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FAMITSU sales (5/24 5/30) -- SMG2 in 1st!

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TheSource said:

Look at September and December 2009 for PS3. It isn't going to match those numbers barring another price cut and a huge game. PS3 had its only weeks over 100k in that four month period - being up by 40-50% now isn't a huge deal if those weeks can't be matched. I think they'll be able to match a couple of them, but probably not all of them (not that they need to since they're up so much), but I mean week one in Sept was 150k or so.


It will depend on the holiday boost PS3 gets.



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trestres said:
TheSource said:

Look at September and December 2009 for PS3. It isn't going to match those numbers barring another price cut and a huge game. PS3 had its only weeks over 100k in that four month period - being up by 40-50% now isn't a huge deal if those weeks can't be matched. I think they'll be able to match a couple of them, but probably not all of them (not that they need to since they're up so much), but I mean week one in Sept was 150k or so.


It will depend on the holiday boost PS3 gets.


There's no way PS3 sells more this year than it did last September or December, no way. Even with GT5 and FFXIV. And even if Move is a success and they come out with a HSG6 and HST2 like I mentioned. The ONLY way for them to outsell last year would be a price cut.



There might be "no way" but PS3 is making up for it now at the beginning of the year, so it will not have to sell as much then during the holidays.



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Stakes: 1 week of avatar control for each one.

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Yeah, I think PS3 has seen its best days already in Japan (so has Wii, but the decline will be slower). I don't really see a lot of system mover for PS3 besides FFIV and GT5. Two of the biggest franchises in Japan, Monster Hunter, and Dragon Quest, are now on Wii. Wii Party, Last Story, Xenoblade, Zelda, and Wii Relax should also be big system movers.

 Despite a drought of games now, Nintendo seems to have that abilty to create system sellers that are evergreen titles almost at will. Sony has the edge in 3rd party support obviously, but the popularity of many once big franchises in Japan are dwindling. This means they have to rely more on new ips, which don't fare too well in Japan, at least core ones. So I think ultimatlely, Nintendo still has the edge in Japan.



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You think that a console for which there still room for a couple of price-cuts with Japanese 3rd support that improves every year has already seen it's best days?



i think wii and ps3 are gonna sell around the same amount this year. they will jointly dominate japan. i read someone say ps3 has seen its best days. not even close yet. its still the same price as ps2 at launch. lots of room for sales explosions yet.



trestres said:

@Smaschu: Wii was outselling PS2 until 2009, you can't change history to your liking. The fact is that without support consoles are of course going to be dying. The idea that people have that Japanese only want handheld games is because developers are forcing it that way, not because people don't want consoles. Wii showed everyone unitl 2009 that consoles were really on high demand, in fact it looked like this gen, there were going to be more home consoles sold than during last gen, but developers screwed up, first and third party alike. PS2 got support all the way through the gen, Wii didn't and PS3 has barely started getting respectable support last year. PS3 is doing better than 2009 now with better support.

Japan hasn't abandoned handhelds, developers have. Consumers will buy games and consoles that are good for them. That it is handheld or not means nothing.


@Darc Requiem: It matters, because not all games were shovelware. Some devs made Wii games during its first 2 years, now no one is even trying anymore.

Are you high? The Wii has beaten the PS2 every year since 2007 (only lost in 2006 because it was out for a month). Talking about me making up history.

I don't think you actually look at sales treands or even understand why people buy stuff. Had you, you wouldn't have made that post.

First off, take a look at Wii sales for Japan again, and you'll notice it was failing yearly in 2008. 2008 had the system sales increase for everywhere else in 2008, yet Japan's went down. 2008 went up because of multiple big releases like Mario Kart Wii, Super Smash Brothers Brawl and Wii Fit. This shows that the trend is different than the other regions. Perhaps this means demand for console games have falled in Japan.

Now, let's compair sales for both the DS and the Wii side by side

Years Wii DS
1(Launch year) .96 1.39
2 3.68 4.23
3 3.02 8.40
4 2.02 7.21

Notice something. Two things. First, the DS has always done better in Japan. Even in it's early days, before it would have a lot of support, it was selling high numbers in a region we call "shrinking." Second, the Wii fell after year 2. The DS didn't fall until after year 3 (which is the norm). Also, the DS had only a 14.2% drop where as the Wii had a 18% drop (rounded up). It's a small difference, but it can tell you that demand for consoles just isn't strong.

Now, why is Japan not buying consoles? They still buy handhelds though. This is where understanding the buyer comes into play. In the US, we are very spread out. This is on of the biggest countries in the world and one of the few that is a 1st world country. Since we are spread out, and a lot of people live outside of the cities, we have to drive everywhere (there is little public transit in the suberbs). We can't play handhelds if we are driving our cars. But in Japan, everyone lives in the city. Becuase most of the recidents are in the city, and having a car is very expensive in Japan, most people use public transportation. Now, they can play a handheld while waiting for the bus or subway, and play it while they are riding to their destination. Also, in the US, we have a lot more house parties, where we invite people over. This is very common (sporting events are a good example of this). However, in Japan, they have very little usable land, so any place you get is going to be very small. It would be cramped if you have a soccer party, and probably so if you were playing the Wii (which needs more space to play so you aren't hitting each other). In thise sense, consoles are not as practical.

The reason now for the PS3 being over (or close) to the Wii is for two reasons. First, the Wii may have hit a saturation point at it's current software line-up. Not many people are going to want a Wii if their places of living are too small to play multiplayer games. The PS3 is likely competing with the Wii because of the price cut, but also because I assume that most console buyers in Japan are more dedicated gamers. So those people who buy console are higher tier users, and are buying higher teir system, the PS3.

The other thing you over examplify is "If you build it, they will come." Third party support was importaint during the PS1 and PS2 days, but not though most of gaming history. It was Sony's strategy, because if they take all the third parties, then they;d have most of the games, and more people will buy Sony systems. Of course, this strategy wont work if support is split or is on the wrong system. The true key to selling hardware, is key software, and you can see this very often.

  • Super Mario Bros. made the NES
  • People bought SNES for Mario World
  • Sega was put on the map by Sonic the Hedgehog. They almost beat the SNES until
  • Donkey Kong Country. This game saved the SNES. Nintendo bought Rare and they got to work on two more games
  • Halo 2 turned 2004 into the XBox's best year, despite sales were failing up to that point
  • The DS was losing in Japan to the PSP until New Super Mario Bros Wii came out. The also surged in America
  • Wii Sports made the Wii
  • Also, Nintendo saw huges sales in 2008 thanks to Mario Kart, Smash Bros and Wii Fit

(There may be some on the PS1 and 2, like the Final Fantasy games, but I don't have charts to find out). As you can see, it takes only one software title to make a huge differences. Without DKC, the Genesis may have beaten out the SNES. The NES would have been no where without Mario Bros. And New Super Mario Bros set the DS on fire. So it is not the whole lot of games that make the difference, but those key games. People buy software for hardware, and they will usually buy it if there is one software title they have to have.



Metallicube said:
trestres said:
Metallicube said:
trestres said:
Metallicube said:

This is why I was growing concerned for the Wii in Japan, because I didn't expect Galaxy 2 to move any Wiis there, and sure enough, it didn't. The game might move consoles a bit in the West, but not in Japan, where 2D Mario vastly outpaces 3D Mario in terms of popularity.

The remedy for Wii's stagnation in Japan is Wii Party, and on a larger scale, Wii Relax. Those are the types of games that move systems there, games that try new things and draw in new crowds. Nintendo needs to keep releasing more games like Wii Fit in Japan that push the boundaries of the very definition of a game, in addition to more motion plus games that show Nintendo put some work into them.

Of course, there will be some other games, like the Dragon Quest games, Monster Hunters, and established Nintendo franchises like Pikmin, Star Fox, Kirby, etc, that may move a few units there as well. But to TRULY keep the momentum, Nintendo needs to keep creating not only new games, but entirely new GENRES.

Nintendo can only do so much on their own. Without the help of third parties that will be impossible, because they will have to go through long droughts and momentum is then lost and people just moves on to the consoles where the games are, like it happened after 2008.

A few things though.. For one, it's not like Wii's 3rd party support is non exsitent in Japan. There are some decent titles like 2 Dragon Quest games, Last Story, Xenoblade, Line Attack Heroes, etc., and Red Steel 2 was just released, though with poor sales.. 

But also, it's not like PS3 has an incredible amount of 3rd party games being released their either. The amount of games coming out, last I checked, were barely more than Wii's. And of course, Xbox 360 is pretty much irrelivant in Japan.

It's not an issue of the Wii specifically, and its 3rd party support. It's more a matter of console gaming in general there, which has taken a backseat to portables and continues to decline.

Of course more 3rd party support couldn't hurt, but I honestly don't think Nintendo needs them to keep the Wii going in Japan. They got through it fine during the N64 days, and add this to the fact that Japan is a shrinking market, Nintendo could probably string along the Wii over there solely on 1st and 2nd party titles if they wanted. 3rd parties would just release more shovelware anyway, so best it's left off the console. 

Nintendo also has plenty of developement studios to keep the games coming, it's not like they have a 10 person team to pump out all their games..


Xenoblade, The Last Story and Line Attack Heroes are 1st party. Line Attack Heros doesn't even have a date there and I really doubt it will sell more than 50k judging by the sales of other smaller 1st party games.

PS3 does really have more games than the Wii, like 3 times more upcoming third party games than the Wii, I can PM you or post in your wall the list which BTW I update on a daily basis.

Like I said before, home consoles declined because of bad decisions made by the devs, not because users don't care for them anymore. Wii was a huge success during it's first 2 years, as was PS2 during all its life, but Wii's momentum was lost because devs ignored it for the most part and some are even labeling it as a dead console.

If Nintendo didn't need 3rd party support Wii sales would have never declined, but we know that Nintendo aren't perfect and 2 badly planned releases killed the whole momentum (AC:CF and Wii Music) there was no recovery after that. Had the Wii had strong 3rd party support they would have managed to get through relatively well, but reality is it was a complete disaster.

Nintendo has many tams, true, but they also have 2 (soon 3) consoles to develop for, and they even admitted they managed their resources badly and delayed a lot of games. Again, Nintendo isn't perfect, so one mistake they make and it all goes bad, simply because they are the only ones keeping the Wii alive.

Those are at least 2nd party titles aren't they? Nintendo certainly isn't developing them themselves, only publishing them..

Well whatever, if the Wii dies in Japan then I guess the fault lies with the 3rd parties, not Nintendo. Not much they can do about that then. When every other developer out there is going against one, you tend to be outnumbered. Maybe Nintendo will just have to ride out the West for the rest of the Wii's life (which is still going quite strong), and hopefully 3rd parties will finally get their heads out of their asses and develop for Nintendo's next home console.  

But really, one more NSMB (or a game of equal impact) and the Wii is on fire there again, so I really don't think 3rd party support is as important for Nintendo in Japan as you make it seem.

Xenoblade is first party. Nintendo own Monolithsoft. The Last Story is second party it's a Mistwalker title. I'm not sure about LIne Attack Heroes.



Smashchu2 said:
trestres said:

@Smaschu: Wii was outselling PS2 until 2009, you can't change history to your liking. The fact is that without support consoles are of course going to be dying. The idea that people have that Japanese only want handheld games is because developers are forcing it that way, not because people don't want consoles. Wii showed everyone unitl 2009 that consoles were really on high demand, in fact it looked like this gen, there were going to be more home consoles sold than during last gen, but developers screwed up, first and third party alike. PS2 got support all the way through the gen, Wii didn't and PS3 has barely started getting respectable support last year. PS3 is doing better than 2009 now with better support.

Japan hasn't abandoned handhelds, developers have. Consumers will buy games and consoles that are good for them. That it is handheld or not means nothing.


@Darc Requiem: It matters, because not all games were shovelware. Some devs made Wii games during its first 2 years, now no one is even trying anymore.

Are you high? The Wii has beaten the PS2 every year since 2007 (only lost in 2006 because it was out for a month). Talking about me making up history.

I don't think you actually look at sales treands or even understand why people buy stuff. Had you, you wouldn't have made that post.

First off, take a look at Wii sales for Japan again, and you'll notice it was failing yearly in 2008. 2008 had the system sales increase for everywhere else in 2008, yet Japan's went down. 2008 went up because of multiple big releases like Mario Kart Wii, Super Smash Brothers Brawl and Wii Fit. This shows that the trend is different than the other regions. Perhaps this means demand for console games has falled in Japan.

Now, let's compair sales for both the DS and the Wii side by side

Years Wii DS
1(Launch year) .96 1.39
2 3.68 4.23
3 3.02 8.40
4 2.02 7.21

Notice something. Two things. First, the DS has always done better in Japan. Even in it's early days, before it would have a lot of support, it was selling high numbers in a region we call "shrinking." Second, the Wii fell after year 2. The DS didn't fall until after year 3 (which is the norm). Also, the DS had only a 14.2% drop where as the Wii had a 18% drop (rounded up). It's a small difference, but it can tell you that demand for consoles just isn't strong.

Now, why is Japan not buying consoles? They still buy handhelds though. This is where understanding the buyer comes into play. In the US, we are very spread out. This is on of the biggest countries in the world and one of the few that is a 1st world country. Since we are spread out, and a lot of people live outside of the cities, we have to drive everywhere (there is little public transit in the suberbs). We can't play handhelds if we are driving our cars. But in Japan, everyone lives in the city. Becuase most of the recidents are in the city, and having a car is very expensive in Japan, most people use public transportation. Now, they can play a handheld while waiting for the bus or subway, and play it while they are riding to their destination. Also, in the US, we have a lot more house parties, where we invite people over. This is very common (sporting events are a good example of this). However, in Japan, they have very little usable land, so any place you get is going to be very small. It would be cramped if you have a soccer party, and probably so if you were playing the Wii (which needs more space to play so you aren't hitting each other). In thise sense, consoles are not as practical.

The reason now for the PS3 being over (or close) to the Wii is for two reasons. First, the Wii may have hit a saturation point at it's current software line-up. Not many people are going to want a Wii if their places of living are too small to play multiplayer games. The PS3 is likely competing with the Wii because of the price cut, but also because I assume that most console buyers in Japan are more dedicated gamers. So those people who buy console are higher tier users, and are buying higher teir system, the PS3.

The other thing you over examplify is "If you build it, they will come." Third party support was importaint during the PS1 and PS2 days, but not though most of gaming history. It was Sony's strategy, because if they take all the third parties, then they;d have most of the games, and more people will buy Sony systems. Of course, this strategy wont work if support is split or is on the wrong system. The true key to selling hardware, is key software, and you can see this very often.

  • Super Mario Bros. made the NES
  • People bought SNES for Mario World
  • Sega was put on the map by Sonic the Hedgehog. They almost beat the SNES until
  • Donkey Kong Country. This game saved the SNES. Nintendo bought Rare and they got to work on two more games
  • Halo 2 turned 2004 into the XBox's best year, despite sales were failing up to that point
  • The DS was losing in Japan to the PSP until New Super Mario Bros Wii came out. The also surged in America
  • Wii Sports made the Wii
  • Also, Nintendo saw huges sales in 2008 thanks to Mario Kart, Smash Bros and Wii Fit

(There may be some on the PS1 and 2, like the Final Fantasy games, but I don't have charts to find out). As you can see, it takes only one software title to make a huge differences. Without DKC, the Genesis may have beaten out the SNES. The NES would have been no where without Mario Bros. And New Super Mario Bros set the DS on fire. So it is not the whole lot of games that make the difference, but those key games. People buy software for hardware, and they will usually buy it if there is one software title they have to have.

I meant in the same timeframe since launch. I know you understood my point, but since you had no way to make a counter argument, you pretended I was wrong. Now that whole paragraph is irrelevant and you ended up like a dishonest person.

Also, notice that Japan got Wii Fit in 2007, so the effect didn't last as long as in the West which got it in mid 2008. You have clearly no idea of release dates in Japan and therefore your argument about Wii losing steam magically in Japan compared to the West is completely wrong.

Then your reasons as for why home consoles are big in the USA and not in Japan are terrible. Japan always had the same amount of terrain available to build houses on, that didn't affect the previous 4 gens where there were also handhelds available and where home consoles sold impressive numbers. Japan has been the same country in terms of occupied space since 1980 and onwards, your reasons about them not having space are horrendous honestly. The USA is buying the same amount as always, don't know where you get the idea otherwise.

Still going by your reasoning, Europe also hates consoles then I assume?

Lastly, saying third party games don't count is just... I have no words. You think PS1 and PS2 won all magically by themselves? The droves of games coming out for them were astounding, something never seen before in the previous gens. Without them Sony would have never been able to beat Nintendo, which actually didn't need 3rd party support in the SNES and NES eras as much as Sony did, because it was almost like a monopoly back then. Nintendo controlled third parties and their consoles were the ones selling, so 3rd parties had to accept the way Nintendo managed the whole VG market. Had Sony not received all that 3rd party support, then history would have repeated itself again with Nintendo on top.

Notice now Wii has gotten more third party support than the competition, albeit terrible support. Wii has been selling more than the competition because it's became a social phenomena, but slowly has been losing steam. The lack of interesting and innovative ideas from 3rd parties stopped the Wii from becoming the next PS2 and the fact that most of 3rd party games are now heading to the opposing consoles. Nintendo can't keep the Wii momentum as high as in 2007-early 2008, when they released about 20 1st party games or more World Wide. They haven't released even 12 new games since then until now. Their resources are limited and then the results become apparent. Momentum is lost. Yes, Nintendo could keep the Wii at astronomical heights by their own, but they can't do miracles, and if one of their games fails to do what was expected, we get the kind of market reaction we got in late 2008 until late 2009, Wii going down in spirals.



Proud poster of the 10000th reply at the Official Smash Bros Update Thread.

tag - "I wouldn't trust gamespot, even if it was a live comparison."

Bets with Conegamer:

Pandora's Tower will have an opening week of less than 37k in Japan. (Won!)
Pandora's Tower will sell less than 100k lifetime in Japan.
Stakes: 1 week of avatar control for each one.

Fullfilled Prophecies