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Forums - General Discussion - Why I am leaving the US...

Akvod said:

I don't see how the current financial crisis has anything to do with "stealing from the rich".

In fact, people have been likening to the sub-prime mortgage crisis as a scam made by the rich...

 

I'm not knowledgeable enough to comment on wealth distribution, income disparity, etc. I do know from basic macroeconomics though, that the austerity drive going on the world is simply counterintuitive. What is it going to do? Businesses invest in order to increase production capacity, and you increase production capacity when there is demand for your products that create the need for extra capacity. In short, you buy machines to make stuff, when you think more people want to buy stuff. I don't see how reducing our GDP is going to increase investment (which is going to further lower GDP, by a lot).

Do you understand that countries going for more austerity are doing it because they cannot afford to keep propping up the economy like you want them to?

The easiest thing to liken it to is a person with an unlimited balance credit card. You still have to pay the interest off, but you can spend as much as you want. The problem is with all of your suggestions is, that there is no knowing for certain when a country will gain its economic footing back for consumer confiedence. The government could be running deficits of 100, 150, 200% of GDP before it happens...And if that happens, so much of the tax monies would be going to pay off interest, there would be little else done with tax revenues.

Its not counterintuitive, because much of the government stimulus programs aren't going to help consumer confidence, or help the means of production out. A huge amount of the bailout and stimulus went to crooks and stupid people...It hasn't helped, because the money went nowhere that it should of been. So austerity is the only way out - balance the budgets, and when it they reduce their interest payments, either lower taxes to increase consumer confidences (more money for them to put into the market place, increasing consumption) or giving out more benefits.

I don't see what abandoning the unemployed is going to do. The laziness argument can't hold, because 6% of the 10% were employed recently, and it's hard to believe that they were the types that just leached off benefits. Maybe they honestly can't find jobs, due to macroeconomic circumstances, out of their hands?

Could it be that the 10% may have been in jobs that were unfit to even be there in the first place? Rampant overspending has caused the problem(s). Look at the savings rate in America over the past 70 years - people have been spending more than they earn, yielding an economy that was simply unsustainable. You keep purporting the CING graph like its the be-all-end-all.

Suppose it is. If consumers, via debt and overspending, buy more, it will create a glut of jobs in many industries. When such consumers have to finally deal with reality, it will cause what has happened - a recession. The housing bubble can be looked at that way - a glut of loans were given to people that couldn't afford them, via incentives offered by CRA 1999...We have skyrocketing prices for houses, only to be shattered by reality that the housing market was overvalued and lots of people really couldn't own houses.

People want to balance the budget, but don't want to raise taxes, want to keep their own benefits, don't want to reform medicare (which is a huge part of spending), etc. Fucking contradictory.

I agree. We should cut spending from virtually everything to balance the budget, then when its balanced (within 10% of GDP), look at tax cuts, and reforms.





Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

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LOL..good luck, I wonder if this is part of the Obama effect?



"...You can't kill ideas with a sword, and you can't sink belief structures with a broadside. You defeat them by making them change..."

- From By Schism Rent Asunder

Whoa, you really ARE the Real Mafoo.  I honestly thought you were faking the funk when you said you were going to leave the country, since everybody makes that claim on both sides of the political spectrum and nobody really does it.  Good luck in Mordor man.  The place is beautiful.



I never been to New Zealand or America but reading your description of society and what bothers you about it, people are exactly like that everywhere its a human thing. Majority just wants things without earning it, welfare state is expanding everywhere and thats the reality, and notions of redistribution of wealth are popular in every nation.



mrstickball said:
Akvod said:

I don't see how the current financial crisis has anything to do with "stealing from the rich".

In fact, people have been likening to the sub-prime mortgage crisis as a scam made by the rich...

 

I'm not knowledgeable enough to comment on wealth distribution, income disparity, etc. I do know from basic macroeconomics though, that the austerity drive going on the world is simply counterintuitive. What is it going to do? Businesses invest in order to increase production capacity, and you increase production capacity when there is demand for your products that create the need for extra capacity. In short, you buy machines to make stuff, when you think more people want to buy stuff. I don't see how reducing our GDP is going to increase investment (which is going to further lower GDP, by a lot).

Do you understand that countries going for more austerity are doing it because they cannot afford to keep propping up the economy like you want them to?

The easiest thing to liken it to is a person with an unlimited balance credit card. You still have to pay the interest off, but you can spend as much as you want. The problem is with all of your suggestions is, that there is no knowing for certain when a country will gain its economic footing back for consumer confiedence. The government could be running deficits of 100, 150, 200% of GDP before it happens...And if that happens, so much of the tax monies would be going to pay off interest, there would be little else done with tax revenues.

Countries like Greece, yes. But the problem is, not everyone is Greece. Not every country isn't a terminally unproductive country.

And the problem with credit card analogies, is that it doesn't take into account inflation, and allow the possibility that the credit card holder/government might actually start saving and paying off the debt once they get a hold of things.

This is NOT to say defeceit spending sucks. It sucks. Yes, our children pay for it. But our children will pay MORE if we don't do defeceit spending and keep our economy afloat, and recover it faster.

So it's not like Krugman, me, and other counter cyclicalists are getting a fucking boner to accumulate debt. The problem started because we fucking expanded the economy beyond its normal capacity, and it's compounded by the debt and spending we did in the over seas war.

But, what needs to be done, needs to be done. It hurts, but it'll hurt a lot less if we do this.

Its not counterintuitive, because much of the government stimulus programs aren't going to help consumer confidence, or help the means of production out. A huge amount of the bailout and stimulus went to crooks and stupid people...It hasn't helped, because the money went nowhere that it should of been. So austerity is the only way out - balance the budgets, and when it they reduce their interest payments, either lower taxes to increase consumer confidences (more money for them to put into the market place, increasing consumption) or giving out more benefits.

The stimulus itself doesn't improve consumer confidence. It's by getting back the GDP to its normal rate, unemployment back to its old rate, and keeping it there, and making people think it's staying there, that people will spend more. This isn't an overnight process. People will be reluctant and skeptical to spend their money. But they'll regain confidence this way a lot faster, than if we let everything fall to shit. And also, letting everything fall to shit, isn't just setting ourselves up for a long recovery, but probably a reduction in the long term output itself.

And saying that because the stimulus that was made (which didn't give it to the poor, the ones who spend money immedietly rather than saving it), was crappy, doesn't make a good argument against formulating a proper stimulus. That's not an argument.

I don't see how lowering our GDP (cutting government spending, and subsequently business investment) will restore confidence. And lowering taxes (reducing revenue) and spending money are the same thing. Let's say you reduce 100 USD in tax revenue via tax cuts. Let's say you give 100 USD via stimulus. Both are -100 USD in paying off debt.

And how long do you think it's going to take to "pay off interest"? My analogy is, you borrowed money, then you quit your job. How are you going to pay off the debt, when the GDP (the country's income) goes down?

I don't see what abandoning the unemployed is going to do. The laziness argument can't hold, because 6% of the 10% were employed recently, and it's hard to believe that they were the types that just leached off benefits. Maybe they honestly can't find jobs, due to macroeconomic circumstances, out of their hands?

Could it be that the 10% may have been in jobs that were unfit to even be there in the first place? Rampant overspending has caused the problem(s). Look at the savings rate in America over the past 70 years - people have been spending more than they earn, yielding an economy that was simply unsustainable. You keep purporting the CING graph like its the be-all-end-all.

Suppose it is. If consumers, via debt and overspending, buy more, it will create a glut of jobs in many industries. When such consumers have to finally deal with reality, it will cause what has happened - a recession. The housing bubble can be looked at that way - a glut of loans were given to people that couldn't afford them, via incentives offered by CRA 1999...We have skyrocketing prices for houses, only to be shattered by reality that the housing market was overvalued and lots of people really couldn't own houses.

I don't think consumer spending was the cause of this recession??? I think it was because of the reduction in wealth households experienced, as well as the inflationary gap we had and excessive inventory we had (and the subsequent reduction in investment).

People want to balance the budget, but don't want to raise taxes, want to keep their own benefits, don't want to reform medicare (which is a huge part of spending), etc. Fucking contradictory.

I agree. We should cut spending from virtually everything to balance the budget, then when its balanced (within 10% of GDP), look at tax cuts, and reforms.





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Akvod,

The US has a similar debt-to-GDP ratio as Japan had in the 1990s at the beginning of the lost decade, the economic downturn in Japan is heavily related to what has happened in the US, and even though the Japaneese government pushed their debt to GDP ratio to 200% with stimulus spending the recovery predicted by Keynesian economists never occurred. Today, many of the same people who were warning about the Greece crisis before it happened are warning that Japan is a likely candidate for the next major crisis; and I don’t think anyone can doubt the productivity of Japan. 

Being that Japan’s position in the 1990s is so similar to the US’s position today, what makes you think that the same actions that failed in Japan will work in the United States?



And to tag onto HS:

It doesn't matter if the nation is corrupt or not, if the debt-to-GDP ratio is so off-balance, that the nation can't dig itself out of the hole easily. In Japan's case, its very lucky because the interest rate of its bonds are very, very low (2-3%). If investors began to grow skeptical of Japan repaying its debts, things could get very ugly, very quickly.

Also, Akvod...I gotta ask this. How many stimulus projects are going on where you live? What are they doing to remedy the situation we are in?



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

M.U.G.E.N said:

Dunno if I agree with his numbers BUT I can see where he is coming from..over the past 10 years the gap between the compensation of an employee and the executives of the company has risen by a great margin, even when the recession was going on. Has it stopped now? nope it still as bad or worse...don't really care much for communism, socialism or even democracy, the spread of wealth can and should be better than this in the USA


The issue is are the rich getting rich at the expense of the poor? No. If you look at the times in the US where the growth of the rich getting richer was the fastest, the quality of life for the poor at that time was growing the fastest as well.

They poor's quality of life was improving because the rich were getting richer, not in spite of it. Yes, the rich were improving at a faster rate, but who cares? If they help everyone why they get rich, what's the problem?

This is the issue I take with the current US mindset (as apposed to 100 years ago). People today look at someone else and say "that's not fair" instead of just looking at yourself and saying "what can I do to make my life better".

When I was a kid, you heard of other people in the world being envious of the US because it was a place you could go and make your fortune. Today if you make a fortune, you're somehow evil, or something to be ashamed of. You become a target because you just don't diserve what you have.

It's a horrible mindset we as a country have become.



Lolcislaw said:

I never been to New Zealand or America but reading your description of society and what bothers you about it, people are exactly like that everywhere its a human thing. Majority just wants things without earning it, welfare state is expanding everywhere and thats the reality, and notions of redistribution of wealth are popular in every nation.


NZ has two things going for it.

One is it's 4 million people. A smaller social government is a lot better then a large social government.

And two, it's NZ, the most beautiful place in the world. I can put up with a lot more shit from government when I am living in paradise :)

And to all that have said good luck, thanks! It means a lot :)



HappySqurriel said:

Akvod,

The US has a similar debt-to-GDP ratio as Japan had in the 1990s at the beginning of the lost decade, the economic downturn in Japan is heavily related to what has happened in the US, and even though the Japaneese government pushed their debt to GDP ratio to 200% with stimulus spending the recovery predicted by Keynesian economists never occurred. Today, many of the same people who were warning about the Greece crisis before it happened are warning that Japan is a likely candidate for the next major crisis; and I don’t think anyone can doubt the productivity of Japan. 

Being that Japan’s position in the 1990s is so similar to the US’s position today, what makes you think that the same actions that failed in Japan will work in the United States?


Akvod, I was about to ask you the same thing.

How do you explain why Keynesianism didn't work in Japan?