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Forums - Sales Discussion - Pacher Explains Why He Predicts WiiHD Believes Will Will Lose MarketShare

Squilliam said:
greenmedic88 said:
Squilliam said:

Releasing an updated Wii HD with a native resolution of 1080P would be quite frankly a waste of their time. Pixels for the most part are over-rated given the fact that they would see much more benefit increasing the per pixel effects than increasing the number of pixels rendered to 4-5* the current Wii output. Most of the changes would go above the head of their own userbase. They would be far better off releasing a significantly faster replacement Wii and using that to really WOW the socks off a userbase which has been subsisting on progressive scan Xbox 1 level graphics at twice the frame rate.

They will of course release a Wii 2 or whatever they want to call it with more performance than is currently available on the systems today. I think its par for the course to expect that. That won't be their only improvement but its a start and its a good position to be in especially if Sony/Microsoft hold onto their systems for a few more years. The hardcore are the people with itchy feet so getting out first with a more powerful system will instantly give them a more balanced game ecosystem which they failed to get in this generation.

The CPU I pick for them is a fusion AMD based system. They can easily wedge 2-4 cores and 160-480 stream processors into a space which will be smaller than the Xbox 360 CPU with a narrower and cheaper memory bus which is attached to 64bit 4x 16bit 2Gbit @7Gbps (1GB) GDDR5 (50GB/S) inbuilt 16-32GB flash and a slimline 4 speed Blu Ray drive for $249. Its neat and simply and yet doesn't break their design parameters whilst giving them excellent power and performance attributes. Furthermore they don't have to tell developers about it until the year of release because all software would be easily portable to their system anyway. Every developer is familiar with X86 development and all developers have X86 development PCs.  

You essentially described in greater detail what I already mentioned, only you went into specific guesses/recommendations on hardware specs.

Of course, the more specific one gets when it comes to predicting these sort of things, typically means being further off from actual product specifications without legit insider information.

I'll be surprised if Nintendo uses BD format for their next system as they have always gone with proprietary formats of their own design.

Besides, as it's already been suggested, the window of opportunity for releasing an updated Wii mid-cycle is relatively small, meaning Nintendo's next console is more likely to extend beyond Mighty Impressive Hardware Specs and will end up offering gamers something creatively new and different at a reasonable asking price while simultaneously being profitable on Day 1.

But, any such hypothetical console would be an all new platform with the only likely ties to the Wii being backwards compatibility and more motion controls of some sort.

My point was that it was never viable for them to release a part way updated Wii HD. The per pixel effects have always been and for the foreseeable future will be considerably more important than the number of pixels rendered. The people here who complain about things like that are only complaining because they first decide they want to poke their finger at something and its a convenient target to complain about as its measurable.

Lol, sorry I went into specifications because I love technology! It was my bad... I just wanted to offer up a rough guide as to what they might do with the physical hardware in a way which supports the three market development options of innovation, disruption and iteration on their existing design.



           Yes and no. some of them are simply just  looking for a visual entertainment system. There is a market for Visualy stunning effects as Hollywood has shown with Action movies.

          When all you really want at the and of the day is to see stuff blow up in a really cool way, then Nintendo's Wii is not going to serve you very much. Is Visuals a nitch market? a big one, alot of people watch action movies.

          People love hightek. Supporting companies like Sony's definitly going to push your Home entertainment system forward. the more success they will have, the more they will push that idea forward.

          E3 this year Is nothing more then Sony and Xbox admiting they were wrong to push Visuals and leaving substance as the after thought. They will adjust to the customer voting with there money on more substance, less visuals. They have no choice but to give more substance from now on out if they want to stay in the market. 

          This is very good news for all gamers. Nintendo is like the markets Software substance police. Or standard. The Wii is a good investment  for any gamers to buy for that fact alone. It makes sure our gaming will not degenerate into a self serving industry.

          Sony and Xbox are going to push new gamplay forward to balence there consule experience, so its more in line with the market.

          Will Nintendo move for more substance or  visuals next? Now the mistake here would be to automaticly say more substance. As much as substance is really good. Ignoreing everything other then it would be making the same mistake then going to much visual and no substance. 

          So I say Let there be More substance and more Visuals!

 

 



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Finally, after E3 most important announcements by Ninty, Sony and MS, we have a lot more elements to define  MS and Sony's counter-attacks. But we still miss some important things: official MS Kinect pricing, actual launch games line-up for both, as something could still be added, and most important of all, users reaction and actual sales both in the short and longer term.

BTW in this thread we talked about a lot more things, but about the thread's topic, WiiHD WASN'T announced, now what remains to see is whether Wii's share will shrink or not. But should it do it, would it be due to the lack of WiiHD? Or something else? And how will we be able to tell? I guess we'll have to ask Pachter again, we lack the necessary wisdom.



Stwike him, Centuwion. Stwike him vewy wuffly! (Pontius Pilate, "Life of Brian")
A fart without stink is like a sky without stars.
TGS, Third Grade Shooter: brand new genre invented by Kevin Butler exclusively for Natal WiiToo Kinect. PEW! PEW-PEW-PEW! 
 


Garnett said:

Technology is what sells game systems, The technology inside the Wii mote sold the Wii, without the Wii mote the Wii wouldn't be anywhere. With better Wii mote technology developers can make better games and they will sell, thus opening up the "hardcore" market for Nintendo.

Games are what sells game systems.



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Alby_da_Wolf said:

Finally, after E3 most important announcements by Ninty, Sony and MS, we have a lot more elements to define  MS and Sony's counter-attacks. But we still miss some important things: official MS Kinect pricing, actual launch games line-up for both, as something could still be added, and most important of all, users reaction and actual sales both in the short and longer term.

BTW in this thread we talked about a lot more things, but about the thread's topic, WiiHD WASN'T announced, now what remains to see is whether Wii's share will shrink or not. But should it do it, would it be due to the lack of WiiHD? Or something else? And how will we be able to tell? I guess we'll have to ask Pachter again, we lack the necessary wisdom.

Well, I know all the Black Wii at my local Wall mart are sold out. Nintendo did well at this E3, and even if they slow down a bit i dont forcast a huge decrease in sells.

 

Its natural that a system fades after some time.  Yes the Wii is definitly passed it peak.

 

The next Wii will likly be The Wii 3D says Iwata

http://wii.nintendolife.com/news/2010/06/e3_2010_wii_2_will_probably_be_3d_says_iwata

http://friendfeed.com/dearart/c4383428/johnny-chung-lee-wii-projects



i think that guys right



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Pachter believes the way he does because when the marketers said that graphics matter, he bought into it. They are wrong, and so he is wrong.



Complexity is not depth. Machismo is not maturity. Obsession is not dedication. Tedium is not challenge. Support gaming: support the Wii.

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What do I hate about modern gaming? I hate tedium replacing challenge, complexity replacing depth, and domination replacing entertainment. I hate the outsourcing of mechanics to physics textbooks, art direction to photocopiers, and story to cheap Hollywood screenwriters. I hate the confusion of obsession with dedication, style with substance, new with gimmicky, old with obsolete, new with evolutionary, and old with time-tested.
There is much to hate about modern gaming. That is why I support the Wii.

Albion said:
Alby_da_Wolf said:

Finally, after E3 most important announcements by Ninty, Sony and MS, we have a lot more elements to define  MS and Sony's counter-attacks. But we still miss some important things: official MS Kinect pricing, actual launch games line-up for both, as something could still be added, and most important of all, users reaction and actual sales both in the short and longer term.

BTW in this thread we talked about a lot more things, but about the thread's topic, WiiHD WASN'T announced, now what remains to see is whether Wii's share will shrink or not. But should it do it, would it be due to the lack of WiiHD? Or something else? And how will we be able to tell? I guess we'll have to ask Pachter again, we lack the necessary wisdom.

Well, I know all the Black Wii at my local Wall mart are sold out. Nintendo did well at this E3, and even if they slow down a bit i dont forcast a huge decrease in sells.

 

Its natural that a system fades after some time.  Yes the Wii is definitly passed it peak.

 

The next Wii will likly be The Wii 3D says Iwata

http://wii.nintendolife.com/news/2010/06/e3_2010_wii_2_will_probably_be_3d_says_iwata

http://friendfeed.com/dearart/c4383428/johnny-chung-lee-wii-projects

For reasons I don't know the biggest chains of electronics and appliances stores here delayed two weeks the application of the official drop announced by Nintendo for Wii plus WM Plus (*) bundles, smaller chains applied it immediately, but they haven't enough supplies to replace the bigs, so I expect to see better Wii sales with a slight delay (as people knew about the official drop, it was heavily advertised) compared to other countries.

About 3D, until tech evolves, Wii too will have to use glasses for 3D on TVs, parallax barrier screens don't allow to enjoy 3D effect wrom whatever position as needed on family TVs, they are good for single user applications (or dual user on cars, with different 2D images for driver and passenger, but no 3D, in that case).

 

(*) Edit: damn, plus character now disappears on VGC forums



Stwike him, Centuwion. Stwike him vewy wuffly! (Pontius Pilate, "Life of Brian")
A fart without stink is like a sky without stars.
TGS, Third Grade Shooter: brand new genre invented by Kevin Butler exclusively for Natal WiiToo Kinect. PEW! PEW-PEW-PEW!