It will make a big difference in the short term.
The price cut will help shift a lot of consoles and the new model will persuade a few people to buy it or for current 360 owners to re-buy. The first month sales will see 360 overtake PS3 once again.
Then going into the holidays 360 has it's AAA titles coming out. regardless of what the guy above said GT5 will not be a massive system seller because it is just about to enter it's 5th year since the console launched. Those people who love GT will have bought the console already as there will be loads of games that appeal to them. The assumption there are a mass horde of people waiting to buy the console when the game comes out is just wrong. When the game was supposed to come out in 2007 then yes it would of been right but not now. 140m consoles have been sold this gen, the only people buying a PS3 to play this game will be people who have bought other consoles already. If these people are 360 owners then would they really pay out again for the game when they have Forza series? A series which racing fans define as the best racing game out there? Europe is where most GT's are sold, in the UK to be precise. Last time around it was Sony country. It is no longer like that here.
Point being i do not think GT5 will have any effect at all on the 360's console sales. That is like saying Halo Reach will have an effect on PS3 sales, which it won't. Most people who want to play that game already own a 360.
Now the longterm is very different.
After the price cut old models are gone the new 360 will be potentially the only one on the market. An expensive console, almost the same price as the PS3 (£60 difference here in UK). We already see now the 360 numbers falling quite badly in some regions. Will a new £199 console really help those sales? I do not think so. If that happens we will just see a return to the current numbers. If that happens can that really be called a success? Again i do not think so. There would of been no point in making a new console to get the same sales as the old one.
Which makes me think something is not quite right. We will most likely see in november when Kinect comes out a new cheaper version of the current new slim. They said it won't be different names just different HD size. So i would expect a new arcade type 360 with a 20GB HD that will be aimed purely at these casuals Microsoft are after. Maybe one without a Wi-Fi. Which could mean they drop price by a lot. And in my opinion that will sell a lot.
So in short the current set up will have a boost but not a long one. Then in holidays were see the cheaper version announced to coincide with Kinect.