We're only a couples days away from the NA launch of MH3.

What are your guesses for how it'll do?  Both launch and lifetime.

Our only reference is the PSP sales which were 20k opening for MH, 49k opening for MH2 and 44k for MHFU.

In NA Wii has a far larger installed base than PSP, unlike in Japan where the reverse is true.

However, the small but loyal fanbase for MH is on PSP and it's questionable how many PSP owners have Wii's, although I know of a couple MH fans that are buying Wii's just to play MH3.

MH3 is also perhaps the first truly AAA 3rd party game exclusive to Wii and provides an experience sorely lacking on Wii, however that cuts both ways as those Wii-only gamers looking for that type of game will be sure to get it, but most looking for great online action would have gotten an HD system long ago and unless their already MH fans not likely to pay attention to one great game on Wii now whether they own a Wii or not.

In the end I expect it to perform about the same as it would have if it released on PSP in NA so an opening of about 50k, maybe as high as 60-70k if the advertising work.

Lifetime I do expect to be better on Wii than PSP because a good game can sell modest numbers forever at a budget price on Wii and I can see a lot of casual gamers giving this a try at $20.

Best lifetime MH sales on PSP in NA - .39m for MH2.    

I'd guess 600k-1m on Wii ltd in NA but give it 3-4 years to get there.

NA: optimistically 120k, more realistically optimistic 80k-90k first week , 500-600k LT if the online works well enough.

I think it would fail since mostly kids that are more interested in Mario like my little cousin have wii. I also doubt many moms would whant their children to have such a *violent* game for their kids. Most likely thell get Mario game

I have no idea, the advertisement seems to be all over it, but there hasn't been a game like this on Wii before so it's really hard to guess =X

"However, the small but loyal fanbase for MH is on PSP and it's questionable how many PSP owners have Wii's"

This little snippet is true in my area....

There is a large cult following for the game in my town and a lot of them are refusing to get Tri because it's not on PSP. A few of them like me though did buy a Wii specifically for the game, but that number is very small compared to the former.

Monster Hunter Portable 3 however, already has more hype in my area then Tri.....kinda sad really :\

if there are any that have a Wii (or access to one) and refuse to get Tri on it, that shows they are truly beyond stupid. But I can understand PSP owners who do not have the money to buy a/another console (or have other priorities for the money they have) not getting the game.

I do think Capcom made a very big miistake though (as a business) and should have shut up about MHP3 until May. If it were me I would fire the PR person who let this out before May (was it a "May" edition of Famitsu? If so, maybe whoever did this thought it wil come out only in May? )

Three friends of mine have a wii and arn't getting it...

It truely feels like they've been hit in the head.

120k first week would be awesome!!!
The game really is underrated hope it have legs.

And that's data up to the 10th of April, there's still another whole week and a bit of preordering to go

it says in the NA preorders that sales should be well over 100k first week. That's no guarantee but i imagine around 100k for first week is a good guess. I'm thinking we might see it near the bottom of the NPD top 20 in April.