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HD Penetration.

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Kwaad said: vanguardian1 said: And my point is that it won't matter to most people. So your TV goes black, and you no-longer are able to watch TV... nope. who cares. You already rotted your brain out watching 'that 70's show' in SD, before they cut the signals. Black screen... fuzzy screen... Image... it dont matter.
Well they have already cut of the analog signal in Sweden, that doesn't mean that we need a HD tv, we only need a digital box, which cost around 500 SEK (if you don't want any extra channels, if you want it is often free). You can still use a SD tv on digital brodcast.



 

 

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Kwaad said: grat's on 100 ;p I just didnt feel like posting it. In refrence to my numbers. that link I posted said something like 31.4million households have HDTV. I then went to the uscensus website, and found average household population in america... 2.54 or something like that. So 300,000,000/2.54 = 118,110,236 households. 31,400,000/118,110,236 26.585% of US households have HDTV. HDTV sales are expected to almost double in 2007 from 2006. That would add at least another 10-20million HDTVs... 10% are re-buys. 9-18million more households. That would bring it from 26.5% to 35%-44% (at least)
Cool, good logic And yeah I heard 26% too so yep that's pretty accurate :) Thanks for the 100 props heh, i try to only post when it's worth it. 100 is a lot for me on a forum hah



And in the US, you do realize that the government will be covering the cost of this converter. It was part of the deal that allowed them to specify a cutoff date. A date which has already been pushed back from 2006 to 2009. So most people will just get their free converter, plug it in, and not see any change at all.



(sigh) So much ignorance, so little time... First and foremost, Digital TV does not equal HDTV. The two terms are not interchangeable. So let's start with Digital TV: Digital TV Most Standard Definition (SD) TVs sold these days include a digital tuner. Here's one at Best Buy if you need one: Cheap SD Digital TV So most of the SD TVs sold today will continue to work well past 2009. They'll just be displaying a picture that is 480i. Besides new TVs, about 85% of American households get cable television today. I don't need a converter to watch cable TV today, and unless a cable provider chooses to terminate analog signals I will not need a converter in 2009. If a cable operator chooses to do that, they will probably provide a converter or risk some losing customers. As noted before, for the small minority who wants a digital converter for an older TV will be able to get a rebate from the government. So the turning off of over-the-air analog broadcasts is pretty moot for most Americans. HD TV Like millions of Americans, I have an older TV and refuse to get a new one at this time. My primary reason is the initial and ongoing costs for going high def. (Not only do you have to pay a pretty penny to get an HD TV, but it also costs more to get the digital cable with those pretty looking channels.) I also have a concern regarding the quality and longevity of the units and know that all of the options out there have some issues to still be worked out. (Plasma takes too much electricity, LCD is still a bit slow and dark though the brand new units are getting much better, and DSP may require expensive light bulb changes.) And I don't watch that much television anymore. All of the shows I do watch I download from the internet for viewing on my PC or laptop. (I keep a bucket next to them in case I feel the need to hurl due to the image quality. ) So I'm not getting one... yet. I'm sure adoption will continue to be high, but like all things it will slow down as you cross over the half way point. So let's talk about all these people taking the plunge and buying a TV that is HD capable. One of the biggest problems with your logic is the assumption that people who buy HD TVs must want HD programming (or an console that outputs an HD signal). This is like saying those who buy SUVs want to drive off-road. Like the SUV owners, people are looking for a big TV and all of the ones are the market these days happen to be high def. So there's this misconception that if you're in the market for a large, flashy flat panel TV, you must want it because it's HD. (Vice versa though, if you buy a console for HD, you better be ready to pony up the bucks for an HD TV, otherwise it's not going to look anywhere near as nice as those screen shots on the back of the box.) Conclusion Most American homes have two or more TVs and I doubt that people are replacing all of their units when upgrading. So HD TV penetration rates my continue to increase quite well over the next couple of years, the majority of TVs out there will continue to be SD sets. You're welcome to look at these numbers and think that they're a great sign for the systems with HD output, but I don't think there's going to be the same correlation between HD TV adoption and HD Video Games adoption. Here's a great resource on Digital TV and HD TV: http://www.hdtvinfoport.com/Digital-TV.html



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Very good post Steve, however my research showed that there was a 26% penetration of HDTV's. I didn't do a lot of searching or checking, however I believe this could be an accurate figure. If that is just Digital TV's then there is a very big problem for the penetration of the HDTV's. I don't see Kwaad's original point, other than pushing the agenda that the PS3 and Xbox 360 have a very growing market, but to think that EVERYONE that buys a HDTV is going to buy a PS3 or an Xbox 360 is just completely nuts and your SUV analogy is a good one. I really need to dig up my other post about this... infact I will do that now. BRB



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OriGin said: And the points about HDTV and SDTV penetration? What the? 18% penetration is what I understand the US to be at, at the moment, 50% of TV's purchased are HDTV's last year... great excellent, 100% of the population bought TV's last year? YEAH RIGHT. If 50% of TV's purchased were HDTV's and there is 18% penetration of HDTV's then that means 36% of the population bought new TV's last year?? again YEAH RIGHT. Realistically 20% or LESS of the population bought new TV's last year and therefore 50% of these purchases may have been HDTV's which then gives 10% of the population buying HDTV's last year. Take out the rich people who upgrade to a new and better TV every one or two years, or buying a second or third one for a household and you maybe have 5% of the population buying new HDTV's which means the maximum that the HDTV penetration can reach by the end of 2007 if it continues at the same rate is 23% - albeit it will probably increase in rate, and therefore maybe 30% of homes will have HDTV's. This leaves 66 million people with HDTV's. 43 million people bought PS3's in America, that's less than 30% of the total population that had TV's purchased a PS2. Therefore its safe to assume that this number is the maximum percentile of a group that will purchase a console, this drops because of the price and other things but that's another argument. If we take 30% of 66 million that leaves 19.8 million. This figure is a rough guide as to the MAXIMUM user or sales number the PS3 can achieve (without taking into consideration a LOT of things). 19.8 million people aren't going to buy a PS3 for MGS4 or FFXIII or Motorstorm or ANY of those games, so they need a broad range of games to cater for this 19.8 million people. Take everything I just said with a grain of salt as all of my points are rhetorical with no real figures to back them up, but using the numbers both sides of the argument have sprouted it's better to look at the TOTAL equation. I haven't taken into account things like the people who will buy 360 or PS3 and use it on an SDTV, there will be many I am sure, but then the appeal of the console goes away somewhat because the HD benefit is much larger.
+ or - new information gathered I think that suits here well.



My point on HD penetration is. This comes up from time to time. Alot of people say there just arent enough people with HDTVs. There are an estimated 32.5million households with HDTV right now. As I say, 2007 will be a HUGE year for HDTV. I think it will be the turning point and I think HDTV will hit 35-50% households by the end of the year. The revelance on the console wars is. 2/3 are meant for HDTV. The other is not. Meaning the market for the non HDTV one is shrinking, and the HDTV ones are growing. It's not as simple as that. But I would say 30% of people wont upgrade to HDTV for about 10-30 years. So really what I'm saying is. 70% will be damn near 100% (actual) household. As there are alot of people, especially older people, who just dont care at all about TV/computers/games. That's why I say 70% is more like 100%, as the other 30% arent really 'in the market'. It's just funny, how so many people say HDTV sales are horrible... their not.



PSN ID: Kwaad


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LOL I love the way you word it against the Wii Kwaad, by saying that the market for one of them is shrinking. That is complete rubbish. You actually believe that because people are buying HDTV sets that it will have any impact on the Wii because it DOESN'T have HD output? That sort of thinking is completely un-justified. It's like saying that people with Standard Def televisions wont by PS3 or Xbox 360, which is completely un-true also. However I'm willing to say that I believe people who have HDTV's would be more likely to purchase the Wii than someone who has an SDTV would by a PS3 or 360.



OriGin said: LOL I love the way you word it against the Wii Kwaad, by saying that the market for one of them is shrinking. That is complete rubbish. You actually believe that because people are buying HDTV sets that it will have any impact on the Wii because it DOESN'T have HD output? That sort of thinking is completely un-justified. It's like saying that people with Standard Def televisions wont by PS3 or Xbox 360, which is completely un-true also. However I'm willing to say that I believe people who have HDTV's would be more likely to purchase the Wii than someone who has an SDTV would by a PS3 or 360.
I sure wouldnt have bought my PS3 without a HDTV. Hell, I bought a new HDTV, becuase my old one looked like crap on the PS3, and it didnt have HDMI.



PSN ID: Kwaad


I fly this flag in victory!

was 17% in 2005 is projected 50% low 80% high by 2010