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Can Reach outsell every PS3 exclusive combined in the Americas in 2010?

Forums - Sales Discussion - Can Reach outsell every PS3 exclusive combined in the Americas in 2010?

"What will be the big selling PS3 exclusives in Americas? Just God of War 3 and Gran Turismo 5. I think both will sell in the 1-1.5 million range. "

As others have pointed out, GoW3 is already on 1.5 million in the Americas. GT5 will sell more than 1 million week 1 Americas only, and should break 1.5 million some time during week 1, 2 or 3



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I really don't think the creator of the topic has looked at the charts... he expects Heavy Rain to sell 300k when it has already sold 500k+ LOL! same goes for God of War 3

There's just no way in hell Halo: Reach will achieve this.



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With whats announced it has a chance, but I think Christmas will get one more shooter that could do 1.5m+ like Uncharted 2 last year. Probably Resistance 3.

No chance with all the move stuff either, as that'll amount to a decent number of exclusives.



Not going to happen. I'm not even sure if Reach will be able to hit 6M in that time frame. Halo 3 is almost 8M but a lot of that was 3 years crawl at various discounted price points/classic edition and bundles.



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God of War 3 1.5
Heavy rain 0.54
MAG 0.50
White Knight Chronicles 0.18
Yakuza 3 0.10
MLB 2010: The Show 0.41
Last Rebellion - .02
3D Dot Game Heroes - .05

3.30 million games have been sold this year between those exclusives. This week, a combination of those titles sold over 85k (I rounded down to the nearest thousandth so it's more likely 86-87k). There's 31 weeks left of the "year" on VGChartz. If for the rest of the year, between those titles, they manage to do about half of the 85k (which is 42.5k). That's another 1.275 million games sold. So totaling the titles already released, Halo Reach will have a little less than 4 months to sell over 4.575 million copies (piece of cake right?).

That should be easy for it to beat those games. But also keep in mind, there are a lot of exclusives coming out this year. I'd have personally waited for after E3 to even mention this opinion because there is a chance Sony have a few tricks up their sleeve. :)



i think halo reach has a chance LOL.
but like 20% chance since Gran Turismo 5 is a major factor for the PS3 exclusives.
i wanna bet that Gran Turismo 5 is gonna sell 2 million FW in europe ALONE.
since Sony and Gran Turismo is beloved over there.



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It has a shot but you can't forget :

LBP2
Resistance 3
GT5

Also, COD : Black Ops may eat into some of Halo's sales.



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fallen said:

I would think it would have a shot...

What will be the big selling PS3 exclusives in Americas? Just God of War 3 and Gran Turismo 5. I think both will sell in the 1-1.5 million range. Other than that you have Heavy Rain, 3D dot Heroes, Modnation Racers, MAG, and Socom Move. I think those all sell maybe 300k.

 

If you add it all up Reach probably needs to sell 5-6 million to beat every PS3 exclusive. I think that's possible. Halo 3 did that. Reach should do more. It will have 4 months to sell also.

Am I missing something or way off base?

I'm assuming Resistance 3 will not be announced for this fall, and that The Last Guardian wont make it either. Especially the latter prediction seems very safe.

BTW I'm not really counting Move games in this though, since none have been announced and it's too much of a wildcard. Just hardcore titles. Socom counts though.

For the record, I feel its too early for this as we don't know all of the PS3 exclusives that will be released in the Americas for the rest of the year.  E3 may have some surprises and some games might even get delayed into next year.

Also, fallen, you know this is a flame bait thread to put on THESE of all forums.

That being said, after playing (and thoroughly enjoying) the Halo Reach Beta, I'm very confident that the game will be big.  I mean HUGE big.  Remember how much Halo 3 sold when it launched (2.8 mil)?  Well that was 2007 and the 360 user base was only some 12 million worldwide.  Well by Reach's release, it'll be over 40 million.  So it's not unreasonable to assume it will LAUNCH at numbers bigger than ODST (1.6 mil) and similar to MW2 (3.2 mil).  And throughout the rest of the year (4 ½ months), it'll continue to add to that significantly during the holiday months.  6-7 million is definitely possible and maybe even low.

As for GT5, if we look at precedent, it will not sell anywhere near those numbers in the Americas.  In fact, GT4 in its lifetime didn't even sell 3 million and GT5P sold just barely over 1 million.  A holiday release will help boost sales for such a big name series, though, but not enough to make it significant.  Racing games do not sell huge in the Americas, even ones called GT. 

So, to answer your question, will it?  Who knows, but its possible.  Doesn't say much in the bigger picture, though.