1. People do not buy on faith.

Sony are not Apple. They don't have millions of people assuming great success just because its the next product in their esteemed lineup. So that means that the average person will be comparing it to what is already available out there and they certainly will not buy on the expectation that Move will have a great lineup of titles they will compare the Move titles on release to launch Natal titles on Xbox and Wii especially which has a fully fleshed out lineup.

2. Whats a PS3?

They wouldn't exactly have the greatest mindshare and the expectation of people who haven't got a PS3 or Wii determines how they look at the product. Because the PS3 isn't known for the type of games that the Wii has, it'll take a lot of advertising simply to make it known that the PS3 is like the Wii. But people in general don't pay nearly as much attention to advertising as they do to what their friends tell them and the PS3 doesn't have the market share in the right circles so its a chicken/egg problem here. They need the market share in different segments of the market before they are taken seriously but they won't get any real market share until people are familiar with their products.

3. Sharing is caring.

The Wii is a virus? Yes. Nintendos main titles are all titles that people can share with other people, so they can experience the console first hand which explains the Wiis viral like success. How much will it cost to fit out 2-4 players and will they have a game as compelling as Wii Sports to get people to try the game out a friends house? Sony has neglected local multiplayer on many of their titles thus far which won't help them spread the word and in addition to this people buy the Wii with the expectation of sharing the experience with friends. Can they build up the same expectation with Move? If I were them I would bundle two wands with every pack, but thats just me.

4. Competitors

Nintendo has some hellishly good games for the markets they compete for. Third parties complain that they cannot compete with Nintendo, and now they've had over 5 years to perfect their game. Trying to compete with a competitor like Nintendo from launch would be difficult, but coming late into the party Nintendo already has an established record and they could still pull out a couple of huge hits for the latter half of 2010 to make Sony's life difficult. Every month the number of unattached potential customers declines. Will there be many left in early 2011, especially in terms of trying to build up momentum.

Microsoft ahh, well we actually don't know what they intend to do with their product. Its one confusing picture there. However they are betting a lot on Natal, probably more than Sony are with Move. Their intentions are clear even if the precise details are not. They are spending up large to buy up support for their product, support which may be exclusive against Move. A flash in the pan is still a setback for Move because with a large pot of money being thrown around support for new controllers can only stretch so far. At best it'll limit early momentum which is critical as Nintendo are chomping the market at a manic rate, at worst the controller is actually good for something and then consumers will either default back to the safe option (Wii) or be split 3 ways. Neither is good for gaining critical mass.

So there you have it. Thanks for reading.

Comments?

They may buy the console on faith, but not accessories. Ha, im still on sixaxis and im sure there are many people like me as well.

Ten million? Why does it have to sell ten million?

Actually I was thinking more like 20M would be ideal, 10M is the minimum for continued support in my mind anyway. Its a target market which will at least ensure some exclusive support for the Move with interesting game concepts.

How much would it need to sell not to be considered a flop?

And, who's gonna track this thing sales? It's not a platform, its a pair of controllers.

10 million wouldn't be that good. Sony is likely projecting 15-25 million. Otherwise, what's the point?  Nintendo may end up moving 30-50 million Wii Motion Plus units.

I agree (I know right?)

The distinct differenence between Natal and Move is that Microsoft seem to be backing their product 100% and it's not like the Wii mote (something different)

Beause of those two things I believe Microsoft can get over the troubles Sony will face.

I suspect they are holding their cards close to their chest. They managed to get a whole bunch of people excited over some very basic technology demos without actually revealing anything of substance about their actual direction. My respect for Natal comes from their apparant desire to get everyone with an Xbox 360 onto Natal which implies some heavy bundling is possible. They are betting a lot on it and who am I to criticise their controller when they have shown very little of what they actually intend to do with it?

They are a strong contender even if I haven't got a clue as to what they are going to do!

its all irrelevant , i know many people on my list that are buying it people want this sort of change especially when you have the means to better an experience.

all the shooters , rpgs future rts titles or all those titles that seem to work so well on pc can now be ported over with the same controls. (starcraft, world of goo, mmos)

fighters and action games can still have their gamepad but other titles that require better controls will give you the option of using the move or will be specially design just for the move i think people will be surprised how well this does plus all the support content they will have for it.

im buying it 100%

Let's just hope they hire the right people to do their marketing.. cause it has been bad the last few years..