In America, all it needs is for a couple fitness centers or gyms to buy some, people to realize they can have one in their home, soccer mom tells another soccer mom and it becomes the latest fitness craze. Like South Beach Diet, like Low Carbs!!, and all that jazz.

In Japan however, that country doesnt strike me as one with a lot of overweight people. I can see people buying it just to stay in shape though. It'll probably sell 1-2 mil in Japan. Like some others said, it has the brand name, its very casual. Its healthy.

Hit.

I see Wii fit being Nintendo's biggest flop since the virtual boy.
(and feel free to taunt me if I turn out wrong)

The Wii isn't even doing THAT good in JP. It just looks that way because the PS3 sales are so bad. JP's interest has shifted away from consoles to handhelds as the primary gaming device.

Except Nintendo does not market Wii Fit as a game.  If it does well it is because it would have sold to non-gamers.  So it would be irrelevant whether Japan prefers games on their consoles or handhelds.  For example as massive a game as Halo 3 is (and peharps the most hyped game in history) it will never even dream of coming within touching distance (using a 50km pole) of the sales of the Brain Training series.  A huge majority of those sales of Brain training are to people who never played videogames but yet but a DS just to "play" brain training.  Nintendo is banking on the same kind of thing here.  They buy Wii Fit and Wii just to exercise their bodies the same way they bought DS and Brain Training to exercise their brains.

 I'm not suggesting Wii Fit will be a hit.  I really don't know how it will turn out.  Just pointing out whether it does well or not will have nothing to do with whether we game players think it's fun. 

I think it wont have fantastic initial sales but it will have excellent legs - I think Nintendo always seen the Wii's popularity will carry it everywhere except Japan and thats why they always aimed to get this out in Japan before christmas.

They know their market and expect games to be thrown this way in 2008 - think Nintendo could have done with getting more games out for launch that uses it. Maybe a golf game where a combination of the wii board measuring your balance and feet positioning and the wiimote for your swing power etc.

Perhaps an on rails shooter where you actually walk down the route and you could sway either side with the wiiboard knowing if your swaying left or right. This thing if used correctly could be huge - imagining actually crouching to take cover behind and actually popping up to take a shot or leaning out from behind a wall.

It will be a hit in the same way Brain Training 2 is a hit.. It won't do huge numbers but it will sell about 15,000 a week for a while.

I love you sometimes.

I think Wii-Fit is a hit.

It should do at least 350k week one and it will have good legs, 1 million in Japan alone is very likely.

it will do the same to the wii as brain training/nintendogs did to the DS.

That makes no sense. Nothing could be more relevant than preference for handhelds over consoles.

DS and games like braintraining are popular with non-gamers becasue it's caught the attention of what I'll call the cross word playing crowd (or sudoku). I don't see that demographic as being into balance exercise games standing in front of their TV.

I bet a huge part of the DS's popularity in JP is because people take public transportation instead of driving to work. They use the DS to pass the time while riding mass transit or on lunch break. Since you can do neither with the Wii, it's just not nearly as popular.

your not expecting it to sell that much,your hoping it to