I think it is certainly possible that the PS3 can come in 2nd, and I think this holiday (and therefore E3 reveals) will be the main determiniation.

I think if Microsoft announces a slim and price cut for this year, the 360 will stay ahead until their next console releases.

I think if they announce the slim and price cut, and Natal really takes off then they will probably stay permanently.

If Microsoft is not aggressive this holiday and makes up for some of the gap PS3 has eaten up since the slim, the PS3 will catch the 360 before Microsoft's next console release.

Some people seem to expet PS3 to sell almost as well as PS2 did after PS3 released. I don't think that will happen, but I do think it will do much better than the GC or Xbox did after their their succesors launched.

Which statement do you want a reference for? I made many statements.

COD has definatly contributed to console sales in at least North America in the same way PES, and FIFA sales boast console sales in Europe and Asia.  Especially Call of Duty 2, that example alone (old as it may be), completly falsifies your statement. Call of Duty is largly popular in North America, where the 360 dominate the PS3 1.75 to 1. Of course it's going to boast 360 sales.

Halo: Reach is going to be the 4th Halo on the 360, but also the biggest, and if you count Halo Wars as a Halo game, even thought it's only a FPS, you have to count GT5 Prologue because that's all Sony gamers have had to live on while waiting on GT5.

As for which brand is bigger, that's arguable. Gran Turismo has sold most of it's games over the 10 million sales mark, however, it sold over 10 million games on system with over 100 million units. PS3 is not selling anywhere nearly as well as PS1 and PS2 did, what makes you think it will sell that spectacularly? Halo on the other hand has sold, 5 and 8 million units on a system with only 24 million sales, and 11 million units on a system with 40 million sales. In my opinion, Halo: Reach will sell 11-15 million units in the long run, more then any other Halo game because this Halo will be sold onto a console with more sales then ever before. Under the same logic, I beleive GT5 will sell 6-8 milion units total, everyone that bought Prologue, some new PS3 owners, and the few people who didn't buy GT5: Prologue in anticipation of GT5.

And GT:5 Prologue is no a DEMO, it's more like a large scale BETA.

As for Michael Patchner being wrong 75% of the time, can you veryfy this reference? To my accounts his predictions are very accurate, otherwise webush would have fired him. I only know about his Wii HD prediction being wrong, and he underpredicted Boarderlands.

I'm so full of it? Please don't be insulting, I am making a very logical and valid arguement.

I never said "Barely 30,000", I said roughly 30,000 a week. Don't put words into my mouth, there is a difference. I have been keeping track of PS3 vs 360 sales on a weekly basis since at least August 2009. Since January I have noticed the PS3 has been leading in sales over the 360 between 20,000 to 50,000 units a week. Depending heavily on game releases.

To the end of May, PS3 has sold 4 million units worldwide, 360 has sold 3 million units worldwide (according to VGChartz YTD's, as of now). That is a period of 5 months to account for a 1 million sales difference. Thats 22 weeks roughly, and 1 million divided by 22 is 45,000. More then 30,000, however you have to account the strong Spring lineup PS3 had over the 360, specifically God of War 3. Okay 30,000 is a bit off, 40,000 is a more reasonable estimate, but I did say roughly, and I in all honesty feel that this difference will diminish during fall 2010.

On Gametrailers (and I think in a news article somewhere on GT, but also from Michael Patchner), Michael Patchner stated that the new model PS3's give Sony a $30 profit at the $300 price margin. Thats 10%, which is small, Nintendo is probably making over $100 per console, and 360 is somewhere inbetween. Microsoft can afford another price drop, and still make profit on each system sold. It may only be $5 profit, or 1 penny, but still. If Sony made a price cut, they would lose money per console, just as they have been doing almost during the entire PS3 lifetime.

As for Sony's Prenium PSN service, Microsoft is also likely to release a Platnium service pack for XBL, and how is this relevant to a consoles sales??

Also, Every system gets most of it's sales at the $199 price point. Oh man, SHOW ME WHERE YOU FOUND THIS OUT!! Michael Patchner stated that Microsoft sells about 80% of it's units at the medium range price point ($299), and that only about 10% buy the $199 arcade model, and 10% buyt the $399 Elite model. If most consoles get their sales at the $199 point, then this shouldn't be happening! However it is, so...your statement is false.

I'm not trying to insilt you, but you seem to be making up your arguements. PS3 is a great console, I have one, and a 360. I just don't think the PS3 will become number 2 in sales. I beleive this because Microsoft is a corperate demon. They will not allow PS3's console to outsell the 360, even if it means giving away 360 consoles. Microsoft has the money to do this, and it is crutial for their system to remain in position number 2 to keep up their reputation for the next generation of consoles.

MGS4 on 360 was a rumor created in forums, a 360 Slim is a media originated rumor, and unlike the MGS4-360 rumor, it has evidence to back it up. Please don't compare the two, as they have a completly different background. You can however compare the 360 Slim rumour to the FFXIII and FFXIII Versus being multi console rumors as those were originated in the media, and hang on...FFXIII is on 360 too right??

Microsoft will definatly do some sort of price cut, and Natal package. Like I said they are a corporate demon. They will do anything to stay ontop, and they have room for a price cut. I feel they will, after all they are trying to attract Wii gamers to the Natal.

As for Japan/Europe >>>> Americas, first of all 23 million/40 million 360's are sold in Americas, so for 360, that is not the case. Also in many European, and asian countries, 360 outsells the PS3. Countries like Britain and Korea (On VgChartz, just compare hardware total and look on the right). Now in Japan, PS3 has sold 5.2 million units, and 360 has sold 1.3 million, where DS is over 30 million. Japan is a dominatly handheld market, it doesn't really affect PS3/360 sales much.

So for PS3, Europe > Americas > Japan, but for 360 Americas > Europe and Japan combined. The important thing is total sales, not just regional. In europe, both consoles have sold roughly the same number of total units, and if Microsoft blows everyone away this fall (which I think they will), that could change.

Another point PS3/360 regional totals - Japan is 6.5 million, Europe is 31.5 million, Americas is 37.2 million. Europe Japan is 38 million, just above the americas total. I think Microsoft holding American popularity, especially at a ratio of 1.75 to 1 is a very important factor. With the Natal, price cut, and selection of great games comming out, I think Microsoft will pull itself out of this slump.

It may not, but I have given numerous valid arguements supporting my claim, your just bashing me because my points oppose your feelings.