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Pacher Explains Why He Predicts WiiHD Believes Will Will Lose MarketShare

Forums - Sales Discussion - Pacher Explains Why He Predicts WiiHD Believes Will Will Lose MarketShare

Garnett said:
TheSource said:

When I argue about this with him, I just remind him that Nintendo is likely to announce the Wii successor for late 2011 / late 2012 to kill off any momentum Move might be building.

The fact of the matter is a Wii HD starts with a base of "0 Users" as does the PS3 Move base. So an HD Wii is 75-80m behind X360/PS3 if it releases in 2010, and the PS3 base for Move is going to be 75-80m behind Wii when it launches this year


By the time the Wii HD does come out, the PS3 would of already done everything the Wii HD does. (It only does everything!!!)

HD console = PS3

HD format = PS3

Good online service = PS3

Motion controls = PS3

The PS3 MOVE user base may start from Zero but remember, its gonna have a 2-3 year head start, and in 2-3 years the PS3 may be at 50 million plus, so  Move will be accessable to those 50 million current PS3 owners, and all for $100 or less. Compared to the Wii HD which will probably launch at $200-300 and without a decent online service and Blue Ray.

Nintendo is gonna have a problem if Sony decides to Bundle it with EVERY ps3, for one price.


sony will probably be gearing a ps upgrade on the market too, but when depends how fast the market reacts.

sony choice of overengineering the ps3 may pay off after all. ps3 it's getting motion control 1-1 and 3d and it got the storage to support great games. 4 dual layer DVD are 200gb.

nintendo will have to find something to capture the market again next gen, nintendo will probably try to milk the wii as much they can, releasing new colors (already starting) and maybe a revision (like they do for the DS )

nintendo was able to get where it's because it was cheap, games didn't look bad considering the specs on the machine at least nintendo crafted games.

ps3 it's more expensive even today ,casuals of course know about graphics, but then when u have tons of family on   SD and the console does the job of keeping the kids busy, wii was obvious choice. but then next gen what will happen? 3d will take off?



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Xoj said:
Garnett said:
TheSource said:

When I argue about this with him, I just remind him that Nintendo is likely to announce the Wii successor for late 2011 / late 2012 to kill off any momentum Move might be building.

The fact of the matter is a Wii HD starts with a base of "0 Users" as does the PS3 Move base. So an HD Wii is 75-80m behind X360/PS3 if it releases in 2010, and the PS3 base for Move is going to be 75-80m behind Wii when it launches this year


By the time the Wii HD does come out, the PS3 would of already done everything the Wii HD does. (It only does everything!!!)

HD console = PS3

HD format = PS3

Good online service = PS3

Motion controls = PS3

The PS3 MOVE user base may start from Zero but remember, its gonna have a 2-3 year head start, and in 2-3 years the PS3 may be at 50 million plus, so  Move will be accessable to those 50 million current PS3 owners, and all for $100 or less. Compared to the Wii HD which will probably launch at $200-300 and without a decent online service and Blue Ray.

Nintendo is gonna have a problem if Sony decides to Bundle it with EVERY ps3, for one price.


sony will probably be gearing a ps upgrade on the market too, but when depends how fast the market reacts.

sony choice of overengineering the ps3 may pay off after all. ps3 it's getting motion control 1-1 and 3d and it got the storage to support great games. 4 dual layer DVD are 200gb.

nintendo will have to find something to capture the market again next gen, nintendo will probably try to milk the wii as much they can, releasing new colors (already starting) and maybe a revision (like they do for the DS )

nintendo was able to get where it's because it was cheap, games didn't look bad considering the specs on the machine at least nintendo crafted games.

ps3 it's more expensive even today ,casuals of course know about graphics, but then when u have tons of family on   SD and the console does the job of keeping the kids busy, wii was obvious choice. but then next gen what will happen? 3d will take off?


So is Nintendo  ready to enter the we sell hardware at lost fanclub? Lol if they did they would steal the show!!!LOL

Imagine the look on all the PS3 owners when they learn theres a machine thats better then theres and its from Nintendo

OMG mass suicide Hahah

 

Like a million Gorges screeming this was supposed to be the Summer of PS3!!!!!!!



Face the facts: The Wii has already hundreds of Motion games (and some very good!) and on top of that there are so many great core games for the Wii in 2010 that I think it will be the other way round: Some PS360 owners will buy a Wii.



wow, wow,

just another proof that micheal pachter has a lot of people by the nuts, believing that he is in anyway credible

 



my signature went on strike, it's demanding 3% raise

Pachter talks more about this in the pre-e3 show on GameTrailers.com

 

He states he does not believe WiiHD is coming this year. of course he thinks Nintendo is missing their chance to expand the market and compete with Move and Natal. But I think if he predicts it next year he might be right , my bet is that WiiHD or Wii2 is going to be announced and released in 2011.

Fact is Sony will not see the success Nintendo saw when they release Move. Microsoft might see about 10-million Natal's sold in its lifespan but neither format will be able to challenge Nintendo's grip on the market. All Nintendo needs to do if Move is successful is to cut the price of the Wii and/or bundle it with new software.

I think Nintendo will launch the next Wii in 2011, not giving Move or Natal more then a year to live. At the same time Microsoft will have their next console shown and Sony will likely follow suit. Meaning Natal and Move won't make any difference to Nintendo what so ever.

The best Natal and Move will do is to take up to 10% of Nintendo's marketshare between the two. But I'm guessing neither controller will even perform that well!



-JC7

"In God We Trust - In Games We Play " - Joel Reimer

 

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This year Nintendo smash the PSP

Next year its time Nintendo starts making Consule's at lost. By E3 2011 I want a rig from Nintendo that blows the PS3 right out of the water for 200$. No more mister nice guy!

If they want to touch My motion controlers. I say Nintendo, dont stop until Sony is a dead husk.
Its on like Donkey Kong Biat6ch!!!

=)

 



From the start of 2011 they will have one very nice off the shelf CPU code named Ontario which is 2 CPU cores GPU on ~87mm^2 die size with limited numbers of pins designed for a more embedded class product with few USB ports etc. They could go for the TSMC 40nm version or they could wait for the quad core 28nm Global Foundries version.



Tease.

Admitting that Move and Natal manage to "steal" some motion control market share from Wii, Wii HD wouldn't be enough to counter them.

But even in the worst case, by the time Wii will dive under 120k/week average during slow periods, it will have sold more than 100M units, in a record time too, so Wii success won't be disputed anyway.

I agree anyway that Nintendo will launch Wii2, Zii or whatever it will be called, before Wii's momentum fades too much or competitors get too strong (if it will ever have  chance to happen this gen), that is it won't allow Wii to lose 1st place, at least WW and yearly (and even less as total lifetime sales), before its successor is launched.

I don't believe, anyway, that Nintendo isn't worried at all, because Wii's and DS' success is so huge and unprecedented that repeating it won't be easy.

About Vitality Sensor: it will sell at least like Virtual Boy, but will it sell games?



Stwike him, Centuwion. Stwike him vewy wuffly! (Pontius Pilate, "Life of Brian")

A fart without stink is like a sky without stars.

TGS, Third Grade Shooter: brand new genre invented by Kevin Butler exclusively for Natal WiiToo Kinect. PEW! PEW-PEW-PEW!

        

Barozi said:
DixieKong said:
Metallicube said:

Jesus Christ Patcher.. The average consumer DOES NOT CARE about HD! Do you really think a 14 year old girl or old man buying the Wii is going to be like, you know.. these motion control games are awesome, but I'd REALLY love to play them in HD!


This is pretty much what I was going to say. Most of the people who purchased a Wii have no interest in HD graphics, because if they did they would have just bought an HD console from the start. Michael Pachter just doesn't seem to understand that people enjoy the Wii for Nintendo's games, not HD graphics and all the other non gaming extras. 

Totally wrong. Pachter has a Wii for exact those reasons.

Yes, but he has always insisted that Nintendo should make a Wii HD in order to provide the Wii audience with HD graphics and non gaming features that the competition has. But this is not the reason why most of the expanded audience bought the Wii in the first place. It would be a very poor business decision for Nintendo to release a HD version of the Wii since it is too late into the generation, most developers wouldn't bother to support it, and not many people will upgrade simply to play their games in HD. 



leo-j said:

HD penetration is great, and is increasing greatly as time goes by.. and I really believe the wii's selling point is it's controller, and the way it offers motion gaming and the get up and play mechanic..

I suspect most people view the 360 or ps3 has just gaming machines, like the wii, and say , "The wii has motion games though, so I think it's better" . That's hwat I believe.


That view isn't really backed up by the sales of the games though. If it was as simple as people seeing all Wii games as simply being motion games then why do the Nintendo ones sell a ton more than the third party ones?

If there was no 'Nintendo factor' or whatever you might call it, then the sales would be more evenly spread.



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