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Forums - Sales Discussion - First Day Sales in Japan (6/25)

Gnizmo said:
Solid_Snake4RD said:


LMAO

if you see the shiptment is just under 100k

 

and JAPAN seels most of its software on day 1

You get a reliable 50% boost in sales from first day to the rest of the week for most Japanese titles. That would put MHFO at an expected 97kish first week. Your bias is bleeding through very badly. It was quite reasonable to expect the game to possibly sneak over 100k. Your 80k prediction was laughable from the get go.

how was my 80k prediction laughable as other guy was aking over 100k sale

and how is my biased bleeding thought as shipments were only 100k,atleast the first one



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Solid_Snake4RD said:

how was my 80k prediction laughable as other guy was aking over 100k sale

and how is my biased bleeding thought as shipments were only 100k,atleast the first one

Because games get a reliable 50% boost from the first day of sales. I JUST posted that. 60k plus another 50% is 90k. That should provide the low end of expectations. Dropping 10k below that is laughable. Since it was 65k which gives a 97k estimate it is not unreasonable to expect a 3k rise in order to sneak just past 100k The numbers already back me up on it too. Also, second shipments for games with high sell through are common. You have been on this site long enough to know this.



Starcraft 2 ID: Gnizmo 229

Gnizmo said:
Solid_Snake4RD said:

how was my 80k prediction laughable as other guy was aking over 100k sale

and how is my biased bleeding thought as shipments were only 100k,atleast the first one

Because games get a reliable 50% boost from the first day of sales. I JUST posted that. 60k plus another 50% is 90k.

another 60% would be 120k and not 90k

 

That should provide the low end of expectations. Dropping 10k below that is laughable. Since it was 65k which gives a 97k estimate it is not unreasonable to expect a 3k rise in order to sneak just past 100k The numbers already back me up on it too.

I don't know how they back you up

Also, second shipments for games with high sell through are common. You have been on this site long enough to know this.

 

i know second shiptment is possible and happens many times,but as you can see it didn't even complete its first one

what i meant was that most of the first weeks numbers for a big name franchises like MH do it on the first day


they could do significant amount on the other days of the week but rarely do they do more then their opening day numbers for the cumulative of the other days of the first week combined

and do if MH did 65k first day,then it most probablt would not do over that plus as you can see the shipment was made accordingly





What does 60% have to do with anything? What the hell are you talking about? A game will sell between 1.5 and 2 times its initial day one shipment depending on game type. MH is the type that does 1.5 as seen with the 93k sold this week (which is how the numbers back me up). There is a second shipment if the first one is likely to sell out, and given the typical projections it would be very easy for some stores to sell out so it is reasonable to expect a second shipment. This isn't rocket science.



Starcraft 2 ID: Gnizmo 229

Gnizmo said:

What does 60% have to do with anything? What the hell are you talking about? A game will sell between 1.5 and 2 times its initial day one shipment depending on game type. MH is the type that does 1.5 as seen with the 93k sold this week (which is how the numbers back me up).

as you said 60% sales on first day that are 65k and the 50% in the rest of the week,but that way 50% for the rest of the week will take it over 100k which it didn't and the first shipment was not upto it,atleast they weren't expecting

 

There is a second shipment if the first one is likely to sell out, and given the typical projections it would be very easy for some stores to sell out so it is reasonable to expect a second shipment. This isn't rocket science.

yes a 2nd shipment comes but  big companies make projections with something in mind not just like that.thats why they didn't overship and as even the first day shipment didn't sell out

 

and please stop using "this isn't rocket science" statement,its so Cliche.





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as you said 60% sales on first day that are 65k and the 50% in the rest of the week,but that way 50% for the rest of the week will take it over 100k which it didn't and the first shipment was not upto it,atleast they weren't expecting

 Is that even English? I never said anything about 60% of anything. I can't come close to deciphering what you are even trying to get. I never mentioned 60%. Not once. I'll stop using the rocket science cliche when you start making sense.



Starcraft 2 ID: Gnizmo 229

Gnizmo said:

 

as you said 60% sales on first day that are 65k and the 50% in the rest of the week,but that way 50% for the rest of the week will take it over 100k which it didn't and the first shipment was not upto it,atleast they weren't expecting
you said that.i was just correcting your saying that 65K that MHO is 60% and it will get another 50% which it did not

 Is that even English? I never said anything about 60% of anything. I can't come close to deciphering what you are even trying to get. I never mentioned 60%. Not once. I'll stop using the rocket science cliche when you start making sense.

you mentioned it.just check your comments above.you said most titles would get 60% first day and then 50% on the other days of the first week

MHO made 87k,pretty near my 80k prediction.i was just confronting people that said it would go over 100k first week

 





Solid_Snake4RD said:


you mentioned it.just check your comments above.you said most titles would get 60% first day and then 50% on the other days of the first week

MHO made 87k,pretty near my 80k prediction.i was just confronting people that said it would go over 100k first week

 



I said no such thing. 66% of the sakes if a week come from the first day typically. 50% of the sales come from the rest of the week. This is Japan sales basics 101, not rocket science. MHFO did 93k by the by, and both are above your "80k maximum"



Starcraft 2 ID: Gnizmo 229

Gnizmo said:
Solid_Snake4RD said:


you mentioned it.just check your comments above.you said most titles would get 60% first day and then 50% on the other days of the first week

MHO made 87k,pretty near my 80k prediction.i was just confronting people that said it would go over 100k first week

 



I said no such thing. 66% of the sakes if a week come from the first day typically. 50% of the sales come from the rest of the week.

MHFO first week sales = 87k

First day sales = 65k = 74%

rest of the week = 23k = 26%


and you said 60% sales first day and 50% rest of the week

This is Japan sales basics 101, not rocket science.

what you said weren't JAPAN SALES BASICS 101,more like -101

and stop using that cliche statement,it sounds cheap

MHFO did 93k by the by, and both are above your "80k maximum"

MHFO did 87k,look at the VGC numbers

pretty close to 80k

 

 





These aren't VGC 1st day leaks, they're (supposedly) Famitsu.  We're still waiting on the real numbers from them.

Any way you slice it though "80k max" was dead wrong, according to everyone so far (VGC 87k, MC 93k, Denegeki 95k).  I doubt Fami will be any different, and like the other JP trackers will likely have the figure closer to 100k than not. ;)