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Locked: Why the Wii Won't sell 80m+

Forums - Sales Discussion - Why the Wii Won't sell 80m+

MS and Sony are handicapped by their deep pockets though, they can't just throw money around like one would think without upsetting CEOs, investors and stock holders. If anything, they're more vulnerable than Nintendo for even the slightest upset could cause higher ups or stock holders to force them to fold their gaming divisions. While this isn't very likely at the moment they're not in the position to be reckless or lose anymore money than what they already are. If Sony's pockets were really so deep they'd just sell the PS3 at even more of a loss and stomp the competition, however, they can't, they're limited by all the shared interest in their money and profits.



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I always thought that $ony's in "large" debt, and didn't their loan class (couldn't think a better word, english isn't my primary language) lowered just a while ago ?



Nothing's cheaper than something free.

F1 vs FOTA, when too much power is in couple peoples hands.

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Sony's pockets aren't that deep. They only have around $4-5 billion in cash reserve. Nintendo has more cash than Sony, probably around $5-7 billion. Microsoft has the most cash, around $38 billion.

MS has to be careful about how they use that cash however. Remember a few years back when MS was almost split up? They can't simply sell things at a loss to drive the competition out of business. That is in violation of anti-trust laws. 



well my persoanl opinion still sticks the wii wont sell 80 million since its a fad while its posting up great numbers and game sales from what ive seen casual and non-gamers buy main titles occasionally and most of their games within the first two years then they stop buying on the other hand hardcore gamers tend to keep buying essentially making the profits for any company for example when me and my friend had ps1's in the beggining he as a casual gamer had more games. but by the launch of the ps2 he had 15 titles and i had 37 not to mention i had sold another 12 off. with the ps2 it was a similiar story he had 12 titles i had 32 with 5 others being sold off by the time of the ps3 launch. essentailly hardcore gamers will buy ps3 and 360 yes and in the long run theyre profitable since they keep on buying games. also as an employee of ebgames many peoples reason for not buying a ps3 at that moment was that they just got a job and were going to buy one in the summer or they were going to wait for better games to come out so they would buy one end of summer buy a couple games during the fall and spring such as(gta 4, timecrisis4, heavenly sword, and final fantasy 13, final fantasy versus 13) well thats my opinion the wii wont sell 80 million due to a non-gmaer base and essentially crappy games(excluding zelDA)



Who cares? The GameCube sold less than 25 million copies. At current rates, the Wii will top that within 2 years of launch. That's got to make Nintendo and its fans happy. It also reaffirms Nintendo as a vaild choice in the market for the next generation, where it was a joke in the last. This will put the Wii2 (or whatever) in a good position when it launches. Moreover, as the console's price drops and games get released (especially from 3rd parties who are now beating themselves up for putting 3rd stringers on Wii games), the sales are likely to accelerate. It is not unreasonable to expect a final total of 60 million or more. Now consider that there were, roughly, 170 million consoles sold in the last generation. Presumably this generation will sell a similar number, though a little higher (note: I'd love to know how many of those millions are 2nd purchases to replace faulty consoles). That's going to leave about 110-130 million consoles to be divided between the 360 and PS3. I think the most likel result will be near parity among all 3 consoles, and that too woudl have to be seen as a wiin for Nintendo (and Mircosoft).



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Wii is a fad, lol. I swear, people come up with the craziest of theories to justify their insecurities in market changes.



marc said:
As much as price is a factor, at the same time, it's not if the software and appearance of the system are less than satisfactory. A good example is the N64/GC versus the Saturn, PS1, PS2, and Xbox. The GC launched at $200 versus the PS2's $300 and the Xbox's $300 and ended up in last place. The N64 launched at $200 versus the PS1's $300 and Saturns $300 and ended up 2nd place. Now, there's never been as big of a gap (in the fact that the prem 360 sells the bulk of the systems @ $400), but again, it's an advantage, yet not the primary reason the Wii sells out. The big issue is the fact that Nintendo HAS to sell the Wii at a significant profit to stay afloat. The PS3/360 does not (although they have to at some point). The GC is still around $100 (where I live, mind you), while the PS2 is $129. 2 years from now, the Wii could easily be going @ $150 or less. But at the same time, it'd be just as easy for a core 360 to be @ the same price. Remember, a $100 price drop on the 360 core (which actually happened in December thanks to $100 gift cards) puts it at $200: $50 less than a Wii. I'm not saying that Nintendo would allow a 360 Core to be cheaper in the US or Europe than a Wii, but it's do-able by MS if they wanted to.


We arent taking into account the fact that the human population has also increased significantly. We have a lot more people now than we did 10 years ago which will obviously translate to more console sales in general even if nothing else changes. Add to that the fact that customer demographics has changed. They have changed so much that looking at prior sales may no longer have much power anymore. In 2007, almost anyone can be a gamer regardless of age and sex whereas back in 1997 you could pretty much generalize gamers as young males. So we have more people, and a larger gamer demographic but more competition with 5 active consoles + PC's. The potential for 100m sales is definitly there, but it all comes down to how the competition reacts and I doubt they will just let Nintendo stomp all over them without a fight even if it costs them. Dont forget how deep MS & Sony's pockets are. Taking a loss one generation will not kick them out of the market and the profit can be made up next generation.

 

The human population has "only" increased a few hundred million in the last 10 years, and most of that growth is in poor regions, where Wiis, 360s and PS3s are going to be quite rare.


 



cerdsmania said:
to tell you all my opinion the wii may sell 80 miliion units but not to hardcore gamers who keep consoles going. if u look at what the wii is selling most it is wii play and wii sports. okay but compare to xbox360 which is selling crackdown lost planet,gears of war and so. those games are for serious gamers not just the non-gamer. the ps3 on the other hand it top sellers are resistance:fall of man, motor storm, and virtua fighter 5. these are real games. as in theyre games meant to be played not wii sports or wii play or even raymond raving rabbids. these arent games you enjoy. and personally when u buy a hdtv u already have the money so many people just buy a ps3 or 360 to go with it. and if i made any grammar mistakes please excuse me cuz my spelling sucks.

First, I don't know the actual breakdown of casual vs traditional gamers so far as Wii sales go. I would be willing to venture a guess that a large number of households contain both, so the difference may not be as big as some are making it out to be.

Second, casual gamers often includes adults with well paying jobs and disposable incomes. Its going to be hard to predict exactly what their long term purchases will look like. God knows 8 years ago I would never have predicted that so many casual movie watchers would have purchased so many DVDs.

Thirdly, what Nintendo and Sony and 3rd parties care about is not so much which games are sold as they are how many copies of a given game are sold. So far, Nintendo's top titles are handily outperforming Sony's top titles.  Third parties are especially taking note of this, and are beginning to move their better development teams onto Wii titles. The question is - what are they being moved from?

Finally, you can't really look at WiiPlay or WiiSports as typical games. WS is obviously packed in with the console, so there's no way to tell who would have bought it had it been a separate purchase. And many gamers are buying WiiPlay simply because they want the 2nd controller, and given the success of WS, are willing to spend the extra $10 to give it a shot. Rayman Raving Rabids is a better sample, and that's the 2nd or 3rd best selling Cube game after Zelda. The other game in that trio is, I think, Red Steel, which does appeal to the traditional gamer more than the casual one, so I'm not sure there is any discernable pattern emerging yet. The real test will be when games like Brain Age, EA Playground, and Carnival Games, come out against Mario, Metroid and Smash Bros.

 The real trick here is that Nintendo is trying to engage the casual gamers so that they don't continue the same lacksidasical pattern you cite in previous generations. If Nintendo fails, they may still have enough traditional gamers (who are more interested in the Wii than they ever were in the GCN), but if they are successful (as they have been with the DS), then all past precedent has to be tossed out the window, and Sony and MS will have to hurry up and adjust to a brand new paradigm.



"The Wii doesn't break like the PS1 and PS2 did so that's another chunk out of sales considering the sheer number of Wii owners who won't have to buy a new Wii."

 

yo, she nailed it...how many ps2's did you have to buy? SHEET i bought 2..

many ppl i know bought 2-4..

 PS2 sales = INFLATED

Nintendo products last 25+ years......i have NES's that still work!!!

 



I am WEEzY. You can suck my Nintendo loving BALLS!

 

MynameisGARY

misterd said:
cerdsmania said:
to tell you all my opinion the wii may sell 80 miliion units but not to hardcore gamers who keep consoles going. if u look at what the wii is selling most it is wii play and wii sports. okay but compare to xbox360 which is selling crackdown lost planet,gears of war and so. those games are for serious gamers not just the non-gamer. the ps3 on the other hand it top sellers are resistance:fall of man, motor storm, and virtua fighter 5. these are real games. as in theyre games meant to be played not wii sports or wii play or even raymond raving rabbids. these arent games you enjoy. and personally when u buy a hdtv u already have the money so many people just buy a ps3 or 360 to go with it. and if i made any grammar mistakes please excuse me cuz my spelling sucks.

First, I don't know the actual breakdown of casual vs traditional gamers so far as Wii sales go. I would be willing to venture a guess that a large number of households contain both, so the difference may not be as big as some are making it out to be.

Second, casual gamers often includes adults with well paying jobs and disposable incomes. Its going to be hard to predict exactly what their long term purchases will look like. God knows 8 years ago I would never have predicted that so many casual movie watchers would have purchased so many DVDs.

Thirdly, what Nintendo and Sony and 3rd parties care about is not so much which games are sold as they are how many copies of a given game are sold. So far, Nintendo's top titles are handily outperforming Sony's top titles. Third parties are especially taking note of this, and are beginning to move their better development teams onto Wii titles. The question is - what are they being moved from?

Finally, you can't really look at WiiPlay or WiiSports as typical games. WS is obviously packed in with the console, so there's no way to tell who would have bought it had it been a separate purchase. And many gamers are buying WiiPlay simply because they want the 2nd controller, and given the success of WS, are willing to spend the extra $10 to give it a shot. Rayman Raving Rabids is a better sample, and that's the 2nd or 3rd best selling Cube game after Zelda. The other game in that trio is, I think, Red Steel, which does appeal to the traditional gamer more than the casual one, so I'm not sure there is any discernable pattern emerging yet. The real test will be when games like Brain Age, EA Playground, and Carnival Games, come out against Mario, Metroid and Smash Bros.

The real trick here is that Nintendo is trying to engage the casual gamers so that they don't continue the same lacksidasical pattern you cite in previous generations. If Nintendo fails, they may still have enough traditional gamers (who are more interested in the Wii than they ever were in the GCN), but if they are successful (as they have been with the DS), then all past precedent has to be tossed out the window, and Sony and MS will have to hurry up and adjust to a brand new paradigm.


 You, sir, win my "best new poster of the week" award. Congratulations. 



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