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Forums - Sales Discussion - Does anyone think PS3 can realistically get to second place?

jarrod on 27 May 2010
Reasonable said:
jarrod said:
makingmusic476 said:
If those Natal prices are true and the new baseline price of a 360 will be $299 this holiday (assuming all 360s will come with Natal), Microsoft will have handed Sony second place imo.

But that's a big if. The rumored pricing makes no sense to me.

I have to agree with that, the rumored Natal pricepoints are nonsensical.  As is the fact that 360's cost of entry hasn't changed since 2008.  I'm starting to think Microsoft is purely putting profitability ahead of marketshare now, since their main rival and reason for even entering the market (Sony) is in such a diminished position.

TBH I'm starting to think that way.  I know a lot of 360 fans are sure MS will invest and do whatever it takes to stay in second place, make Natal easily affordable, etc.  but I wonder if that's really their focus now.

MS are guaranteed a much better LTD on 360 than Xbox, plus they've gained great traction in US and UK plus made decent inroads in Europe.

Live is considered generally the Gold standard for online and they've done very well with SW.

However, since they first started investing in Xbox they've spent a fortune to now sit in a profitable position (maybe not total lifetime of their Xbox business but on a recent quarterly basis) and with Sony having tripped themselves up and Wii slowing YOY I wonder whether they're going to focus more on slowly growing the brand - with Natal core to that - while remaining profitable knowing that, even if they slip to third in the end, they're in a great position for the launch of their next console and by any measure compared to the Xbox the 360 has been a huge success.

With first place long gone to the Wii whether the Wii does dip slowly from now on, I wonder if they'll really decide to drop prices like crazy to remain in second place rather than play it careful and steady now they're firmly established in the marketplace.

Of course, they might feel coming third in the end would tarnish their efforts with 360, but I'm beginning to doubt that.  By the time PS3 passses 360 I don't think anyone's going to be painting it as a big loss for MS, rather more of a victory in terms of how well they held of the supposed easy winner and how much they grew their marketshare and how they saw so many franchises hit their ecosphere.

Yeah, I think you're pretty dead on with all your points.  I also suspect the recent talk of a major management shake up in the E&D division too might be reflective of this sort of shift in ideology from market building to money making with the Xbox line.  And actually, 360's doing well enough to where it actually could be profitable overall for the platform by the time it's cycle ends (which probably won't be the case for PS3, which could be another PR victory angle for MS).  Before I was sure we'd see a $149 Arcade slim and $99 Natal this year, but more and more I'm really doubting that's the case.

And if MS doesn't drop, I doubt Sony or Nintendo will either... 5 years in and the cheapest console is still $199. :/



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Theo on 27 May 2010

I think the PS3 will get to 50 million first, with all the credit going to GT5.



supercat on 27 May 2010

2nd place looks more and more likely every month.

This month, we've heard more:

-substantiated rumors on the PSP2 which is going to kill in the marketplace
-Sony's upcoming google TV service
- more about PSN enhancements

So, Sony is about to have the best network and a better handheld. If people are going to spend $400 for a phone, why not have games that come wtih it is sony's logic and I think that this will be the best thing since sliced bread. Blu-ray should get cheaper soon as well, $50 players are coming within a year.



jarrod on 27 May 2010
supercat said:
-substantiated rumors on the PSP2 which is going to kill in the marketplace

lol.  Hope springs eternal.



supercat on 27 May 2010
jarrod said:
supercat said:
-substantiated rumors on the PSP2 which is going to kill in the marketplace

lol.  Hope springs eternal.


Meh.  The big advantage to a phone with decent CPU like a handheld is that adding games onto it will cost very little more well besides adding a few buttons or whatever, and given the high graphic requirements of games, it will likely be a HD phone as well.    This is going to be a great phone, and both sony ericcson and the games division of sony will benefit because they are working together.



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Smashchu2 on 27 May 2010
theprof00 said:
Smashchu2 said:
theprof00 said:
Smashchu2 said:

By the numbers, PS3 was behind the 360 by 5 million units as of last week (using these numbers too becuase they are easier :P). Here is the break down of how many more they would have to sell a week to beat the 360.

Years # sold per week (over 360 sales)
1 96,153.87
2 48,076.92
3 32,051.28
4 24,038.46
5

19,230.76

As you can see, it would have to sell a lot more then it usually does to pull these. It's doable I guess, but the system are usually so close that it would take 3-5 years to do this not including if the 360 beats the PS3 on any week. This is all based on the assumption that PS3 outsells the 360 every week for x number of years.

not counting the 1.3M ps3 outsold 360 last xmas.

were ps3 to do the same this year, which it is trending towards,

it would take

1 year : 66k per week

2 year : 33k per week

3 year : 22k per week

 

The most sony can ask for is a +2M gap close this christmas, taking the lead by xmas 2011, during which they will have both reached 60M or whatever.

 

Last year, the system has a good price drop and a new model. I doubt it will be the same as this year, esspecially as we are seeing decling sales. Where did you get those numbers though?

We are seeing a decline in both consoles sales, but 360 is dropping faster to the point where, despite the drop from last years xmas, it will still be that gap. Additionally, Sony increased its projections to 15M, whereas 360s was around 10M + extra three months IIRC.

I used the last ten weeks of sales to determine the gap.

The numbers you gave are incorrect. If it sells 66k over the 360 for a year, then it would be at 3,432,000. If you were to include the Christmas season (which we'll say is 6 weeks out of the year) , then it would need to sell 1,964,000 at Chrismas(5,000,000-3,036,000). I think your numbers are a little low.

Two assumptions people are making that I think are incorrect

  • That the PS3 will sell with the same numbers or higher next Christmas. Last Christmas, the system had a price cut and a new model. Sales should have been up. It is most likely going to go down.
  • GT5 will be a system seller. As far as I have seen, there have been no system sellers on the PS3 (there was a study posted here on VGChartz about it, check out the news section). It's doubtful this game will boost hardware sales, or at least not the numbers some people are saying.


jarrod on 27 May 2010
supercat said:
jarrod said:
supercat said:
-substantiated rumors on the PSP2 which is going to kill in the marketplace

lol.  Hope springs eternal.


Meh.  The big advantage to a phone with decent CPU like a handheld is that adding games onto it will cost very little more well besides adding a few buttons or whatever, and given the high graphic requirements of games, it will likely be a HD phone as well.    This is going to be a great phone, and both sony ericcson and the games division of sony will benefit because they are working together.

The big stumbling block is that Sony's already burned a lot of industry goodwill on PSP, which didn't work out so well for most, and the Go especially has tarnished the notion of DD-only content delivery in a PlayStation handheld.  Sony's had lofty goals and great design this generation, but they invariably end up fumbling the execution in some respect.  And I don't really see adding Ericcson to the mix doing much more than further confusing things.  PSP2/phone's future is very much an uncertain prospect.



joeorc on 27 May 2010
supercat said:
jarrod said:
supercat said:
-substantiated rumors on the PSP2 which is going to kill in the marketplace

lol.  Hope springs eternal.


Meh.  The big advantage to a phone with decent CPU like a handheld is that adding games onto it will cost very little more well besides adding a few buttons or whatever, and given the high graphic requirements of games, it will likely be a HD phone as well.    This is going to be a great phone, and both sony ericcson and the games division of sony will benefit because they are working together.

yea the CEO of sony ericcson said a playstation phone was being made .

I think Sony see's now is as good a time to release one as any. I think it's more likely that is what they are going to do than release yet another PSP. after the PSPGo's price point have been a slow start for sale's for the PSPGo and Nintendo and Now Apple also taking in pretty good sale's a Dedicated PSP device may instead be a Smart phone with PSP function's added to the phone going forward for Sony.

Many Smartphone's in the Market can atleast compete in that space at one time than in the dedicated handheld device market.An while they can compete in that market and you can at least carve out a nice chunk of the market for yourself esp. if your phone's main OS happen's to be the Android OS.

Not only that App's from android OS work but add in the Playstation Portable App's on the same phone. Android game's+playstation game's is pretty cool for a portable handheld game machine In my opinion.

 



I AM BOLO

100% lover "nothing else matter's" after that...

ps:

Proud psOne/2/3/p owner.  I survived Aplcalyps3 and all I got was this lousy Signature.

Snake612 on 27 May 2010

It really depends on where the hardware sales are compared to 360's hardware sales.



TO GOD BE THE GLORY

Reasonable on 27 May 2010
Snake612 said:
It really depends on where the hardware sales are compared to 360's hardware sales.

I admire your caution!



Try to be reasonable... its easier than you think...