They'll get both, and you know it, all Nintendo has to do is release one of its big titles

How many years did it take for Nintendo to establish titles that would sell like Mario and Pokemon? The iPhone is 3 years old. Android is about a year and a half. Of course, if your talking free titles, then I'd imagine there are a few that easily rival Pokemon and Mario. Top paid titles have sold around 2 million copies so far, which is decent for the platform. 

I think your being very premature on the subject. I know your one of those diehard Nintendo supporters, but in a few years, we will see a strategic shift to phones. There are too many advantages for developers to go to mobiles. You can argue that Nintendo may not, but if they lose a significant portion of their 3rd parties, they will not make it out unscathed.

Why go to mobile development? Money. The distribution model for cell gaming is much, MUCH more lucrative than any other platform available. It has the advantages of digital distribution (no need to ship copies of titles, much higher revenue share, more control over sales) without the negative aspects (namely the requirement to have an internet connection to download products, as all mobiles have a connection that allows for product downloads).

In time, developers will choose a 70% rev share over a 50% rev share with the DS or PSP. Look at Square - they've already begun to port their portable Final Fantasy titles to the iPhone, and have seen some pretty good success. GTA: CTW has done very well on the platform, and has sold about 300,000 copies (give or take). Not a bad success for a DS port, eh?

5 years. In 5 years, we won't be having these kinds of conversations, because we'll be looking at very convincing sales data that points to mobile gaming. Don't believe me? Ask the developers. I belong to a business group of professional developers via LinkedIn. The question was asked 'how will gaming change over the next 10 years?' - the unanimous answer was that mobile gaming would supplant traditional handheld gaming.

So are you saying cell phone companies thwarted Nintendo's dreams of becoming a major cell phone service provider?

@mrstickball: You know, the issue isn't what the devs think. The issue is how the market reacts.

Right now the mobile phone games market is establishing itself and growing, so everyone is jumping in.

In the 80's, computers were the future of gaming.
Before the current generation started, the future was that there would be only one console.
Did you know this is the last generation of videogame consoles?

What the devs talk is where they themselves are banking the future and where they see other devs going. This is very different from how the customers eventually react.

Oh, and social media gaming is going to devour the mobile phone games market, since everyone starts playing flash-based Facebook games with their phones browser. Duh.

Mediascape on the X10 is great, but that is not gaming. Sony have done nothing to enhance the gaming beyond standard Android gaming, and that is something that they should really work on. Having some sort of remote play for the X10 (and future SE android phones) would be fantastic, and certainly possible. Why not allow me to stream all that media from my PS3?

Having said that, I think that there is one problem with gaming on phones, battery life. All these smart phones suffer when you play games, so certainly the more dedicated gamers are going to stick to having dedicated devices along with their smart phone, that is why I am not getting the PSP phone. Android and iPhone, however, will certainly take A LOT from more casual gamers.

So, let's see what Sony and Nintendo are going to come up with

Cause that is a fair bet ... betting a phone will outsell a handheld...

Thats my point. Its not a fair bet.

Android will have hundreds of phones on the OS linking in to 1 market place. So its safe to assume that the OS will have huge margins against the DS. If Androids sell 2:1, 5:1 or even 10:1, what are the chances that a game like Final Fantasy winds up selling better on Android vs. a DS?

Find me one person who bought an iphone for video games.

There are plenty of people, including myself that own DSes and other handhelds that no longer buy games for them due to mobiles.

Since buying my Android phone, I haven't purchased one DS game. I know many others that are doing the same thing.

Are people buying iPhones for games specifically? Yes. I can find you a few posts. However, I'd venture there are far far more buying them for other reasons, and finding themselves playing games on it, because its a much better value proposition.

Yes, the mobile phone market is a threat, but it can never kill Nintendo.

Nintendo still has the 5-15 year old market locked up because the parents won't buy fancy phones with 2 year contracts for them.

Either way, the home consoles survive despite there being cheaper PC games, and no market has died because of internet games. Sure the DS/PSP will lose some to the mobile market, but overall there is plenty of room for Nintendo to expand at the same time the mobile market does.

@better value proposition

it depends on your needs. I can buy a phone with a $50/month contract just for phone use and a DS for games, and it will cost me a lot less over 2 years than buying a iPhone with a $100/month contract and games for the iPhone. If you need your phone to surf the internet too, then yea, the value might be there, but personally I'd rather not sink so much money into my glorified pocket watch.