As much as i wish death upon it.

Sony have shown they are damn good at doing the impossible. If they really push it, its hard to see it not being successful.

We'll know more about it tomorrow I guess.

Personally I have never seen nor heard anyone (outside of this site) talking about Natal, or the Arc. Even the friends I have who work in the game industry have never mentioned either. If one's going to fail, then both probably are.

Well, what I want to know is, how many units does it have to sell in order for YOU guys consider a success?

there is an easy answer to that: MORE!!

Arc will not succeed. It might sell decently, but it will not achieve it's intended goal.
It is aimed at usurping Nintendo's strength. This will not happen. The market that bought the Wii is not interested in buying a PS3+Arc. Why? Because they are not interested in Sony's current software library. If they were, they would have a PS3 already. Therefore, the competition will be thus;
Wii=199, games=49, Motion+=19, Software=4 year library
PS3=299, games=59, Arc=Let's say, 59 with a camera, to be nice, Software=15? 20?

I agree with your points, although I think the signs are Sony are going to get behind this a lot more.

They clearly started this gen with the idea they could just toss out the tech and let developers and others actually make they take hold and deliver games for them, but I think they see now that's not good enough - I think the signs are they are going to push this a lot more than the original EyeToy, etc. and other stuff.

threads like this make me laugh, especially when everyone jumps on board and assumes arc will automatically fail, what people don't get here is arc appeals to both hardcore and casual users, which wii has not appealed to the hardcore user as much, so it shall be successful, but not as successful as the wii already is

I don't see everyone jumping on, I see different views, and a decent conversation on the topic at hand.

And people are making predictions, giving opinions, and conversing, Hence: one of the main reasons of a Forum.

Not to mention half this site is based on predictions, if you 'assume' otherwise, then your on the wrong site.

I don't think the Arc will fail, but I can't imagine that 3rd party developers are going to go crazy releasing good games.

Alot of games such as Madden '11 will get Arc Support, but they will not be exclusive Arc games. Not many 3rd party publishers will want to try to sell a game to a fractured user-base. Arc, by definition, is a niche fanbase because it was released mid-console.

The only way Arc will be a success is if Sony releases a plethora of good 1st party games. The only reason the Wii has been a success is because Nintendo kept releasing good games. The 3rd party developers haven't been motivated enough on the Wii to release many quality games-- I think it will be even worse with Arc since the Arc user-base will be much, much smaller than Wii.

Other than that, expect to see lots of cross-ports between Wii and Arc. There might be a couple big-budget games for Arc such as a Star Wars light-saber game, but there can only be so many games advertised at a niche target.

Arc has a major uphill battle to be successful, especially gauging on the limited success of the Eye Toy.