I think the real point is you can't compare a device whos entry price is $500 (top end model being $830), to a technology that involves multiple device purchases and who's lowest entry price is in the thousands. Plus, for iPad you are going to have the Apple supporters buy it no matter what. To my knowledge there isn't a group of 3DTV "fanboys" out there that would purchase this, no matter the costs. Most 3D supporters, like myself, are waiting for the tech to evolve a little more and for prices to drop before we take the plunge.
That is my point. You have to market and price new technology to succeed. It's better to start out with a bang than a whimper.
The iPad was launched to succeed. They could have tried to launch it two years ago but it would have been too expensive, lacking content and clunky. MS on the other hand has been working on a tablet computer for probably decades. But their success has been terrible because they don't know how to develop, market and price appropriately.
Being first isn't always best. The iPod wasn't the first digital music player. Apple didn't have the brand name in consumer electronics at the time either. It succeeded because they developed, marketed and priced it to succeed.
A company like Apple could wait for Sony and whoever else to be the first on the block, then BAM they jump in and take the market in a couple years.
I see the 3d tv market in similar situation. Companies could be working on 3d technology for years. But all their work could go nowhere until they figure out how to bring the product to the mainstream.
Anyone can guess. It takes no effort to throw out lots of predictions and have some of them be correct. You are not and wiser or better for having your guesses be right. Even a blind man can hit the bullseye.