Well you could make the argument against the PS3, apart from the fact the term shovelware came from the junk games produced on mass for the wii...
Yes it is a hypothetical argument, but one rooted in, as i said, surveys which suggest many wii owners do not tend to play on their consoles for an amount of time that a serious gamer would.
Problem is the install base, as I've been saying, may not be interested in another console, because they are content with what the wii offers. Clearly they did not want good graphics (360 and PS3 provide better) or media playback, or even a remote that worked 'well' (180ms lag), so why would they buy a better console if they are happy with dated graphics and a laggy pad?

Yes again this is hypothetical, but not something that should just be dismissed as the above point shows that wii owners have not got a want for high quality, therefore why buy a better Wii?

You are making judgements about the quality of Wii games and assumptions about Wii owners which you can't back up and which I would argue don't even matter.  You may not appreciate many of Wii's offerings and you are entitled to your opinion but this 'quality' doesn't speak to the buying habits of the people who play Wii games or their likelihood of supporting Nintendo's new console.  You are using soft data (surveys?) which suggest that these people don't play their games much but in the end it doesn't matter one bit as long as they buy games, and by extension, hardware.

The only hard data we have is attach rate. You are right that the attach rate doesn't mean much when you take a snapshot but (and you'll have to take my word for this if you are new to the site) the Wii's attach rate has been rising for over 3.5 years which tells us that it's established users and new users are continuing to buy games in significant numbers.  Once again it doesn't matter if they only play each game for 5 minutes, the point is they are willing to hand their hard earned over to Nintendo /andor it's third parties.  So what about the behaviour of these people makes you so sure they won't continue to spend their money on Nintendo in the next generation? 

The only data we have says they have been willing to buy games and continue to buy games, which strongly suggest thats they have so far been happy with the products they have purchased and are willing to spend money.  I'm not saying this guarantees their future loyalty to Nintendo or their gaming habit, but why are you so sure that it doesn't.

Well let's look at thte facts of the wii and what a new one could offer:
The wii is technically very dated. The games are graphically dated and AI is not going to be impressive compared to the rest of the market.
The pad response time is about 180ms meaning the owners are not concerned about a responsive pad, nor is it 1:1 without motion +.

What could a new console offer that could entice people who clearly are not bothered about graphics or tech as they have the wii to begin with?

If they wanted cheap gaming they'd have chosen the xbox. If they wanted hardcore games, xbox or PS3. If they wanted state of the art graphics/bluray they'd have gone for the PS3.

So again, what could a new console possibly offer to these people who dont care about graphics, tech or media?

you mean besides better graphics and other power based improvements that could easaly put it above PS360 and if Sony and Microsoft wait longer to launch their next gen multi platform titles that look better than on the competition bringing core gamers etc, 1:1 controls with sub 100ms from launch, nintendo brand recognition, marketing and Games, better online capabilities and whatever new thing Nintendo adds? what more do you want do you think that nintendo would be averse to aiming to bring morecore gamers abord and expanding their market even more? I mean who knows what new innovation Nintendo could bring to their next console and from what I have seen they don't even realy need whatever it will be.

Thing is you just ignored my points, so I'll repeat myself;

If wii owners cared about graphics, they wouldn't own a wii as it is by far the worst of the 3 consoles for graphics. If they cared about responsive controls, they wouldn't have bothered with the wiimote and would be gaming on a 360 or PS3. The ones that care about 1:1 control own motion plus. 

What you can derive from wii owners are that they don't care about graphics, AI etc and generally the things improved by next gen consoles. Unless Nintendo go down the route of making something radically different, the wii owning market has shown itself not to be core gamers, meaning that you cant expect to treat them as such e.g. pretty graphics sells games, more power sells consoles etc.

you mean besides better graphics and other power based improvements that could easaly put it above PS360 and if Sony and Microsoft wait longer to launch their next gen multi platform titles that look better than on the competition bringing core gamers etc, 1:1 controls with sub 100ms from launch, nintendo brand recognition, marketing and Games, better online capabilities and whatever new thing Nintendo adds? what more do you want do you think that nintendo would be averse to aiming to bring morecore gamers abord and expanding their market even more? I mean who knows what new innovation Nintendo could bring to their next console and from what I have seen they don't even realy need whatever it will be.

You are making judgements about the quality of Wii games and assumptions about Wii owners which you can't back up and which I would argue don't even matter.  You may not appreciate many of Wii's offerings and you are entitled to your opinion but this 'quality' doesn't speak to the buying habits of the people who play Wii games or their likelihood of supporting Nintendo's new console.  You are using soft data (surveys?) which suggest that these people don't play their games much but in the end it doesn't matter one bit as long as they buy games, and by extension, hardware.

The only hard data we have is attach rate. You are right that the attach rate doesn't mean much when you take a snapshot but (and you'll have to take my word for this if you are new to the site) the Wii's attach rate has been rising for over 3.5 years which tells us that it's established users and new users are continuing to buy games in significant numbers.  Once again it doesn't matter if they only play each game for 5 minutes, the point is they are willing to hand their hard earned over to Nintendo /andor it's third parties.  So what about the behaviour of these people makes you so sure they won't continue to spend their money on Nintendo in the next generation? 

The only data we have says they have been willing to buy games and continue to buy games, which strongly suggest thats they have so far been happy with the products they have purchased and are willing to spend money.  I'm not saying this guarantees their future loyalty to Nintendo or their gaming habit, but why are you so sure that it doesn't.

'Quality' of a console is entirely based on opinion.  And yours is plain to see.  And while some people may be prone not to like the Wii for its 'lack of graphics' or 'lack of technical specs', its plain to see the majority of people this gen like the Wii for reasons beyond that.

And there's nothing to say a more powerful and better looking successor to the Wii would do worse than the Wii did based on system performance.  Especially if it came out with no compeition.  That's even more backwards thinking.