Quantcast
Pachter: Industry in permanent decline

Forums - Gaming Discussion - Pachter: Industry in permanent decline

Alan Wake, Prince of Persia, Blur, Shrek, Lost Planet 2, Iron Man 2 and Skate 3 sold less than 200k units.  The previous ps3 and 360 prince of persias sold 900k total units worldwide.  This will probably equal that.  Lost Planet 2 has sold 750k between ps3 and 360.  360 should end well into the 1 million mark.  Iron Man sold 1.09 m on ps3 and ps2 combined.  (.6 just ps3)  Already .08 for a stupid game.  .08 for 360, sold .58 for original.  .72 and .98 million for skate 1 and 2 respectively (on 360)  .28 and .60 million (on ps3)  Skate 3 already .24 million on 360 and .17 million on ps3.  Both are already very close to or past 25% of the previous sales, that's very good.  As for Blur, it's a new franchise in a market with some very high quality racing games like this already, low sales expected.  As for Alan Wake, it at .52 million already after 6 weeks.  Completely new title with hardly any advertising, should reach 1 million, but expected.  Comon Pachter, point out the good games, Red Dead Redemption already over 4 million between 360 and ps3 (in 6 weeks!!!).  How about MGS for psp, almost 1 million after 9 weeks.  Yes, Nintendo is the main leader, but main leaders can fall (which they aren't).  Video game sales are fine.



Money can't buy happiness. Just video games, which make me happy.

Around the Network
RolStoppable said:
Squilliam said:

I have a simple explanation.

1. Recession: I.E. people who aren't keen gamers are going to put it lower on their list of priorities. So going outside in the middle of summer during a recession is going to be a little bit more appealing than it used to be. That oil spill doesn't help confidence much either!

2. Time of year. Since they often less keen gamers they are more likely to recieve a greater proportion of their software library as gifts. This time of year simply isn't gift giving season.

Let's say the average keen gamer spends the majority of his disposable income on video games. That would mean that his spending on video games would go down more dramatically during the recession than the spending of the not so keen gamer, because the keen gamer doesn't really have any other options when he wants to save up money.

So a keen gamer is more likely to cut his spending on video games and also more likely to cut that amount by more. What that means for the industry is that games that were worthy fillers before, now get a pass from the keen gamer and only the big titles keep selling at the same pace as before, because if you are short on money you only buy what you absolutely need to have.


Thats nowhere near what the overage keen gamer is or does. I was saying that the more enthusiastic gamer would cut spending to other areas before he cuts his spending on games. In times of crisis financially people will cut their pay TV subscription before they will cut their internet because internet is a higher priority. People who prioritise gaming over other forms of entertainment will cut spending on lower priority entertainment before finally cutting the budget for games. However someone who doesn't prioritise gaming as highly will cut spending on games sooner which explains why the Wii would be down more in the recession compared to the Xbox 360 and PS3 and why the Wii would benefit more than the DX9 duo if theres a major pick up in confidence.



Tease.

Lastgengamer said:

It could be about time for a new hardware cycle. That would help revive the industry right? 

If people are tapped out, and trying to save money and pay off their credit cards, how exactly is new hardware going to revive anything?  Do we need more motion control?  How about better graphics?

I will also add this bit to what I wrote.  Look at this following by Pachter and then ask what doesn't look right about it:

That’s not to say that Nintendo was the only offender. Pachter also laments the fact that a number of key titles – Alan Wake, Prince of Persia, Blur, Shrek, Lost Planet 2, Iron Man 2 and Skate 3 all sold fewer than 200,000 units.

 

Outside of MAYBE Alan Wake, which of those titles strike you as "key" titles?  I don't see anything there that should push over 200,000 units in a month.  One could argue IF Alan Wake is in a genre people are hot over, then yes.  But, I see Alan Wake as not being in a major genre at all.  It just isn't.  What I do see out of Pachter here is a money person's grasp of the videogame industry and someone who actually knows it.  It is a person who looks at the financial values of IPs and how they spin in the market.  It doesn't actually look at the quality of the titles themselves, or ask if they intrinsically will resonate.  It is by the numbers, without gut understanding.  And this botchery of understanding is why Pachter is as bad as he is at predicting anything.  See my signature below to see how badly Pachter has blown it in the past.

You see, if Pachter had a clue, then he would understand that RDR could do real good numbers, if it executed well and brought something new to the multiplayer arena as it had.  Western or no, it can happen.  The same with Assassin's Creed also and what it has done.



Its hard to buy all the great games that come out and actually have time to play them. Plus summer is the time many people slow down on gaming and enjoy the outdoors. This doom kind of talking is intresting, but it is obvious times are changing. People could play great games like Red Dead Redemption forever, with its great single player and great online experience. A lot of games just have great value and just eat up a lot of time.



chocoloco said:

Its hard to buy all the great games that come out and actually have time to play them. Plus summer is the time many people slow down on gaming and enjoy the outdoors. This doom kind of talking is intresting, but it is obvious times are changing. People could play great games like Red Dead Redemption forever, with its great single player and great online experience. A lot of games just have great value and just eat up a lot of time.

The thing about Red Dead to, is that it is the top game of its type, and that lends to it also getting a lot of interest to.  The Western now has its Halo, and it is RDR.



Around the Network

You know, its really sad how close minded some of you are being about what is being stated IN THIS ANALYSIS and just reacting emotionally to your opinion of the man.  Why?  Because of this:

"“Rather, we believe that the publishers and developers of games have created more robust multiplayer content in recent years that has resulted in core gamers playing the same games for much longer, on average, than they did in the past, leading to lower sales of new games.

 

“We expect the publishers to monetise the value created by online play, led by Activision. We continue to expect Activision to find a way to monetize the 1.75bn hours of Call of Duty Modern Warfare 2 online play on the Xbox 360 in the first five months following the game’s release."

Folks, that's the scariest bit of truth I've read from him maybe ever.  How many people do you know that are simply playing CoD or Halo multiplayer more than any release this year?  Why by single player Alan Wake when you can still play multiplayer games from last year or older that have thriving communities?  Bobby Kotick realizes this and wants to figure out a way to charge you to play CoD on a monthly basis if you're going to play online multiplayer.  AND HE'S GOING TO FIND A WAY TO DO IT AND EA/MADDEN WILL FOLLOW SUIT.  

And if you think that's going to fail, then you don't realize how many of us gamers are sheep.  

There are some problems that are fixable, but don't think for a minute that this analysis is off.  Its quite impressive, in an apocalyptic way ...

 



I think an industry collapse would be a good thing. Bring it back to basics. Or kill it outright. Either would be preferable to where its going now. 



ǝןdɯıs ʇı dǝǝʞ oʇ ǝʞıן ı ʍouʞ noʎ 

Ask me about being an elitist jerk

Time for hype

Patcher's a freakin moron, or he's trying to push an agenda (or both). He blames Nintendo primarily for the decline of the industry, yet Nintendo have been the ones EXPANDING the industry and reaching out to new gamers, something Sony and MS have failed to do. Without the Wii, the industry would be on the brink of destruction right now. You have one of the most successful consoles of all time, and STILL the industry is in decline. Imagine where the industry would be WITHOUT Nintendo!

Even now, 4 years later, it continues to boggle my mind how such a successful console has gotten such a collective criticism and doomsday claims by the delusional people within the games industry. You would think that the Wii has gotten 10 million sales rather than 72 million judging from all the negativity.



I call this 'decline' competition.



Metallicube said:

Patcher's a freakin moron, or he's trying to push an agenda (or both). He blames Nintendo primarily for the decline of the industry, yet Nintendo have been the ones EXPANDING the industry and reaching out to new gamers, something Sony and MS have failed to do. Without the Wii, the industry would be on the brink of destruction right now. You have one of the most successful consoles of all time, and STILL the industry is in decline. Imagine where the industry would be WITHOUT Nintendo!

Even now, 4 years later, it continues to boggle my mind how such a successful console has gotten such a collective criticism and doomsday claims by the delusional people within the games industry. You would think that the Wii has gotten 10 million sales rather than 72 million judging from all the negativity.


Nintendo is always doomed no matter what they do to the industry.



3DS Friend Code:   4596-9822-6909