I would think it would have a shot...
What will be the big selling PS3 exclusives in Americas? Just God of War 3 and Gran Turismo 5. I think both will sell in the 1-1.5 million range. Other than that you have Heavy Rain, 3D dot Heroes, Modnation Racers, MAG, and Socom Move. I think those all sell maybe 300k.
If you add it all up Reach probably needs to sell 5-6 million to beat every PS3 exclusive. I think that's possible. Halo 3 did that. Reach should do more. It will have 4 months to sell also.
Am I missing something or way off base?
I'm assuming Resistance 3 will not be announced for this fall, and that The Last Guardian wont make it either. Especially the latter prediction seems very safe.
BTW I'm not really counting Move games in this though, since none have been announced and it's too much of a wildcard. Just hardcore titles. Socom counts though.
For the record, I feel its too early for this as we don't know all of the PS3 exclusives that will be released in the Americas for the rest of the year. E3 may have some surprises and some games might even get delayed into next year.
Also, fallen, you know this is a flame bait thread to put on THESE of all forums.
That being said, after playing (and thoroughly enjoying) the Halo Reach Beta, I'm very confident that the game will be big. I mean HUGE big. Remember how much Halo 3 sold when it launched (2.8 mil)? Well that was 2007 and the 360 user base was only some 12 million worldwide. Well by Reach's release, it'll be over 40 million. So it's not unreasonable to assume it will LAUNCH at numbers bigger than ODST (1.6 mil) and similar to MW2 (3.2 mil). And throughout the rest of the year (4 ½ months), it'll continue to add to that significantly during the holiday months. 6-7 million is definitely possible and maybe even low.
As for GT5, if we look at precedent, it will not sell anywhere near those numbers in the Americas. In fact, GT4 in its lifetime didn't even sell 3 million and GT5P sold just barely over 1 million. A holiday release will help boost sales for such a big name series, though, but not enough to make it significant. Racing games do not sell huge in the Americas, even ones called GT.
So, to answer your question, will it? Who knows, but its possible. Doesn't say much in the bigger picture, though.