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Pachter: Industry in permanent decline

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Consumer Confidence Tumbles

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704103904575336611280222670.html

The Third Depression

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/28/opinion/28krugman.html?_r=1&ref=paulkrugman



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Squilliam said:

I have a simple explanation.

1. Recession: I.E. people who aren't keen gamers are going to put it lower on their list of priorities. So going outside in the middle of summer during a recession is going to be a little bit more appealing than it used to be. That oil spill doesn't help confidence much either!

2. Time of year. Since they often less keen gamers they are more likely to recieve a greater proportion of their software library as gifts. This time of year simply isn't gift giving season.

Let's say the average keen gamer spends the majority of his disposable income on video games. That would mean that his spending on video games would go down more dramatically during the recession than the spending of the not so keen gamer, because the keen gamer doesn't really have any other options when he wants to save up money.

So a keen gamer is more likely to cut his spending on video games and also more likely to cut that amount by more. What that means for the industry is that games that were worthy fillers before, now get a pass from the keen gamer and only the big titles keep selling at the same pace as before, because if you are short on money you only buy what you absolutely need to have.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

RolStoppable said:
Squilliam said:

I have a simple explanation.

1. Recession: I.E. people who aren't keen gamers are going to put it lower on their list of priorities. So going outside in the middle of summer during a recession is going to be a little bit more appealing than it used to be. That oil spill doesn't help confidence much either!

2. Time of year. Since they often less keen gamers they are more likely to recieve a greater proportion of their software library as gifts. This time of year simply isn't gift giving season.

Let's say the average keen gamer spends the majority of his disposable income on video games. That would mean that his spending on video games would go down more dramatically during the recession than the spending of the not so keen gamer, because the keen gamer doesn't really have any other options when he wants to save up money.

So a keen gamer is more likely to cut his spending on video games and also more likely to cut that amount by more. What that means for the industry is that games that were worthy fillers before, now get a pass from the keen gamer and only the big titles keep selling at the same pace as before, because if you are short on money you only buy what you absolutely need to have.

Oh noes. That means all the awesome shovelwares that they try to sell you for $50 are going to be popping up on iPhone for $2. Gaming is domed!



3DS will save the game industry. lol!



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   

We think it is inevitable that there will be a shift in delivery of video games away from packaged products and toward digital downloads, but we don’t expect the shift to manifest itself in a material way in 2010.

This does not seem an intuitively valid conclusion.



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It's just the generational cycle, we're on the back half of the slope now.  I'd also say piracy is likely a big factor eating into Wii/DS sales in Q2.  I see nothing to at all indicate "permanent decline" though, seems like the usual chicken little Pachter reaction.  Evidently, he can't handle Rockstar succeeding. ;)



Khuutra said:
We think it is inevitable that there will be a shift in delivery of video games away from packaged products and toward digital downloads, but we don’t expect the shift to manifest itself in a material way in 2010.

This does not seem an intuitively valid conclusion.

What he's saying there is more of a long-term prediction, one that, despite my not liking, I agree with. Game sales will shift more toward an online distribution, but it won't be really noticable this year. And it makes sense, with publishers wanting ways to monetize more of the game's aspects, including things like resale, which can't be done in this method.

As for the rest of his post, scary as it may seem, I agree. (A broken clock is right twice a day.) I've been saying that as long as companies let budgets balloon out of control, it's not growing at the same rate to justify those budgets, and it would implode on itself. Graphics alone aren't enough to sell a game, and with so much of a budget going there, the rest of the game suffers. I do think gaming is in a decline, and it won't be long until the consumer market catches up with this decline.



-dunno001

-On a quest for the truly perfect game; I don't think it exists...

dunno001 said:

What he's saying there is more of a long-term prediction, one that, despite my not liking, I agree with. Game sales will shift more toward an online distribution, but it won't be really noticable this year. And it makes sense, with publishers wanting ways to monetize more of the game's aspects, including things like resale, which can't be done in this method.

As for the rest of his post, scary as it may seem, I agree. (A broken clock is right twice a day.) I've been saying that as long as companies let budgets balloon out of control, it's not growing at the same rate to justify those budgets, and it would implode on itself. Graphics alone aren't enough to sell a game, and with so much of a budget going there, the rest of the game suffers. I do think gaming is in a decline, and it won't be long until the consumer market catches up with this decline.

Oh, I understood what he meant. It still does not seem an intuitively valid conclusion.



I'm going to have to agree with the whole "Pachter's ideas aren't even worh getting in an argument over" perspective.  Mr. Pachter, whatever he may be, is not an analyst worth listening to.  Treating his predictions like they're anything but thinly-veiled viral marketing is an insult to respectable and ethical analysts everywhere.  He's made it clear on no uncertain terms that he has an ulterior motive to his predictions at all times, which immediately invalidates any analysis he might do.  Ethical analysis should be absent of the taint of expectation on the analyst's behalf, or failing that, have said taint acknowledged and minimized.  Pachter has never done either of these things.

Please take the ethical high ground and stop paying attention to this man's predictions.  That is all I have to say on this subject.



Sky Render - Sanity is for the weak.

Well, the 1st next gen console is going to be released by March, so I think next year will be largely up compared to next year