear vison of what he wanted and the power to get it. All other 3D movies since then, and I mean ALL of them, have not been able to reach this level of dedication to 3D and thus they suffered. I saw avatar in both 2D and 3D and there was no comparison. The 3D was the actual movie and the 2D was just a poor shadow of it. Until directors and studios are willing to do what it takes to actually make a good 3D movie, I will not watch them. If they do however, I will be first in line to watch it in 3D. However, no movies since avatar or on the horizen look able to fill that critera, I will be watching them in 2D.



Not trying to be a fanboy. Of course, it's hard when you own the best console eve... dang it

Maybe it was just me but I watched Avatar in 3D three times. Three times, let it be known. Not a single one of those times did I think "wow this is mindblowing" except for the very end when the major runs out of the burning ship in the mech. That was the extent of the "wow" factor in Avatar, toehr than that, I felt extremely ripped off.



Tag(thx fkusumot) - "Yet again I completely fail to see your point..."

HD vs Wii, PC vs HD: http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=93374

Why Regenerating Health is a crap game mechanic: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=3986420

gamrReview's broken review scores: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=4170835

 

vlad321 said:

Maybe it was just me but I watched Avatar in 3D three times. Three times, let it be known. Not a single one of those times did I think "wow this is mindblowing" except for the very end when the major runs out of the burning ship in the mech. That was the extent of the "wow" factor in Avatar, toehr than that, I felt extremely ripped off.


you're not the only one, I actually liked more the 2D version, it was so colorful it looked great. With the glasses it lost that and I had a bit of headache. Reading the subtitles in 3d (not all of us speak english perfectly) was a pain in the ass.



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Not surprised if its true. Avatar worked because the film was shot and designed for 3d. As opposed to most 3d films now which are simply converted. Its being flogged by the indsutry and people are going to get over it. Plus not all films in 3d really should be in my opinion.

Hollywood would have been better to do it every so often and make it an event. As it is I think the industry just saw it was another way to justify higher ticket prices and the effect of that ticket price incerase is being seen in some of the dissapointing numbers at the box office.

Plus the success of inception shows that it isn't neccesary all the time. Consumers didn't take to it in the 50's and 80's. I doubt third times the charm. The success so far seems solely attributed in many ways to the success of avatar, which would have make over a billion bucks probably done similar number to Titanic even if it wasn't in 3d.



That's like claiming racing sims is domed because Blur didn't sell as much as MKWii.