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Is It Possible For GT5 To OutSell Halo Reach Lifetime?...I Think So!

Forums - Sales Discussion - Is It Possible For GT5 To OutSell Halo Reach Lifetime?...I Think So!

I agree that GT5 will sell more. Reasons:

1) There has been 3 Halo games this gen (including Wars) and no GT games. As history shows the first GT game in each gen (GT & GT3) have outsold their respective sequels.

2) Reach has competition from Black Ops, GT5's biggest competition is probably Hot Pursuit which is a totally different type of racing game.

3) I think GT games have longer legs than Halo games and GT5 will sell well until GT6 comes out.



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i think GT5 can, but its Really hard to say. Going to be close thats for sure.



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Hyruken said:

The interesting thing about those figures is ODST is not even a year old (only been out since end of september) and it is already over 5m. Which is actually more then any of the PS3 exclusive games.

Personally as i have said before. Things have changed, this gen is not like the last gen. Games that we expected to do well have not done as well this gen. GTA:SA sold nearly 19m units making it one of the most sold games of all time. GTA4 has sold nearly 14m combined on all the formats. MGS1 2 both sold more then MGS4. Final Fantasy 13 sold 5m combined. 12 sold nearly 6m, and 10 sold nearly 8m, all on one console. etc etc

Point is it is hard to predict sales this gen. Games that came out around the peak of PS2 obviously sold a lot, we are yet to see an exclusive PS3 game break the 5m barrier. But what we know for sure is that Halo sells loads. We have to assume Reach will sell more then ODST and be on par at least with Halo 3's sales if not very close.

For GT5 to beat Reach it will need to break game records for this gen. I just can't see that happening.

However i think eventually they will do what they did with Pro Logue and include it with most PS3's for awhile.

To put a bit of context into it even if you add sales of the top 2 PS3 exclusives they are still nearly 3m behind Halo 3 sales.

GT is huge, Halo is gigantic 

well said.



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the title is wrong way round, when has halo ever been a bigger seller than gran turismo? it never has. its like you all just started gaming now something.  most of you probably have actually.



I like how everyone convieniently has forgotten that Halo 3 launched in the same holiday season as Call of Duty 4 and The Orange Box. How's that for competition?

EDIT: And oh look, a Halo 3 full price expansion puts up 5 million units going up against Modern Warfare 2 and Left 4 Dead 2. The argument that Halo's never gone up against competition before is a myth.



themanwithnoname's law: As an America's sales or NPD thread grows longer, the probabilty of the comment "America = World" [sarcasticly] being made approaches 1.

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The simple answer is No

Whoever wrote the first post in this thread is incredibly ignorant, and everyone who supports him lack an understanding of game sales. Not to be insulting, Gran Turismo is a great franchise, but Gran Turismo 5 will sell more poorly then all other prior Gran Turismo console titles, and Halo: Reach will be the best selliong Halo of all time, possibly even out seeling the best selling Gran Turismo of all time.

Why do I beleive this? Because GT1-4 were sold on the PS1 and PS2, two consoles which are far more popular then the PS3, and simply have a larger instal base. Gran Turismo in the past has outsold Halo titles, but Halo sold 5-11 million copies on consoles having an instal base of either 24 million (X-box) or 40 million (X-box 360). Compare then to PS1's instal base of over 100 million, and PS2's instal base approaching 140 million, thats an incredible acheivement for the Halo franchise. It's like bringing a knife to a gun fight and tieing. PS3 is not the same system as PS1 and PS2 were, and since there is a significantly smaller instal base, this means a significantly smaller sales rate, where Halo will work just the opposite.

Lets look at the real important figures, it's about analysing the data, not just compileing it and making statements without sound backing.

Gran Turismo 1 sold 10.85 million units on a PS1, with an instal base of 102.49 million, thats an attach rate of 10.6%. Follwing the same logic for Gran Turismo 1-4, and Halo 1-3 we get these results in order from largest to smallest.

Halo 2 - 35.1%

Halo 3 - 27.9%

Halo 1 - 26.8%

Halo 3: ODST - 12.9%

Gran Turismo 3 - 10.9%

Gran Turismo 1 - 10.6%

Gran Turismo 2 - 9.1%

Gran Turismo 4 - 7.7%

Even Halo 3: ODST which is not a porper mainstream Halo FPS title (Just like how Prologue isn't a proper Gran Turismo title), has a higher attach rate then any Gran Turismo game. Now assuming that the PS3 will have a final console sales figure of 65 million units (which is reasonable), and say Gran Turismo 5 has an attach rate of 11%, higher then any Gran Turismo title in the past, you will still see Gran Turismo only selling 7.15 million units. I agree with that figure, I really doubt Gran Turismo will sell more then 8 million units.

However Halo: Reach, lets just say it has an attach rate of 27% (the lowest of all mainstream Halo's), and lets say that the 360's final sales will also be 65 million in the end (although I personally feel Microsoft will get closer to 70 million and outsell the PS3, I am purposly lowering this figure to avoid conflict with many PS3 fanboys. This however gives Gran Turismo a little extra edge). This means that Halo Reach will sell 17.55 million units total.

Let me repeat, using mathamatics (something fanboys are un aware of), and analyzing sales, we see predicted sales of:

Halo: Reach - 17.55 million

Gran Turismo 5 - 7.15 million

Personally I don't think Halo: Reach will break 15 million sales, but you never know, Modern Warfare 2 surprised us all, and Halo is a more popular and better rated franchise (on the 360, overall Call of Duty is more popular).

Now some fanboys may argue this logic, but I have both consoles, and plan to get both games. So you can't label me favoring either side, I am simply analyzing the market.

The thing is this logic is sound for non super hardcore titles. Mario Kart Wii sold 22 million units on the Wii which has roughly 70 million sales. Mario Kart Double Dash sold 7 million on a console with 21 million sales. 3.5 times as many consoles, 3 times as many sales. Halo works the same way, Halo 3 has nearly doubled Halo 1's sales, and..the 360 is still 8 million sales short of doubling the original sales. Gran turismo even follows this pattern, Gran Turismo 3 sold 27% more copies then GT1, and PS2 sold 25% more units.

Astonishing what math and science do!!! I can predict future sales with the data!!

Now, reading some other points there are other factors at play.

1. Halo has more competition this fall, well thats just wrong. Halo 3 had to compete against Call of Duty: Modern Warfare, and Uncharted. Halo Reach has to compete against Medal of Honor, and Call of Duty: Black Ops...Well Treyarch CoD titles have never been as popular as infinity wards titles, and with infinity ward falling apart, this Call of Duty will most likely sell less then Modern Warfare 1 and 2, and possibly even World at War.

2. Gran Turismo has more competition then prior titles, True! Forza is a much more popular selling franchise then ever before. If you compare Forza Motorsport 3 week by week sales, they are supperior to Gran Turismo 3's!

3. Gran Turismo 1 and 3 were released close to the launch of the console, where GT5 is being launched more mid-life, similar to GT2 and 4, so if anything it will mirror GT2 and GT4 sales, True. I predicted GT5 selling a little over 7 million units, GT2 and 4 sold rouhly 10 million units. If Reach outsells Halo 3, which it will most likely do, it still outsells Gran Turismo. It doesn't even have to outsell Halo 3, just has to sell 90% as well to follow through.

4. Many racing fans (myself included), switched over to 360 for it's many exclusive racing titles. Project Gotham Racing 3-4, Forza 2-3, Test Drive Unlimited, Race Pro, etc. It's been 4 years since the PS3's launch, that is simply too long for many and will deminish some sales.

 

So basically, Halo: Reach will easily outsell Gran Turismo 5 sales, and likely double them (according to my predictions baised on simple mathematics).

Shove that in your pipe and smoke it :P



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LOL @ GT5 will only sell around halo reach 1st week LMFAO!!!! never LOL'ed so hard since that time when ppl said Forza3 will dethrone GT in and sell like 7m or sumthing eh? where is that game now? can't even outsell GT5P LOL.

Can't w8 for GT5 to release, im gonna rub it in the haters face so bad that they will leave the site in shame.<mark this>

Now the user base argument again ehh?

MGS3 on ps2 with 100m user base outsold by MGS4 released on a platform with less than 20m when the game came out.<<< explain or don't comment at all.

OT:GT5 will win LTD Halo reach will sell more First week.

 

Ohhh BTW boook marked this thread for the lulz in GT5 release day LOL!



Normally I would say GT5, since it has been 6 years in making and is the Noah's Ark for racing (Eurogamer); but since Reach is the LAST real Halo ever (Halo Legend 254 or watever don't count), so every Xbox owner might jump in the wagon to say good bye to Master Chief, Halo Reach might just outsell GT5. After Reach it would be all soccer mom's time on Xbox.



Robbie2010 said:

I think the question should be, is it possible for Halo to outsell GT lifetime?



thats right



Playstation 3 is looking at longer lifecycle than Xbox 360 (or atleast it looks like that), it's already outselling Xbox in the same time frame since release, it's selling more worldwide for the last 9 or so months, the gap is smaller than when they released and PS3 has the better momentum. So we are most likely looking at larger installbase for the PS3 in the end and without the threat to piracy. Even when XBox fans are FPS junkies and Halo is their religion, the oversaturation of the FPS genre and 2 Halo games prior to Reach this generation might decrease it's final sales in the end. On the other hand PS fans are waiting for a GT game for several years now, it allways was a flagship title and the GT5 looks better than any other racing game out there (not only visuals, but the game as a whole).

So my prediction is that LTD Gran Turismo 5 will have more units sold than Halo Reach and with significant difference (not 2:1, but with difference in millions). And I also think that first month sales difference between both of those games won't be that drastical as many here forsee it to be, Halo will have more units sold, but not by a lot.



MY HYPE LIST: 1) Gran Turismo 5; 2) Civilization V; 3) Starcraft II; 4) The Last Guardian; 5) Metal Gear Solid: Rising