GT5 won't pass 5-6mln LT sales and it's pretty obvious why.
let's start with the fact that we can't list Prologue as example of future GT5 sales
- it was the first racing game on ps3 except crappy F1 game, Ridge Racer(and those are very niche titles plus ps3 launch games) and very average Motorstorm,
- it was budget game,
- it had no competition for what 4-5 months before release and something like 4-6 months after launch,
- past GT games success was because casual gamers,
- there wasn't any awareness of competition(especially during psx life and early ps2 era),
- you could pretty much get either NFS, Ridge Racer or GT game in the past,
- ps3 doesn't have diversity if we're talking about audience(it's all about shooters and action games now),
- with exception of first Motorstorm(which sales come mostly from bundles and sequel flopped hard compared to original), last 3 NFS games, Midnight Club, Burnout Paradise and Grid nothing really sold well on ps3 if we're talking about racing title,
- most racing sim fans already chose their console and series to follow - that's Forza, just look at the sales of Forza 1 and 2 on simillar userbase.
Forza 1 sold 1mln copies,
Forza 2 sold 4mln copies,
Forza 3 sold 2.3mln copies in first 24 weeks - more than 80% better than Forza 2 in first 24 weeks.
- there's too much competition and people gone away from games like GT to open world and arcade racers,
- people are tired of waiting and already bought 360 because of Forza series or other racing games,
- demo gave really bad impression of full version GT5 and Prologue showed that Polyphony is far behind developers like Turn10,
- there will be released 5-6 high profile racing games before GT5(if it comes this year of course),