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How long does each console have left on the market?

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jarrod said:
Carl2291 said:

The Wii is selling mainly from Nintendo support. Not the 3rd party support like SNES, PSone, PS2...

With poor 3rd party support on Wii (when compared to other consoles), and with Nintendo focusing on N6, i can't see there being THAT much more interest in Wii for new buyers... As the next "Wii Sports", "Wii Fit", Mario... Will all be releasing on the next console.

Again, this thinking is almost entirely debunked by GBA.  That platform has worse 3rd party support than Wii does, and lived a healthy 3 years after DS launched on the back of Nintendo support almost single handedly.  Would you like me to repost the list I made for in that other thread Carl?

If you want to... But i really wouldn't care and probably wouldn't even read it.

Because the GBA isn't the Wii. And the audience that was on the GBA, isn't the same as the one that's on the Wii.



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valen200 said:
HappySqurriel said:

As has already been said, it depends on what you mean by "how long does each console have left on the market?"

I could be wrong but I expect that you will have Nintendo or Microsoft releasing a new console in 2011 or 2012, and the remaining manufacturers will release their next console the following year.

All three consoles have sold enough hardware that (as long as their next generation system is backwards compatible) I suspect there will still be games on store shelves for these systems until 2015 at the earliest; and the Wii might still have software in stores (mostly in bargain bins) for a few years after that.

While many people will probably disagree with me, I think that the PS3 has the greatest risk of rapidly declining hardware sales after the next generation of consoles is released. Unless the PS3 continues to see rapid large price reductions, the PS3 could still be a relatively expensive console which has less processing power, features and is simply “less cool” in comparison to the new consoles; and that makes the PS3 a difficult sell to a lot of consumers. Systems like the Playstation, PS2, Gameboy/Gameboy Color, and Gameboy Advance were able to see decent sales for several years after their successor was released in a large part because they were such cost-effective gaming; many of these systems could be bought for $100 (or less) and you could pick up a massive collection of games (both new and used) for $5 to $20 a piece.

Well with the Xbox to 360 transition Microsoft just quit making the system to encourage upgradeing. Now this gen they have performed much  better overall, so maybe they won't try something similar but I do think it is possible Microsfot might try to force an upgrade again by stopping the 360 production. I could see the 360 thriving like the Ps2 at 100 dollars for several years, if microsoft felt inclinded to do so.

otherwise I agree with what you said.

 

Ps2s are still on the shelf after all this time. $100 dollar systems with a good library can fair quite well.

 

I don’t know ... my expectations for Microsoft are a little different.

While Microsoft could go the opposite direction, I think it would make sense for Microsoft to try to encourage developers who are not fully committed to the next generation of systems to treat the XBox 360, the PC, and their next generation system as a single platform. Most games at the moment already have higher detailed graphical assets and more advanced effects being produced for them because they’re being designed for the XBox 360 and being released for the PC as well. If Microsoft convinces developers that they should release all of their XBox 360 games to their next generation system (with higher detailed assets and better graphical effects while running at a better frame-rate at a higher resolution) they could build a library that is made up of the definitive version of most games without requiring developers to fully migrate to their system. The challenge with this is that Microsoft (and a handful of committed developers) would have to produce the content that really drives sales for 12 to 24 months before other developers were willing to make the switch.



X360 will be manufactured and sold 4-4.5 more years.
PS3 6-7 more years.

Wii maybe 4 more years.

The next Xbox will come out in 2.5 years.
PS4 in 3.5 years.



The HD Twins strategy and longevity will be decided by who blinks first.

If MS produce a sucessor to the Xbox 360 next year expect SONY to redouble their efforts and rush PS4 to market.

SONY will not be happy playing catch up to Microsoft again.

I know that a lot of people say the PS3 is future proof but in a sales battle that is meaningless.

All the people on the street will know is that the PS3 is a last gen machine and therefore "OLD TECH".

Nothing sells to the masses like "new and shiny"



Shorty11857 said:
jneul said:
xbox 360: 1 year
wii: 2-3 years
ps3: 3-4 years

personally i think wii will win this generation, but i hope ps3 takes 2nd by at least 2011

Are you implying that the PS4 won't launch for 3-4 years? I can't imagine Sony launching 3 years after MS it'd probably piss the third parties off a lot

Next Box being far better than the PS3
PS4 being far better than the Next Box


And if MS had a 3 year advantage I doubt third parties would care much for the extra power the PS4 has. I think they'll both launch at similar times they'll want to keep the third parties on their side and allow for good multiplatform engines to be made, so I can't imagine more than a year between their launches

no that is how long i think the consoles will last until sales seriously decline(the x360 prediction relies on natal not making it take off, i still think  people will buy a wii over a x360+natal), the next gen consoles should come within the next 2-3 years, but seen as Sony is still trying to make a profit from PS3, they might not bring PS4 until later.



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looking at it logically Nintendo will be first after the 3DS launch they'll have a period of at least 18 - 2 years before any new "handheld" could be released and since Nintendos profits are based mainly in hardware we'll see a new Wii being announced at E3 2011

it wont be Wii "HD" but it will probably be a normal Wii with some revision of some sort.

regarding the 360 and PS3 there not budging for a long long time

look at it this year is the "360" relaunch plus Natal 2 is in the works so they've got another 3 years easy left before there sales start to drop.

For Sony they are only just starting to get support and show major potential plus Move so they've got another 3 years yet

not to mention the recession is just ended so money is gonna be tight for a few years so no one will be able to afford a new "flagship" console so they'll be no point in releasing one.



PS4 drops before any other console



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I really think that since Nintendo is releasing installments from Mario, Metroid and Zelda either this year or early next year, that it'll be about 2 years before you see a new Nintendo console on the market, as they will likely want to have a strong franchise launch title to accompany it, and historically it's been Mario or Zelda. Of course, this may not be the case as with the enormous success of Mario Kart Wii and the continued strength of Super Smash Bros., either of those franchises could also conceivably launch a new console as well. However, I still believe it'll be a good 2 years before a new console hits, unless Natal and Move do miraculously well. I think you'll see Microsoft look to launch in about 2 years' time as well as it's annual console sales have started to lag, and there's only so much that price cuts can do to stem those losses. Sony I think will hold out a bit longer since they're going to want to try and recoup as much money as they can on the PS3 and won't want to choke off its sales, particularly with the momentum they've built in the last 6-8 months. So Sony is kind of hard to peg down, but I'd guess probably 3 years from now is when they'll launch. Of course, I'm no rocket scientist, and I'm kinda new to following the industry (just always enjoyed playing the games!), but I think those estimates seem reasonable...



Bah!

scottie said:
Squilliam said:
scottie said:
Squilliam said:


I understand, but given the paradigm shift to gaining relatively high margins on the device itself, I cannot see them wanting to continue selling a relatively low margin $100-150 Wii alongside the N7. In addition to that they probably wouldn't want to keep a console on market for the issues of the complexity to support circa 2000 technology 12 years after release with software.

Who would buy a $150 Wii when you could get a $200-$250 N7 with 30* the performance and with whatever new innovative features they might add?

 

High margins on hardware is hardly a paradigm shift. Infact one could argue that if one does a thing for their entire existence (yes, even when they sold card they made a good profit on the hardware), then continues to do it, it is exactly the opposite of a paradigm shift

 

I would certainly buy a $250 N7 over a $100 Wii, as would most of the people on this or any other forum. However, a lot of people would choose the much cheaper option. Like the PS2, the Wii will continue to get the Guitar Heroes and maddens for a long time, and it will have a massive backlog of extended audience Nintendo games

 

Also, 30 tiems the power of the Wii for the N7? Really Squilliam?

Sorry, not a paradigm shift but I couldn't think of anything better to call it.

Why would anyone buy a Wii when they can get a system which plays all the Wii titles, upscales them, plugs into the TV via HDMI and plays all the newer titles for merely 2.5 times as much What does Nintendo get out of it? They get lower margins and no fringe benefits for market share and 3rd party attention in the next generation. It simply doesn't make sense outside of the third world to release a console with such low margins which competes against their own higher margin products.

Yep and I stand by the 30* stance I made. The PS2 was 6.2 Gflops peak and the PS3 is >150 Gflops peak which is about a 30* increase. Since the PS3 has 600M transistors, they ought to be able to fit ~1.2B transistors into ~100mm^2 on the 28nm process at Global Foundries which translates into roughly double the performance and probably more in real world scenarios due to much greater efficiency per transistor, high memory bandwidth etc.

*travels back to the days when PS3's were backwards compatible*

 

Why would anyone buy a PS2 when they can get a system which plays all the PS2 titles, upscales them, plugs into the TV via HDMI and plays all the newer titles for merely 2.67 times as much. What does Sony get out of it? **They get lower margins** and no fringe benefits for market share and 3rd party attention in the next generation. It simply doesn't make sense outside of the third world to release a console with such low margins which competes against their own higher margin products.

 

 

** This is incorrect for the PS3/PS2 situation, why would it be the case for the Wii2/Wii situation?**

People bought the PS2 in greater numbers than the PS3, its hardly a good comparison. For about the first couple of years, most of the good things about the PS3 were the PS2 games you could play and the PS3 didn't have much in the way of compelling game content on its own.

Oh and its doubtful that they would sell the Wii for $100, they wouldn't have the margins to jusify it. The most likely scenario is $150 vs $250.

 



Tease.

ps3 and 360 will most likely release new consoles by 2012 , some news leaks will be released sometime in 2011 and boxes shipped in november of 2012.

nintendo on the other hand is very hard to predict it is still selling very well , but most likely around the same time as the others.

i really hope ps4 and xbox "?" push the hardware quite a bit more, 512 mb of ram is just sad at this point in time. even if the systems cost like 600-800 bucks i dont care , i wanna see crazy amounts of draw distance , full 1080p or higher , full high rez textures and all the goodies at 60fps at least.

oh and i wanna see way more online rpg stuff and way way less shooters