From a cold technological point of view perhaps, but actually Wii will start showing its age and lower computing and graphics power when the majority of households will have HDTVs and competitors will offer motion control on the vast majority of their SKUs: only then people still having to decide which console to buy will be able to notice more detailed graphics on competitors with Wii not having anymore the exclusivity on one of its stronger selling points (but having a SW library even wider than now, so Wii should thrive for quite a long time).

Everything that's come out of Iwata's mouth regarding the next console has said that it's not coming anytime soon. Fact of the matter is that Nintendo is in a lucrative position with the Wii, and I'm pretty sure Iwata took into account competitors scrambling to jumpstart the next gen. Most of the reasons Nintendo took a beating had little to do with launch time. Besides, if Sony were to rush out a PS4 right now, it would hurt them more than it would hurt Nintendo. 

I'm not talking about anytime soon. I'm talking about when the interrest for current-gen consoles starts to fade. Like late 2011 or 2012.

I still think a Wii successor launched before the competitiors could be a winning move. But then some other factors would have to be taken into the equation as well, like what the new system is offering.

looks like sony part two to me. I don't think nintendo would want to support two home consoles and three different types of handhelds. its just not them. but i do haft to say if there goal is to beat ps2 then they will haft to continue to support the wii. and none like sony. i don't think nintendo will give up there cash cow so easly.

lets look a little further into the future.

2011 sales predictions

Wii 116m

ps3 108 to 120m

360 80 to110m

80 million PS3s to sell in the next 18 months, against 35m Wiis?

Brave man, with that prediction.

The ps3 has to sell around 1.5 million every week to get to that number in 2011.

This number is a bold prediction isn't it?

Why would Nintendo announce and probably release the 3DS this year when the DS is still doing incredibly well (better than the Wii right now)? I don't think everyone in here have Nintendo figured out as well as they think.
I don't either, of course, but its worth to reflect upon. If anything, the recent 3DS coverage shows that Nintendo are not above launching a new console while the current one(s) is still in a favorable position, the DS is the most successful console in history after all. The DS is on safer ground than the Wii in a few ways with its higher installed base, the massive market share and incredible 3rd party support and still blazing sales but is due for replacing (seemingly, at least according to Nintendo themselves) and the implementation of 3D shows that Nintendo is not above following trends and development either, further strengthening my belief that they will not be slow to release their next console if only for the simple reason they don't want to be left behind (we saw how much Sony's delays cost them in the end teamed with the price of course). The PS2 was doing superbly, better than any other home console in history but that didn't stop Sony from developing and planning to launch their next console at the same time as the others. People in here love looking at the past and impose it on the current generation for beneficial purposes (in fact, the PS2 is often used to demonstrate the Wii's success) but the past also shows that the market leader is not above launching at the same time as others. The notion that Nintendo will launch first is arguably silly, there's not much supporting such a claim but as mentioned above; the 3DS comes at a time where the DS is still reigning supreme (a lot more so than the Wii ever has and ever will) and there's still no good word on a PSP2 (yes, the PSP launched later, we all know that but that's not the point) as of yet. There is also the point that developers would not want to be stuck making games for a console that is effectively two generations behind the current hardware standards, which will surely force Nintendo's hand somewhat given their less than optimal relations with 3rd parties on their home consoles.

Yes, there are those who think that Wii sales will suddenly drop drastically but there are even more people who seem to resent the notion that Nintendo won't do exactly what they want them to and think they'll do; keep the Wii alive a lot longer than its competitors.

Personally, I don't think Nintendo will launch their next console before the others but I don't think they'll launch it later either and I remain sure that this generation will be much shorter than people expect (a lot of folks see this gen lasting ten years, I do not, 6-7 at the most).

Also I think they will be first because Sony and MS won't release a new system soon. They said that this generation will last longer(that's what everybody says :P) I predict a new system in 2012. In november of course

ya this is right on the ball, pretty much. if ppl think the wii lead on the hd twins is big now, next gen will be even bigger if nintendo plays their cards right ^^.

And as others said, the release of Wii2 doesn't mean the end of Wii, it should still have some strong legs and keep some momentum into next gen.

And you are definitely right, it would be illogical for the by-far best seller of this gen to come out with the new product first, but a new console + the old cheap console will kill wtv late momentum sony would hope to gain w/ a cheap 150-200$ console. Plus all the other stuff everyone else already spewed out... lol

Only way I see them not being first is if natal flops (up to now, I see no reason for why it'll be a success) and MS panics and prematurely lights the fuse on their next console. more buggy hardware. woot woot. jk lol. mr.christie, you make good cookies!!