Quantcast
FAMITSU sales (5/24 5/30) -- SMG2 in 1st!

Forums - Sales Discussion - FAMITSU sales (5/24 5/30) -- SMG2 in 1st!

Darc Requiem said:
Metallicube said:
trestres said:
Metallicube said:
trestres said:
Metallicube said:

This is why I was growing concerned for the Wii in Japan, because I didn't expect Galaxy 2 to move any Wiis there, and sure enough, it didn't. The game might move consoles a bit in the West, but not in Japan, where 2D Mario vastly outpaces 3D Mario in terms of popularity.

The remedy for Wii's stagnation in Japan is Wii Party, and on a larger scale, Wii Relax. Those are the types of games that move systems there, games that try new things and draw in new crowds. Nintendo needs to keep releasing more games like Wii Fit in Japan that push the boundaries of the very definition of a game, in addition to more motion plus games that show Nintendo put some work into them.

Of course, there will be some other games, like the Dragon Quest games, Monster Hunters, and established Nintendo franchises like Pikmin, Star Fox, Kirby, etc, that may move a few units there as well. But to TRULY keep the momentum, Nintendo needs to keep creating not only new games, but entirely new GENRES.

Nintendo can only do so much on their own. Without the help of third parties that will be impossible, because they will have to go through long droughts and momentum is then lost and people just moves on to the consoles where the games are, like it happened after 2008.

A few things though.. For one, it's not like Wii's 3rd party support is non exsitent in Japan. There are some decent titles like 2 Dragon Quest games, Last Story, Xenoblade, Line Attack Heroes, etc., and Red Steel 2 was just released, though with poor sales.. 

But also, it's not like PS3 has an incredible amount of 3rd party games being released their either. The amount of games coming out, last I checked, were barely more than Wii's. And of course, Xbox 360 is pretty much irrelivant in Japan.

It's not an issue of the Wii specifically, and its 3rd party support. It's more a matter of console gaming in general there, which has taken a backseat to portables and continues to decline.

Of course more 3rd party support couldn't hurt, but I honestly don't think Nintendo needs them to keep the Wii going in Japan. They got through it fine during the N64 days, and add this to the fact that Japan is a shrinking market, Nintendo could probably string along the Wii over there solely on 1st and 2nd party titles if they wanted. 3rd parties would just release more shovelware anyway, so best it's left off the console. 

Nintendo also has plenty of developement studios to keep the games coming, it's not like they have a 10 person team to pump out all their games..


Xenoblade, The Last Story and Line Attack Heroes are 1st party. Line Attack Heros doesn't even have a date there and I really doubt it will sell more than 50k judging by the sales of other smaller 1st party games.

PS3 does really have more games than the Wii, like 3 times more upcoming third party games than the Wii, I can PM you or post in your wall the list which BTW I update on a daily basis.

Like I said before, home consoles declined because of bad decisions made by the devs, not because users don't care for them anymore. Wii was a huge success during it's first 2 years, as was PS2 during all its life, but Wii's momentum was lost because devs ignored it for the most part and some are even labeling it as a dead console.

If Nintendo didn't need 3rd party support Wii sales would have never declined, but we know that Nintendo aren't perfect and 2 badly planned releases killed the whole momentum (AC:CF and Wii Music) there was no recovery after that. Had the Wii had strong 3rd party support they would have managed to get through relatively well, but reality is it was a complete disaster.

Nintendo has many tams, true, but they also have 2 (soon 3) consoles to develop for, and they even admitted they managed their resources badly and delayed a lot of games. Again, Nintendo isn't perfect, so one mistake they make and it all goes bad, simply because they are the only ones keeping the Wii alive.

Those are at least 2nd party titles aren't they? Nintendo certainly isn't developing them themselves, only publishing them..

Well whatever, if the Wii dies in Japan then I guess the fault lies with the 3rd parties, not Nintendo. Not much they can do about that then. When every other developer out there is going against one, you tend to be outnumbered. Maybe Nintendo will just have to ride out the West for the rest of the Wii's life (which is still going quite strong), and hopefully 3rd parties will finally get their heads out of their asses and develop for Nintendo's next home console.  

But really, one more NSMB (or a game of equal impact) and the Wii is on fire there again, so I really don't think 3rd party support is as important for Nintendo in Japan as you make it seem.

Xenoblade is first party. Nintendo own Monolithsoft. The Last Story is second party it's a Mistwalker title. I'm not sure about LIne Attack Heroes.

1st party as in the pubisher. Nintendo contracted those guys to make the game. Mistwalker would be 3rd party, not second. But Nintendo hired them, it's different, so the game is 1st party, since Nintendo has the rights. Line attack heroes comes from an independent team, but Nintendo has the rights to the game, so it's 1st party as well.



Proud poster of the 10000th reply at the Official Smash Bros Update Thread.

tag - "I wouldn't trust gamespot, even if it was a live comparison."

Bets with Conegamer:

Pandora's Tower will have an opening week of less than 37k in Japan. (Won!)
Pandora's Tower will sell less than 100k lifetime in Japan.
Stakes: 1 week of avatar control for each one.

Fullfilled Prophecies

Around the Network
TheSource said:

Look at September and December 2009 for PS3. It isn't going to match those numbers barring another price cut and a huge game. PS3 had its only weeks over 100k in that four month period - being up by 40-50% now isn't a huge deal if those weeks can't be matched. I think they'll be able to match a couple of them, but probably not all of them (not that they need to since they're up so much), but I mean week one in Sept was 150k or so.

GRan Turismo 5 will launch then.

And MOVE might do something..



All hail the KING, Andrespetmonkey

Hero_time88 said:

You think that a console for which there still room for a couple of price-cuts with Japanese 3rd support that improves every year has already seen it's best days?


Yes I do, considering

a. It's now year 4, and most consoles peak in sales in their 3rd year

b. PS3 doesn't seem to have much left gamewise for Japan outside FFIV and GT5. I'm talking system movers..

c. Console gaming in general is on the decline in Japan, and not many games are being released for consoles anymore.

d. Like I said, most established franchises in Japan are losing popularity, so Sony would have to rely more on new ips, which don't tend to do as well in Japan.

PS3 may have a few big weeks left during the holidays, but nothing that should match the slimline model pricedrop FFXIII boost last year.



@The source

 

3D

MOVE

GT5

that in combination can move consoles.. how can you not look at the worst possibilities, and just look at the best ones for the wii? It's not out of the realm of possibility that the ps3 starts to steal the wii's market with MOVE, and develops a new one with 3D gaming, and captures Ps2 owners with GT5..ofcourse that's a win win win situation for ps3, and a lose lose for the wii, but it certainly is not impossible. You tend to favor the wii alot when it comes to sales.. You need to try and be more neutral with both consoles and consider the possibilities with both.



 

mM

Please.. Move will not move PS3s in Japan, especially not at $100. Why would they, when not even Wii can make an impact there anymore with its motion controls?

It may have a chance, to make some sort of impact, but Sony needs to realize that with the new control scheme, they need to reach out to new audience and create new genres, like Nintendo did. I don't see this happening, I see Sony simply tacking on motion controls to their core franchises, which won't be enough to suddenly entice the Japanese.

Nintendo has the edge in Japan in the long term, because of their ability to create evergreen titles, and games that bring in new and ex gamers. Sony hasn't really shown the ability to do this.

Also, 3D will CERTAINLY not make an impact in Japan. Not when you have to wear stupid glasses and invest in a $3000 TV, when people are JUST now starting to get HD TVs.. If you think 3D will really boost PS3 whatsoever, you are grasping for straws.

In terms of GT5, obviously it will move some consoles, but I fail to see why most PS2 users would suddenly migrate to PS3 after that game, when thus far they've gone 3 and a half years without upgrading. Clearly they just don't want one.



Around the Network
trestres said:

I meant in the same timeframe since launch. I know you understood my point, but since you had no way to make a counter argument, you pretended I was wrong. Now your whole post is irrelevant and you ended up like a dishonest person.

Also, notice that Japan got Wii Fit in 2007, so the effect didn't last as long as in the West which got it in mid 2008. You have clearly no idea of release dates in Japan and therefore your argument about Wii losing steam magically in Japan compared to the West is completely wrong.

Then your reasons as for why home consoles are big in the USA and not in Japan are terrible. Japan always had the same amount of terrain available to build houses on, that didn't affect the previous 4 gens where there were also handhelds available and where home consoles sold impressive numbers. Japan has been the same country in terms of occupied space since 1980 and onwards, your reasons about them not having space arehorrendous honestly. The USA is buying the same amount as always, don't know where you get the idea otherwise.

Still going by your reasoning, Europe also hates consoles then I assume?

Lastly, saying third party games don't count is just... I have no words. You think PS1 and PS2 won all magically by themselves? The droves of games coming out for them were astounding, something never seen before in the previous gens. Without them Sony would have never been able to beat Nintendo, which actually didn't need 3rd party support in the SNES and NES eras as much as Sony did, because it was almost like a monopoly back then. Nintendo controlled third parties and their consoles were the ones selling, so 3rd parties had to accept the way Nintendo managed the whole VG market. Had Sony not received all that 3rd party support, then history would have repeated itself again with Nintendo on top.

Notice now Wii has gotten more third party support than the competition, albeit terrible support. Wii has been selling more than the competition because it's became a social phenomena, but slowly has been losing steam. The lack of interesting and innovative ideas from 3rd parties stopped the Wii from becoming the next PS2 and the fact that most of 3rd party games are now heading to the opposing consoles. Nintendo can't keep the Wii momentum as high as in 2007-early 2008, when they released about 20 1st party games or more World Wide. They haven't released even 12 new games since then until now. Their resources are limited and then the results become apparent. Momentum is lost. Yes, Nintendo could keep the Wii at astronomical heights by their own, but they can't do miracles, and if one of their games fails to do what was expected, we get the kind of market reaction we got in late 2008 until late 2009, Wii going down in spirals.

What you said was "Wii was outselling PS2 until 2009." Which means, well, that the Wii was outselling the PS2 until 2009. It's your fault for not being clear.

The problem is you analysis is very short sited. You never talk about customers and reading your post makes me think you thought the Game business started in 1994.

First off, Wii Fit released on December 1st in Japan, which means it only had 31 days to push hardware vs a whole nother year in 2008. So just because it was released in 2007, doesn't mean it's effect was taking place in 2007. Mario Kart and Smash Brothers were released in 2008, so hardware should have still been up in 2008 seeing as Wii Fit would carry hardware farther in 2008 and probably for a few months (which all those titles did on a worldwide scale).

Now why did handhelds jump in Japan where they didn't before. Take a look at yearly data, and you'll see the GBA was always strong in Japan relativaly. The GBA beat out the PS2 two years and they were usually close (no more then 1 million off). So the Japanese were still buying handhelds along side consoles, sometimes even more so. But why the big leap? Simple: The DS became good enough. Up until that point, the strongest handhelds was equivilant of a hardware from almost 10 years ago. But, the DS was not as strong (or stronger) then an N64. "But the N64 was pretty old then too?" Oh, but you forget, we are reaching "good enough." In all markets, but esspecially technology, the product becomes "good enough." This means that the current offering is just right for consumers. Go past this, and you'll do what is called "overshooting" where the products becomes more then what people can handel or notice. But now handhelds are getting "good enough." The 3DS will be "good enough." This power also opened the door for RPGs. RPGs could not compete with those on the consoles, but now, with stronger hardware, they are doable. Final Fantasy 3 also opened the door for this, which also goes to show how much one game matters. Now, the DS is the RPG system. (NOTE:This is all from disruption liturature)

Remember my friend, that demand may exist but may never be realized. This is why Blue Ocean Strategy exist. There are lots of markets that do not exist yet, which means there is demand for goods and services that do not exist yet. Japan may have always wanted to buy more handhelds, but couldn't yet because they didn't mean their wants.

But what about Europe. First, Europe in 2009 bought fewer Wiis, but not by much. Less then a million difference. We'll see how 2010 goes. Remember though, that Europe is mix between Japan and US. Like Japan, they are a smaller country, so they move around a lot. Thus, there is a reason to have a handheld (in the US, handhelds are very much a kid's system, although that is somewhat changing with the DS). Of course, a lot more of their land is usable, and their apartments are no where near as small as Japanese ones, so there is still a market for consoles.

And boy, you don't know your history. First, third parties always wanted to jump ship because Nintendo was very strict and wanted to take them for all they were worth. They tried going to Sega, but they didn't see the same results and were stuck with Nintendo. They always wanted out. Of couse, you miss why Sony was successful. Third parties played a major role and was a strong strategy, but a lot of it had to do with Sony themselves. Sony grew alot due to globilization and economies of scale. The PS1 was the first system to be successful in all regions. The NES was never strong in Europe due to lawsuit in the US and the SNES fought with the Genesis. Sony grew thanks to globilization. Population growths in all regions also helped. Sony also has Economies of Scale, and they can leverage factories and other media for their console. They basically could do things Nintendo could never do. Let's also not forget that Nintendo did not release a 2D Mario for the N64 or GC. Had they, the history of videogames would be a lot different (look at what NSMB did for the DS and the Wii).

Third party support on the Wii was never an issue. Nintendo has done well with crappy support and I don't think it matters if they have none. Consumers buy hardware to play software. We can all agree to that. So, why would they buy a Wii for a bad third party game. They would not. So, then why does it matter if there is bad third party support vs no third party support. The alternative is the same: they just don't buy a Wii. The Wii's situation is due to a lack of software on Nintendo's part that pushes hardware. Nintendo has only releases NSMBWii since the start of 09. All the other games were sequals or wont move systems. This may be in part to Nintendo chasing UGC and having to shuffel around software (and this may have made people more hostile to the Wii). Nintendo needs to release software, and I think Wii Relax and Zelda will do the trick.

One thing you do wrong is you never look at what consumers do. You ignore them entirely. Your analysis will never been good until you take them into account. As they are now, they are very much fish bowl views. You look only at the data and make inferences about that and don't focus on buying patterns.



I agree with trestres, not smashchu.

Smashchu your taking the argument into so many different directions while trestres is focussed on one point that you should be debating, we don't need to hear a videogame history lesson here.



All hail the KING, Andrespetmonkey

darthdevidem01 said:

I agree with trestres, not smashchu.

Smashchu your taking the argument into so many different directions while trestres is focussed on one point that you should be debating, we don't need to hear a videogame history lesson here.

Interesting that you said that, because all of my "points," we just replies to his post.

But it's not about focus, it's about understanding the industry. I don't think trestres understands the videogame industry, and that is namely as he knows nothing about the buyers. How can you say "X should do this," if you don't even understand how customers spend their money.'

Look back and you'll see it does connect. Plus, there is always a need for a history lesson as the history has gotten skewed.



what makes you think MOVE is going to be $100?

 

Move will likely be a superior controller to the wii mote with motion plus when it's all set and done, and that is what sony is promising, it can move consoles.



 

mM

Games move consoles, not controllers. A Wii Sports clone won't have the impact of Wii Sports, neither would a Wii Play or Wii Fit clone. I don't see any evidence that 3D will move any systems by itself either, although since it will probably be shoved into Gran Turismo PS3 it probably will help a bit.



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu