Reasonable...I would expect the sales to taper off after December though. So there is a likely hood that the actual number will be less than your prediction.

I dunno, my thoughts on this are that Sony has already pulled their trump card, the slim. They have nothing but price-cuts and games to carry them for the rest of this gen, and with MS getting Reach and a pretty hyped up motion tracking system, I think Sony will lose much of it's current momentum to that.

Lcyedge, I will respond once I get time later tonight, sorry no time at the present, only have time for a quickpost.
Trid, if MGS is leaning more towards FPS I would predict that the sales of the MGS will be considerably lower in Japan, what you also seem to forget is the fact that the Rising will also be multi plat, so as someone had pointed out in the previous thread "People will be upset by another loss of the exclusive"

all the people who laughed at Sony when they made their 13 million prediction need to say sorry, and yet they still come in here and bash them at how they only just managed to meet that prediction.
I predicted 14million for this year, which will make it fall short, but with GT5 + 3D + PS Move on the way this is definitely a target is possible, Sony Will have to watch MS carefully at fall for price cuts and halo and Natal, this could take away attention from PS3.

it will sell 13 million.... 16 million might be shipped though xD

just so you know, sorry to say it and blah blah blah whatever The Official numbers are 2million higher then VGcharts when i last looked for PS3, so to fe fair lets say the PS3 is at 35.4million Sold. so 50million is possible

I almost said some BAD word about your title,sorry.

Yeah,that's something will happen,but still not for now.

That would require a sustained sales average of some 720,000 units a month. The PS3 isn't even doing that much right now, so I'm going to have to go into the no-chance category. It'll break 40 million, and probably even 45 million, but not 50 million.

FY 2011 ends in march 2012. Essentially just under two years. Some poeple seemed a bit confused.

The general consensus, ie the majority of companies, have a fiscal year ending March 31st, and they call that by the same year it ends in (so FY2011 ends March 31st 2011) different companies have different ways of looking at it, but as the majority do it like I just said, that is what most people are talking about.

Yes Sony is unusual in that it calls the fiscal year by the year it started in, but the OP clearly didn't mean that as he used 50 million as a marker, even the most pessimistic person would say yes to the PS3 passing 50 million before April 2012,.... 1 year earlier has that glimpse of possibility that makes it threadworthy.

Is 50M possible? Yep... 16M over the next 11.5 months...

Is it likely? Too early to say...

Sony seems to be gambling that having a similar motion controller to Nintendo (but better in my opinion), 3D, and Gran Turismo are going to drive sales through the holiday. If they all take off they may be able to... But, two of the three are large gambles.

On the motion controller front we haven't seen a lot of people say "I have to get a PS3 for this". PS3 supporters definately like it based on the boxing demo. And I have to admit it was really a good demo of the controller's use. On the core gamer front I think a lot of the core gamers don't use the living room as much as they use a den, dorm room, or bedroom (kids at home) for gaming. That to me is a big problem for core gamers adopting these controllers because of space.

For 3D it is "unproven" in the home. Personally, I don't like the idea of wearing special glasses to watch stuff in 3D and maybe it is just me, but I feel that 3D is becoming a marketing "gimmick" in retail and movie theatres to try and revive an industry destined to a decline rather then becoming a must have. Finally, how many people who bought flat panel TVs in the past 5 years will be able to justify to their spouses and significant others that they need to get another one now that 3D is supported? Especially, knowing that the next gen 3D won't require glasses and we will probably see another resolution jump.

Finally GT5... Enough said, it will sell and it will help PS3 sales. No doubt about it. Anyone thinking otherwise, really lacks a brain. The franchise is far too strong for anything else to happen.

But, none of this takes into account the competition. There are way too many wildcards to predict with any certainity. Other motion controllers, other bundle/repackaging/slim efforts, price drops, unannounced games, etc. Sony is in better shape overall then last year at this time, but is this last stand before the empire falls or a spring board forward to great success, no one can say for certain.