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Forums - Sales Discussion - So who thought Sony was crazy when they said the PS3 will sell 13m for 2009

Avinash_Tyagi on 26 February 2010
REDZONE said:
The people that compare the Wii to the PS3 have to be retarded.The Wii=$199 casual gamer,the PS3=$299 hardcore gamer HD.Now it's only obvious that the Wii will sell more at the price it's at.STOP comparing Wii sales to HD consoles sales.

Every sale that goes to Wii, weakens the PS3's position further, how can you not compare



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

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joeorc on 26 February 2010
slowmo said:
joeorc said:
saicho said:
joeorc said:
dolemit3 said:
joeorc said:
dolemit3 said:
If 13 million per year is a crazy sell through, the expectations must be really low nowadays from Camp Sony.

13 million for the year is just being realistic in my opinion.

Pretty much what Sony big wigs were thinking when they were planning to do the price cut/Slim combo.

you stated this:

the expectations must be really low nowadays from Camp Sony.

13 million system's Sold through is not low at all. for a $299.00 priced system, that doese what the playstation 3 does.

hell would you call currently 8.48 million system's sold per year pretty low world wide because that's what the xbox360 is doint right now and the year is not even over with and it is projected to sell over 10 million system's for the year. would you call that low. 8 million system's a year is not something to sneeze at.

the first xbox was at in 4 year's roughly 26 million total system's sold through

that's 6.5 million system's sold a year

the top system sold last generation was the PS2 140 million /10 year's =

14 million per year, and that was the leader.

it's not too far fetched to think 13 million is now low it's pretty d@mn high since what the PS2 was able to do is 14 million per year would you call that low, when the PS2 was the last generation's leader in world wide console's sales?

bacuase you are using the peak (or near peak) for the PS3 numbers to compare to the average annual number of PS2. If PS3 would average 13 million after 10 year (or even 5 years), it would make more sense.

has the PS3 hit it's peak ?

that's the point many people think this generation is at it's peak based on previous generation which I do not think that's even remotely true at all.

 every one pointing out aligned sale's date per year when the PS3 is only been on the market for 2 year's in some cases and only 3.5 in the extreme.

and they alway's point to how the PS1 did or the PS2 did..

which is pretty pointless because the PS2 disd not start out at $500.00 or $600.00

the PS2 did not have as many incentives to purchase as the Playstation 2  did in it's 3rd year as the PS3 does, yes the PS2 had great game's a as a great incentive to purchase the system, but release the PS2 today or better yet launch the PS2 in 2005 how would it have done against the xbox360?

that's the big point the PS2 and the PS3 are not even in the same legue or even in the same sport.

 

You made an error by quoting an average for shipping figures, this might be Sony's peak year so it needs to be hitting peak year shipping figures of the PS2, not an average for comparisons sake.  You actually brought the PS2 into the discussion joeorc, so nobody else is misguided in comparing past and present it was your statement oringinally fella.

my point is why must the PS3  hit it's peak right now this year?

no  i brought in the PS2 for sale's because many people refer to system's "PEAK" YEAR BASED ON THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM'S DATA!

which you cannot expect that to be the case because already this generation has broke so many of those past trend's there is no real way to even compare the two , but many seem's to do just that when they view these generation's system's peak year. because previous generation peak year's seem to be 5 th year.

Previous generation's did not have the last place system getting the development support that the PS3 is getting

last generation did not have a $500.00 or $600.00 game console sell as well as the Playstation 3 has

last generartion did not have very robust online income generating stream's as this generation does which mainly keep's developer's to keep support because Digital download's are one of the thing's that developer's are exploiting to day moreso than any previous generation.

this generation is  not the same generation of system's that was from 10 year's ago the market is no where near the same when it come's to the number of income stream's these companies have to day than the had 10 year's ago the landscape is not the same.



I AM BOLO

100% lover "nothing else matter's" after that...

ps:

Proud psOne/2/3/p owner.  I survived Aplcalyps3 and all I got was this lousy Signature.

saicho on 26 February 2010
joeorc said:
slowmo said:
joeorc said:
saicho said:
joeorc said:
dolemit3 said:
joeorc said:
dolemit3 said:
If 13 million per year is a crazy sell through, the expectations must be really low nowadays from Camp Sony.

13 million for the year is just being realistic in my opinion.

Pretty much what Sony big wigs were thinking when they were planning to do the price cut/Slim combo.

you stated this:

the expectations must be really low nowadays from Camp Sony.

13 million system's Sold through is not low at all. for a $299.00 priced system, that doese what the playstation 3 does.

hell would you call currently 8.48 million system's sold per year pretty low world wide because that's what the xbox360 is doint right now and the year is not even over with and it is projected to sell over 10 million system's for the year. would you call that low. 8 million system's a year is not something to sneeze at.

the first xbox was at in 4 year's roughly 26 million total system's sold through

that's 6.5 million system's sold a year

the top system sold last generation was the PS2 140 million /10 year's =

14 million per year, and that was the leader.

it's not too far fetched to think 13 million is now low it's pretty d@mn high since what the PS2 was able to do is 14 million per year would you call that low, when the PS2 was the last generation's leader in world wide console's sales?

bacuase you are using the peak (or near peak) for the PS3 numbers to compare to the average annual number of PS2. If PS3 would average 13 million after 10 year (or even 5 years), it would make more sense.

has the PS3 hit it's peak ?

that's the point many people think this generation is at it's peak based on previous generation which I do not think that's even remotely true at all.

 every one pointing out aligned sale's date per year when the PS3 is only been on the market for 2 year's in some cases and only 3.5 in the extreme.

and they alway's point to how the PS1 did or the PS2 did..

which is pretty pointless because the PS2 disd not start out at $500.00 or $600.00

the PS2 did not have as many incentives to purchase as the Playstation 2  did in it's 3rd year as the PS3 does, yes the PS2 had great game's a as a great incentive to purchase the system, but release the PS2 today or better yet launch the PS2 in 2005 how would it have done against the xbox360?

that's the big point the PS2 and the PS3 are not even in the same legue or even in the same sport.

 

You made an error by quoting an average for shipping figures, this might be Sony's peak year so it needs to be hitting peak year shipping figures of the PS2, not an average for comparisons sake.  You actually brought the PS2 into the discussion joeorc, so nobody else is misguided in comparing past and present it was your statement oringinally fella.

my point is why must the PS3  hit it's peak right now this year?

no  i brought in the PS2 for sale's because many people refer to system's "PEAK" YEAR BASED ON THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM'S DATA!

which you cannot expect that to be the case because already this generation has broke so many of those past trend's there is no real way to even compare the two , but many seem's to do just that when they view these generation's system's peak year. because previous generation peak year's seem to be 5 th year.

Previous generation's did not have the last place system getting the development support that the PS3 is getting

last generation did not have a $500.00 or $600.00 game console sell as well as the Playstation 3 has

it's not the same generation.

Please see the bolded part in Red.

The fact remains that you use the best annual number PS3 has so far to compare to the average annual number for PS2.



MikeB predicts that the PS3 will sell about 140 million units by the end of 2016 and triple the amount of 360s in the long run.

Twistedpixel on 26 February 2010
joeorc said:

yea does this sound like Sony expected the PS3 to sell more than the PS2 right from the start?

"I'm aware that with all these technologies, the PS3 can't be offered at a price that's targeted towards households. I think everyone can still buy it if they wanted to," said Kutaragi to a mostly Japanese crowd. "But we're aiming for consumers throughout the world. So we're going to have to do our best [in containing the price]."

this was back in 2005 before the PS3 released in 2006

that does not sound like they expected the PS3 to sell as well as the PS2 right from the start.

the PS2 released for $300.00

the playstation 3 released for $500.00 and $600.00

there was quite an upgrade from the PS2 to the PS3 in hardware. for $200.00 the price was expensive, some buyer's think it was worth it other's did not, but it does not take someone being a rocket scientist to see that even Sony knew the price would be one of the thing's that would slow the sale's of the PS3.

the very fact that it did sale pretty d@mn good for a $500.00 and $600.00 system is d@mn feat in of itself.

Not d@mn good enough if they cut the price by a 3rd within 6 months of EU release and 12 months of US release. Oh and the PS3 was less than the PS2 launch price after 6 months not accounting for inflation. 430E vs 400. It was only significantly more expensive in America and perhaps Japan. Everywhere else I saw it had the PS3 at or cheaper than PS2 price at launch or soon after.

http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=PS2&reg1=Europe&cons2=PS3&reg2=Europe&cons3=PS&reg3=Europe&weeks=156

Thats with pretty similar prices so theres no argument that its got anything to do with launching too high. Its probably got more to do with the strong Wii sales and decent Xbox 360 sales as both systems got compelling content out the door much faster than Sony did with the PS3.



Do you know what its like to live on the far side of Uranus?

joeorc on 26 February 2010
saicho said:
joeorc said:
slowmo said:
joeorc said:
saicho said:
joeorc said:
dolemit3 said:
joeorc said:
dolemit3 said:
If 13 million per year is a crazy sell through, the expectations must be really low nowadays from Camp Sony.

13 million for the year is just being realistic in my opinion.

Pretty much what Sony big wigs were thinking when they were planning to do the price cut/Slim combo.

you stated this:

the expectations must be really low nowadays from Camp Sony.

13 million system's Sold through is not low at all. for a $299.00 priced system, that doese what the playstation 3 does.

hell would you call currently 8.48 million system's sold per year pretty low world wide because that's what the xbox360 is doint right now and the year is not even over with and it is projected to sell over 10 million system's for the year. would you call that low. 8 million system's a year is not something to sneeze at.

the first xbox was at in 4 year's roughly 26 million total system's sold through

that's 6.5 million system's sold a year

the top system sold last generation was the PS2 140 million /10 year's =

14 million per year, and that was the leader.

it's not too far fetched to think 13 million is now low it's pretty d@mn high since what the PS2 was able to do is 14 million per year would you call that low, when the PS2 was the last generation's leader in world wide console's sales?

bacuase you are using the peak (or near peak) for the PS3 numbers to compare to the average annual number of PS2. If PS3 would average 13 million after 10 year (or even 5 years), it would make more sense.

has the PS3 hit it's peak ?

that's the point many people think this generation is at it's peak based on previous generation which I do not think that's even remotely true at all.

 every one pointing out aligned sale's date per year when the PS3 is only been on the market for 2 year's in some cases and only 3.5 in the extreme.

and they alway's point to how the PS1 did or the PS2 did..

which is pretty pointless because the PS2 disd not start out at $500.00 or $600.00

the PS2 did not have as many incentives to purchase as the Playstation 2  did in it's 3rd year as the PS3 does, yes the PS2 had great game's a as a great incentive to purchase the system, but release the PS2 today or better yet launch the PS2 in 2005 how would it have done against the xbox360?

that's the big point the PS2 and the PS3 are not even in the same legue or even in the same sport.

 

You made an error by quoting an average for shipping figures, this might be Sony's peak year so it needs to be hitting peak year shipping figures of the PS2, not an average for comparisons sake.  You actually brought the PS2 into the discussion joeorc, so nobody else is misguided in comparing past and present it was your statement oringinally fella.

my point is why must the PS3  hit it's peak right now this year?

no  i brought in the PS2 for sale's because many people refer to system's "PEAK" YEAR BASED ON THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM'S DATA!

which you cannot expect that to be the case because already this generation has broke so many of those past trend's there is no real way to even compare the two , but many seem's to do just that when they view these generation's system's peak year. because previous generation peak year's seem to be 5 th year.

Previous generation's did not have the last place system getting the development support that the PS3 is getting

last generation did not have a $500.00 or $600.00 game console sell as well as the Playstation 3 has

it's not the same generation.

Please see the bolded part in Red.

The fact remains that you use the best annual number PS3 has so far to compare to the average annual number for PS2.

and since the ps3 has only bin in the market 3 .5 year's total. did the PS3 start out at an entry price of $300.00?

no?

was the PS2 xbox360, or game cube ERA have a homeforeclosure, and unemployment #'s as high as it is right now?

no?

so what should you use for the average?

the PS3 has only been on the market at most 3,5 year's an that is not even every where in every region

that's like saying well takinging in aligned launches, yea you could but yet again the PS2 was not @$500.00

inflation 10 year's ago to to day would not be the big point it's the IDEA you as the Consumer would have to pay $500.00 or $600.00 that same thing would have had the same effect on the PS2 as it did on the PS3 because many consumer's will only pay what they feel they can pay.

$500.00+ is still $500.00

that perception has not changed even from 10 year's ago

and people expected Sony to think that that would be any different today as it would have been back than?

 



I AM BOLO

100% lover "nothing else matter's" after that...

ps:

Proud psOne/2/3/p owner.  I survived Aplcalyps3 and all I got was this lousy Signature.

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Twistedpixel on 26 February 2010

People say the world isn't the U.S. when Greenburg speaks his mind, how about you consider that too Joeorc? Europe is the acid test because the PS3 was for the most part a similar price to last generation there.



Do you know what its like to live on the far side of Uranus?

joeorc on 26 February 2010
Twistedpixel said:
joeorc said:

yea does this sound like Sony expected the PS3 to sell more than the PS2 right from the start?

"I'm aware that with all these technologies, the PS3 can't be offered at a price that's targeted towards households. I think everyone can still buy it if they wanted to," said Kutaragi to a mostly Japanese crowd. "But we're aiming for consumers throughout the world. So we're going to have to do our best [in containing the price]."

this was back in 2005 before the PS3 released in 2006

that does not sound like they expected the PS3 to sell as well as the PS2 right from the start.

the PS2 released for $300.00

the playstation 3 released for $500.00 and $600.00

there was quite an upgrade from the PS2 to the PS3 in hardware. for $200.00 the price was expensive, some buyer's think it was worth it other's did not, but it does not take someone being a rocket scientist to see that even Sony knew the price would be one of the thing's that would slow the sale's of the PS3.

the very fact that it did sale pretty d@mn good for a $500.00 and $600.00 system is d@mn feat in of itself.

Not d@mn good enough if they cut the price by a 3rd within 6 months of EU release and 12 months of US release. Oh and the PS3 was less than the PS2 launch price after 6 months not accounting for inflation. 430E vs 400. It was only significantly more expensive in America and perhaps Japan. Everywhere else I saw it had the PS3 at or cheaper than PS2 price at launch or soon after.

http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=PS2&reg1=Europe&cons2=PS3&reg2=Europe&cons3=PS&reg3=Europe&weeks=156

Thats with pretty similar prices so theres no argument that its got anything to do with launching too high. Its probably got more to do with the strong Wii sales and decent Xbox 360 sales as both systems got compelling content out the door much faster than Sony did with the PS3.

yes it does, inflation is like sying $500.00 is not $500.00 its the perception of that value, if the PS2 was released in the USA at that Price how would it have done even than?

i bet along the same line's as the PS3 has done. you can have great support for a system, but if the perception of the entry price is too high it would not matter!

example:

many people today who have been keeping pace with this , would have said the PS3 was too expensive @ $500.00+ but many went a head and paid $400.00 for the xbox360. it's like the old afddage it's not $20.00 it's $19.95.

many people complained about the Price of $500,00 for the PS3 BUT PAY $400.00 FOR SEAT'S TO A OSU home game that they get to go to one!

value perception has more to do with it than just price.



I AM BOLO

100% lover "nothing else matter's" after that...

ps:

Proud psOne/2/3/p owner.  I survived Aplcalyps3 and all I got was this lousy Signature.

joeorc on 26 February 2010
Twistedpixel said:
People say the world isn't the U.S. when Greenburg speaks his mind, how about you consider that too Joeorc? Europe is the acid test because the PS3 was for the most part a similar price to last generation there.

the entire world is not the US, and the same goes for you as for saying the UK is the acid test!,

there are many market's that the PS3 was just shipped too are they also not an ACID test?

you cannot have it both way's

perception of a product's value is as important as is it's price.

that very core principle has not changed since the day's of trading and barter.

which hold's more value:

oil or gold?

gold or platnum?

it's the percieved value.

football game ticket's for one game or the PS3.



I AM BOLO

100% lover "nothing else matter's" after that...

ps:

Proud psOne/2/3/p owner.  I survived Aplcalyps3 and all I got was this lousy Signature.

slowmo on 26 February 2010

@Joeorc - I deliberately didn't bring up the numbers of the PS3 because you cannot win that debate against people who have a diffferent opinion to you. I understand every argument you're placing in favour of your point but the weight and relevance you place on those points is tiny in my opinion which is the opposite view to yourself. I'll simply say the demand for the PS3 has been lower and never will be on par to the PS2 (you must be able to at least admit this).

I'm pretty sure by the way that 2010 will be the peak year for the PS3, perhaps 2011 at a BIG push but its all decline after that.

Back to the OP though, the question is did we think Sony was crazy with their shipment figures, the rest of this debate isn't really answering that but going off topic due to one poster saying how the mighty had fallen effectively. 13 million was a lot of consoles to ship but in the grand scheme of things its not that crazy when you compare it to what the PS2 was capable of and the Wii so in that regard, no they weren't crazy, just optimistic. Fair assessment joeorc?



Twistedpixel on 26 February 2010
joeorc said:
Twistedpixel said:

Not d@mn good enough if they cut the price by a 3rd within 6 months of EU release and 12 months of US release. Oh and the PS3 was less than the PS2 launch price after 6 months not accounting for inflation. 430E vs 400. It was only significantly more expensive in America and perhaps Japan. Everywhere else I saw it had the PS3 at or cheaper than PS2 price at launch or soon after.

http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=PS2&reg1=Europe&cons2=PS3&reg2=Europe&cons3=PS&reg3=Europe&weeks=156

Thats with pretty similar prices so theres no argument that its got anything to do with launching too high. Its probably got more to do with the strong Wii sales and decent Xbox 360 sales as both systems got compelling content out the door much faster than Sony did with the PS3.

yes it does, inflation is like sying $500.00 is not $500.00 its the perception of that value, if the PS2 was released in the USA at that Price how would it have done even than?

i bet along the same line's as the PS3 has done. you can have great support for a system, but if the perception of the entry price is too high it would not matter!

example:

many people today who have been keeping pace with this , would have said the PS3 was too expensive @ $500.00+ but many went a head and paid $400.00 for the xbox360. it's like the old afddage it's not $20.00 it's $19.95.

many people complained about the Price of $500,00 for the PS3 BUT PAY $400.00 FOR SEAT'S TO A OSU home game that they get to go to one!

value perception has more to do with it than just price.

Why are you talking about dollars? Im saying that in Europe the price has never been a factor because for the most part the price has always been as high as it was. Since price is removed as a factor then you have to look at the good work of the competition for the reasons why the PS3 performed poorly relative to the PS2 in that region.

Within 6 months of the PS2s launch there were a lot of shortages, within 6 months of the PS3s launch the price was too high. That doesn't make much difference in terms of overall demand for that region as one roughly counters the other and then the PS3 price drops and availability is no longer constrained so therefore extremely comparable.

The world doesn't revolve around the U.S. and the price of the Playstation there. Read the graph again and see that the PS3 falls behind the PS2 and price was never a factor. The Wii stole the Playstation market and ditto for the Xbox 360 to a lesser extent. The PS3 got schooled because the other consoles got appealing content and experiences out faster and more often in the first couple of years. It had nothing to do with the PS3 being too expensive.



Do you know what its like to live on the far side of Uranus?