mrstickball said:
nordlead said: Yes, the mobile phone market is a threat, but it can never kill Nintendo.
Nintendo still has the 5-15 year old market locked up because the parents won't buy fancy phones with 2 year contracts for them.
Either way, the home consoles survive despite there being cheaper PC games, and no market has died because of internet games. Sure the DS/PSP will lose some to the mobile market, but overall there is plenty of room for Nintendo to expand at the same time the mobile market does.
@better value proposition
it depends on your needs. I can buy a phone with a $50/month contract just for phone use and a DS for games, and it will cost me a lot less over 2 years than buying a iPhone with a $100/month contract and games for the iPhone. If you need your phone to surf the internet too, then yea, the value might be there, but personally I'd rather not sink so much money into my glorified pocket watch. |
Don't forget these:
Its called an iPod touch. Apple has sold about ~40 million of these in the past 2-3 years. They have all the functionality of the iPhone in terms of gaming. A parent may be more apt to buy one of these, and get the other features (music playing, web browsing) than a phone due to contracts. There are no contracts with these devices, and they still have the $0.99-$9.99 games which I've seen that some parents are turning to as the price of DS games are just too high.
The cost of a new iPod Touch is less than a Nintendo DSiXL at stores.
That may be how Apple wins over those 5-15 year olds. After all, how many kids have you seen in the past 5 years with MP3 players? What happens when they move on up to an Android-based iPod knock-off player with games? I'd venture to say there is a bigger market for MP3 players that a low-end Android device could handle than there are for dedicated handheld gaming devices in the US.
|
This is why I think the future of gaming is the apple side of things and not Android. There is the iphone starter kit (the ipod touch) which is more or less the same as the iphone minus the calls. Then theres the iphone and now theres the ipad which can easily be ported to if you've already made an iphone game. This gets you in at all price points and avoids the contract and phone bill problems that keep those 13 and under out of the high end phone market.
There is also a big weakness to Android, it has no real central phone or platform or spec. This means that if you develop a game for the Droid there is no guarantee it will work on the upcoming phones from Sony or with older phones like the G1. Developers can patch the games and programs for now because there aren't that many programs and there aren't that many platforms but as both programs they have to support and android platforms grow exponentially the way there are no standards will become more and more of a problem.
This huge discrepancy between phones, especially in terms of power, is part of why iphone and ipod touch games (and especially ipad games) look loads better then Android titles. Nova, Need for Speed Shift, Street Fighter 4 and Real Racing HD look amazing. Android games tend to not look as good and lag pretty badly especially if you don't have the exact phone the game was designed for.
The ipod touch/iphone platform will really be the next big thing I'm reasonably sure especially once gamecenter gets going and Apple pushes the gaming platform thing harder. There is a HUGE billboard in Vegas across from the Wynn where I was staying last time I went a month ago and it non stop has this Apple commercial of great looking games in a montage and the games look at least as good as anything on the PS2 much less PSP (with the exception of a few late titles like God of War 2).
Right now the ipod touch+iphone platform sold over 75 million devices by January of this year and should be over 100 million by midyear even without counting ipad sales. It's not impossible for the iphone platform to overtake the DS in total sales by the end of the year by hitting 150 million first. The platform went from 50 million in Sept 2009 to 75 million in January so at that rate of increase (100% year over year) its not impossible to see 150 million worldwide within the realm of possibility.
Yes not all of these are sales to gamers, but as Reggie from Nintendo used to like pointing out a lot of non gamers bought the DS too. Anyone remember the pretty bad E3 of last year where he kept showing how mom friendly the DS was? I wouldn't be surprised if game sales on non gaming dedicated platforms weren't higher then on dedicated platforms like the PSP and DS by 2012 or 2013 at the latest.
Alternately the android platform has sold a total of about 10 million phones (or the amount of iphones sold in a quarter) and doesn't have a non phone counterpart that shares the OS and apps like the iphone. Until there is an android touch and some better quality hardware with more consistency I don't really see Android as the future of gaming any time soon. It is pretty hard to break out how many people get Android just to avoid ATT (and would otherwise buy an iphone) but I have to guess its a decent share of Verizon Droid customers. I can only hope a big V iphone comes soon.