Nope. I have to disagree here.
The results on 22nd won't be that great. The Xbox 360 slim cost a lot of money to distribute. Sony had the same stuff with the PS3 slim. They said that the distribution cost a lot of money. And of course the fisal year MS is reporting ends 30th June. So no Xbox 360 Slim stuff from Europe. Of course the fail of the Kin will ruin the numbers as well.
There was only one first party game released for the Xbox 360 and that was Alan Wake with undeserved low sales. Software sales. Other than that we had Splinter Cell Conviction and RDR on the software side.
I don't even expect great shipments of new consoles. Of course hell will break lose, because people will fail to understand that there were a VERY limited amount of consoles shipped right before the Slim launch.
SO this Q4 will be quiet. Q1 2011 will be pretty big with hardware shipments (Slim release) and software wise (Halo Reach). Q2 2011 will be HUGE software and hardware wise (CoD Black Ops, Fable III, Kinect Sports, Dance Central) and hardware wise (Kinect, holiday boost).
OK so why does a 360 S cost more to distribute vs a 360 Elite? If the consoles shipped in June then they will be included in the results. Certainly the July 16th Europe sales were consoles shipped bu June 30th.
As for PS3 vs 360 profits. Please the 360 has been selling at a profit for 3 years now. Since the November 2005 release the 2 main SKUs (with and without HDD) have dropped a total of $100 each (not counting when SKUs are cleared with a price break). The PS3 has dropped $300 and that is why the 360 has sold for a profit for the past 3 years and the PS3 is just now selling for a small profit.
As for 360 S R&D. Those costs will not show up in the 4th qtr report this Thursday. The R&D costs have certainly been absorbed over the last couple of years. We have known for awhile that a combine CPU/GPU has been in process for a couple of years. Its not like in March the 360 team said hey lets put togther a smaller, quieter, cooler 360 and lets get it done for summer release.