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Forums - Sony Discussion - Why people are overestimating the Wii's life time sales

PDF said:
Louie said:
PDF said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
PDF said:
RolStoppable said:
PDF said:




 






 


I dint say they attracted all 120M plus when you say 120M you do have to subtract for rebuys after borken consoles. Anyways games like those. I dint add Madden or Spyro,Crash,Rachet,Jack,Medalofhonor,Needforspeed,GrandTurismo,Ncaacollege football.Wrestlinggames,Driver,FinalFantsy. There are still lots more I just put up few.

 

Show me when the Gaming Market has gone down because all I have seen is year after year record breaking sales in total of all gaming.


 Jeez. One more time: Those titles you mention sell to hardocre gamers, a lot of PS2 buyers are casual gamers. You don´t believe me? Every European knows Singstar and Buzz and don´t tell me Singstar didn´t sell in the US. That´s true but there are still enough US casual gamers.

Second point: Look it up. We are on a sales site. Especially take a glance at the Japanese market. Go for it. 



Around the Network

2006:

Hardware:

ConsoleYearTotal
8,420,51314,053,258
1,884,4934,614,841
1,525,43821,487,036
959,153959,153
472,605472,605
410,60116,643,998
200,291285,314
77,6544,013,650
Total13,950,748
 
Software Totals:
ConsoleYearTotal
37,595,18452,488,699
19,435,803114,216,904
5,272,4958,272,800
2,658,33846,876,290
2,034,4432,034,443
750,996894,370
583,52921,317,287
470,616470,616
Total68,801,404 

 

2003:

 

 

Hardware:

ConsoleYearTotal
3,807,54511,985,278
3,282,62314,508,410
991,8842,987,767
272,13519,270,958
96,661428,209
54,060198,582
41,87731,297,691
13,915740,727
Total8,560,700
 
Software Totals:
ConsoleYearTotal
19,805,45162,974,153
11,035,17726,396,238
6,717,80214,017,970
316,5291,015,402
119,872138,931,934
76,43077,566,435
18,91031,954,755
Total

38,090,171



PDF said:
@my point is the wii is for Kids and families and that will die down. The perception of the Wii is: It is all good and joy it is safe kid friendly system and parents will be ably to play it with thier kids too. That is why it is selling so well now. In 2 years people will have goten bored of it and it's novelty will go down.

Because kids and families get tired of playing and spending time together?

It isnt selling because of games but because of perception. Only games I want on the Wii are Super Smash and SMG after that I am done.

Because since you only want 2 games everyone else only wants those same 2 games?


I guess I'm somehow missing your logic.



Smash Bros: 2363-5325-6342 

PDF said:
@SSj2 - I agree PC is better but I do not think more people play those games on the PC over Console.
@my point is the wii is for Kids and families and that will die down. The perception of the Wii is: It is all good and joy it is safe kid friendly system and parents will be ably to play it with thier kids too. That is why it is selling so well now. In 2 years people will have goten bored of it and it's novelty will go down. It isnt selling because of games but because of perception. Only games I want on the Wii are Super Smash and SMG after that I am done.

 well since no other games will ever come out after those it's good you only want those two.



^ Personally I can see a slightly growth of about 100% in the Japanese software market and still a significant growth in the hardware market - because of the DS which goes for the same market as the Wii does.

 

Edit: I mean in my last post. Jeez, people are fast today



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Avinash_Tyagi said:
PDF said:
@RolStoppable - give me a reason why people want to buy a inferior console after price of the 360 and ps3 are near that of the wii.
@Rath - PSP was going into a Nintendo dominated market to start with. Also DS is exaclty what handheld owners want. A handheld not a console that has been stripped down to handheld size. The DS power between the PSP is not as big of a gap between the Wii and ps3.

 Same reson they stuck with the PS2 last gen even thought the Xbox was the same price, games, and contrary to what you say Wii games are better than those on the PS3 and 360, Metroid prime 3 is hailed as the best controls, RE4 Wii is hailed as the definitive version, Mario Galaxy is the second best game of all time in terms of reviews, Wii fit is exploding in Japan, SSBB and Mario Kart wait on the wings, and a flood of other games are poised ready to join the fray.

 

The DS is not a home console, but it does show what drives a market, accessibility, fun gameplay, width of demographic appeal, Wii has all of these, PS3 and 360 do not have, theyare much more limited in appeal


See, for me I never bought an Xbox because for one it was freakin HUGE and two the controller SUCKS, as does the 360s. And yes, it had no games that I wanted to play. As I said earlier in the post, I do enjoy playing the WII, I really like the fact it plays Gamecube games as well. The fact it has Wi-fi built in already makes it worth more than a 360. That said, I still dont see it lasting longer than the PS3. I dont get why people cant see that the controller is what is selling this thing. Thats the only reason my kid wanted it, and to me is what makes it fun. That however will fade...IMO. The 360 will probably launch a new console before it due to all its hardware issues, but I think Nintendo will want to make the new Wii at least 720P. So in say another 3 years or so when it will be a lot cheaper to accomplish this. By then they should have the controls  lot tighter as whell, and maybe even have some better variants for it. That coupled with some HD games would make for a really good console.



PDF said:
Louie said:
PDF said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
PDF said:
RolStoppable said:
PDF said:




 




I believe the Market was dong just fine without the Wii. It Continues to grow and did so without the Wii.

 Uhm....no? I won´t even explain it, this is a sales site, go and look it up. The market didn´t grow if you go by year-to-year sales since the release of the PSX it just looks like it grew because the PS2 is in its 7th year.

The games i have named are diverse and have attracted many. Maby alone they answer a niche but together they = a whole fanbase.

You really think those games attracted 120 million people in the PS2´s life? Many casual gamers bought a PS2, the Wii only broadens this audience that´s all. Without casual gamers our beloved gaming would be a small, very small market. 


 


I dint say they attracted all 120M plus when you say 120M you do have to subtract for rebuys after borken consoles.  Anyways games like those.  I dint add Madden or Spyro,Crash,Rachet,Jack,Medalofhonor,Needforspeed,GrandTurismo,Ncaacollege football.Wrestlinggames,Driver,FinalFantsy.   There are still lots more I just put up few.

 

Show me when the Gaming Market has gone down because all I have seen is year after year record breaking sales in total of all gaming.


 Sales do not equal profits, costs have been rising fast, without the Wii this would continue until the market collapsed, you cannot sustain an industry where rising costs are outpacing revenue



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

darendt said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
PDF said:
@RolStoppable - give me a reason why people want to buy a inferior console after price of the 360 and ps3 are near that of the wii.
@Rath - PSP was going into a Nintendo dominated market to start with. Also DS is exaclty what handheld owners want. A handheld not a console that has been stripped down to handheld size. The DS power between the PSP is not as big of a gap between the Wii and ps3.

 Same reson they stuck with the PS2 last gen even thought the Xbox was the same price, games, and contrary to what you say Wii games are better than those on the PS3 and 360, Metroid prime 3 is hailed as the best controls, RE4 Wii is hailed as the definitive version, Mario Galaxy is the second best game of all time in terms of reviews, Wii fit is exploding in Japan, SSBB and Mario Kart wait on the wings, and a flood of other games are poised ready to join the fray.

 

The DS is not a home console, but it does show what drives a market, accessibility, fun gameplay, width of demographic appeal, Wii has all of these, PS3 and 360 do not have, theyare much more limited in appeal


See, for me I never bought an Xbox because for one it was freakin HUGE and two the controller SUCKS, as does the 360s. And yes, it had no games that I wanted to play. As I said earlier in the post, I do enjoy playing the WII, I really like the fact it plays Gamecube games as well. The fact it has Wi-fi built in already makes it worth more than a 360. That said, I still dont see it lasting longer than the PS3. I dont get why people cant see that the controller is what is selling this thing. Thats the only reason my kid wanted it, and to me is what makes it fun. That however will fade...IMO. The 360 will probably launch a new console before it due to all its hardware issues, but I think Nintendo will want to make the new Wii at least 720P. So in say another 3 years or so when it will be a lot cheaper to accomplish this. By then they should have the controls  lot tighter as whell, and maybe even have some better variants for it. That coupled with some HD games would make for a really good console.


 No need to launch it in three years, as Wii is selling so well, there is no indication that Wii will slow down, or that it will suddenly die out, you say it is the controller, well you're half right, it is the way the games use the controller, notice that Wii games are very accessible, to the point that almost anyone can get involved and do, that is what is important, the controls must be easy to acess and give an experieicne not found elsewhere, in addition it must have software that appels to all and reaches out to underserved market again it does that, I think people who thin kthe Wii will die out don't realize that the market is bigger than GTA



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

Louie said:

^ Personally I can see a slightly growth of about 100% in the Japanese software market and still a significant growth in the hardware market - because of the DS which goes for the same market as the Wii does.

 

Edit: I mean in my last post. Jeez, people are fast today


 Louie, you're using facts to support a reasonable argument. PDF is merely stating her perception and beliefs. I appreciate your integrity and reasonableness but I don't think PDF will.



PDF said:

@ louie - lol I really thought I put Singstar on there.

Anyways

SNES:50M Gen:30M =80M

N64:32M PS:102M = 134M

PS2:120m xbox:24M = 144M

I just took the top 2 console and as you can see an improvement form gen to gen.


I´m sorry if you mentioned Singstar but my point was this is a casual game and what was working on a PS2 will work on a Wii, too.

About your numbers: there is no software included and once more: The PS2 was on the market for 7 years now, way more than the PSX had. You have to go by year-to-year sales: take a look at the numbers I posted above, the Japanese market was getting smaller with every year. Only Europe was growing on a year-to-year basis.